Kristie L. Ebi, Exponent Health Group Joel Smith, Stratus Consulting Inc.

1. Vulnerability and Adaptation AssessmentHands-on Training Workshopfor the Africa Region- Integration and Communication of V&A Analysis-Maputo, Mozambique18-22 April 2005 Kristie L. Ebi, Exponent Health Group Joel Smith, Stratus Consulting Inc.

2. Outline • Integration of Results • General Points • Cross sector and multi-sector integration • Setting priorities • Vulnerability • Adaptation • Communications • Conclusions

3. Why is Integration Important? • Necessary for ranking vulnerabilities and adaptations • Impacts do not happen in isolation • Impacts in one sector can affect another • Some sectors are affected directly and indirectly • Others just indirectly • Sometimes a change in one sector can offset the affect of climate change in another sector

4. Integration of Impacts • Two Main Types • Cross-Sector Integration • Link related Sectors • Multi-Sector • Economy or System wide • Integrated Assessment Models • Economic Models

5. Impacts in One Sector Can Overwhelm Direct Climate Effect • In a recent study, crop yields in California were generally estimated to increase with climate change • In one scenario, a 25% reduction in water supply results in a net loss of $1 billion/year to California agriculture

6. Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT SCENARIOS Population, Development, Technology WATBAL Streamflow PET SCENARIOS GCM WEAP Evaluation Planning CLIMATE Precip., Temp., Solar Rad. CERES Crop water demand CROPWAT Regional irrigation

7. Key Indicators for Egyptian Baseline (1990 absolute; 2060-optimistic/pessimistic percentage change from 1990)

8. Multi-Sector Integration

9. IMAGE Model

10. Regional/National Economic Models • Quantitative way to examine climate change market impacts throughout an economy • Problem with non-market impacts • Often macroeconomic models or general equilibrium models • Require a lot of data • Can be expensive • Can be complex • Communication of assumptions can be a challenge

11. An Example of a Regional Model

12. A More “Simple” Approach • Add up results sector by sector • Limited by what is known within sectors • Problem of how to integrate across multiple end points • Need to account for a lot of sectors • Does not capture sectoral interactions

13. Estimates of Damages for India by Mendelsohn

14. Can Also Measure # of People Affected • Millions at Risk study did this • Global burden of disease

15. At a Minimum • Should at least qualitatively identify linkages and possible direction of impacts • If only can examine crops, not water supply, then identify how change in water supply could affect agricultural production

16. Setting Priorities • Vulnerability • Adaptation

17. Prioritization of Vulnerabilities • It can be quite useful for • Focusing adaptation measures • Monitoring • Adaptation

18. Process is as Important as Outcome • This is an expression of values, not a purely analytic exercise • Need to include stakeholders and policy makers • The following are tools that can be useful in setting priorities • Whether you use qualitative or quantitative approach, the most important thing is JUST DO IT

19. NAPA Process

20. C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 System/ Region/ Hazard Social impacts Economic impacts Environmental impacts Political impacts Ranking A B C Adaptation Policy Framework Table 4: Ranking of priority systems/regions/climate hazards

21. OECD Method

22. Ranking Adaptations • Screening • Multi-criteria assessment • Benefit-cost analysis

23. Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism Adaptation Measure in Antigua

24. Multi-Criteria Assessment

25. Adaptation Decision Matrix for Agriculture in Kazakhstan

26. Ranking Based on Scenario

27. Benefit-Cost Analysis • Estimate all benefits and costs in a common metric to determine whether benefits > costs • Monetary values often used • Difficulty: what to do about non-market benefits or uncertainties • Difficulty: requires a lot of data and analysis

28. BCA Example: Sea Walls in Kiribati

29. What to Use

30. Presenting Resultsin Your National Communication

31. UNFCCC Decision 17/CP.8 “. . . non-Annex I Parties should provide information on their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change, and on adaptation measures being taken to meet their specific needs and concerns arising from these adverse effects.”

32. Communication • The National Communication (NC) needs to clearly communicate vulnerability and adaptation findings • Fine to describe methods and results of analyses • But, needs to synthesize and integrate results • The NC needs to clearly communicate • Who and what is vulnerable • How that may vary across time and geographic region • What is needed to be done to adapt • Where and when

33. First Thing: Remember Purpose • Who is the audience for the NC? • What kind of information do they need? • How can it most effectively be presented to them?

34. Presenting Vulnerabilities • We’ll cover two things • Clearly presenting results • Presenting who and what is most vulnerable

35. Clearly Presenting Vulnerability Findings • The key is • Organization • Clarity • Simplicity

36. Seychelles First NC

37. Tanzania’s First NC

38. From Users Manual

39. Relative Direction, Magnitude, and Certainty of Impacts

40. Presenting Adaptation Results • Present identified adaptations in a clear manner • Evaluate or rank adaptations • Consider possible effectiveness within your country

41. Seychelles: Adaptations

42. South Africa: Evaluation

43. Conclusions • Integration is important to at least identify related impacts • Analysis is desirable because there can be surprises • Integration can also be useful for examining total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities • Clear synthesis and reporting of results is important • Analytic methods exist for analyzing and ranking adaptations

44. Some Final Thoughts

45. “To a Hammer, Everything Looks Like a Nail” • Methods or models are a means to get an answer • Before addressing the answer, we must consider the question(s) being asked

46. These Questions are Key Factors in Determining How to Conduct Your Study • You should not begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with these questions • Select methods and models that best help you answer the questions