1 / 61

Climate to Fish to Fishers: Coupled Model Development

Climate to Fish to Fishers: Coupled Model Development. Kate Hedstrom, ARSC/UAF September, 2010. I am not alone!. Enrique Curchitser, Rutgers Kenny Rose, LSU Jerome Fiechter, UCSC Alan Haynie, NOAA-AFSC Jon Wolfe, Brian Kaufmann, NCAR Seth Danielson, UAF

gwidon
Download Presentation

Climate to Fish to Fishers: Coupled Model Development

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Climate to Fish to Fishers:Coupled Model Development Kate Hedstrom, ARSC/UAF September, 2010

  2. I am not alone! • Enrique Curchitser, Rutgers • Kenny Rose, LSU • Jerome Fiechter, UCSC • Alan Haynie, NOAA-AFSC • Jon Wolfe, Brian Kaufmann, NCAR • Seth Danielson, UAF • NSF funding via CAMEO, Multi-scale modeling • ARSC

  3. Outline • Overall goals • Coupled models • ROMS • NEMURO • Climate • Fish • Fishing fleet • How are we doing?

  4. Early 1970’s Mid1970’s 1980’s Changes in species composition in small mesh bottom trawls in Pavlof Bay. Rev. Aquat. Sci. (1992)

  5. Pacific Decadal Oscillation “warm phase” “cool phase” From Nate Mantua

  6. Regime shift and PDO From Nate Mantua

  7. The state of the fisheries

  8. Another way of looking at it

  9. It is not a joke

  10. Changes in Fish Composition • When they happen, is it overfishing or is it climate change? • Goal is to model the complete range of processes from climate to fisheries to get both top-down and bottom-up effects • Can we do it?

  11. BEST-BSIERP

  12. End-to-End Models • They are coming! BEST-BSIERP is one example of how to do it • They are primarily built from existing stand-alone components • NPZ and fish models meet at zooplankton • Closure for getting phytoplankton right • Fish food

  13. Some Problems • Zooplankton biomass vs. stages • Functional groupings • Diet shifts in fish • Prey selection by zooplankton • New organisms • Jellyfish • People • Validation

  14. A Simpler Problem? • Sardine – Anchovy cycles • Well-studied species with population cycles observed in many systems • Teleconnections across basins • Good case study • Forage fish tightly coupled to NPZ • Important ecologically and widely distributed • Low frequency variability Provided by: Salvador E. Lluch-Cota Source: Schwartzlose et al., 1999

  15. Californian Anchovy Larval Abundance April 1965 High Anchovy Abundance April 1952 Low Anchovy Abundance Source: MacCall, 1990

  16. Our Model Components • Community Earth System Model (CESM) • Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with NEMURO NPZ • Superindividual model of sardines and anchovies (Rose) • California and Mexican sardine fishery (Haynie)

  17. Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) • Community coastal ocean model • Over 750 svn downloads • In active development with: • online discussion forum • documentation wiki • bug tracking system • Annual meetings, outside the US in alternate years

  18. More ROMS • Finite volume • Hydrostatic • Terrain-following vertical coordinate • Structured horizontal grids • MPI parallel • Several NPZ options

  19. ROMS Developers

  20. Some Regional Domains

  21. Eastern Bering Sea • Goal is to model: • Ocean physics • Phytoplankton bloom • Spring, fall, ice algae • Zooplankton • Fish • Fishing fleet • Timing of spring bloom depends on sea ice melt

  22. Model Validation From Seth Danielson

  23. Model Validation From Seth Danielson

  24. Summary of Bering Sea • More model comparisons to come (Seth’s thesis) • Hindcast first, future scenarios to come • Proof of concept that model will run with forcing and boundary conditions from global climate model • One-way nesting

  25. ROMS-CESM Coupling • With: • Enrique Curchitser (Rutgers) • Bill Large (NCAR) • Jim Hurrell (NCAR) • Jon Wolfe (was at NCAR) • Brian Kaufmann (NCAR) • Jerome Fiechter (UCSC) • Fei Chai (UMaine) • Justin Small (NCAR)

  26. Downscaling Upscaling The multi-scale problem Dickey, 1991, 2003

  27. SST, August 18, 2000

  28. Background and motivation • WCRP strategic framework • Improved predictions of changes in statistics of regional climate, especially extreme events, are required to assess impacts and adaptation • Recognize the need to improve representation of weather and climate link • Working hypothesis is that the internal dynamics of the system are more accurately represented at higher resolution

  29. Nested Regional Climate Models (NRCM) at NCAR • Seamlessly integrate weather (WRF), high resolution ocean (ROMS) and climate models (CESM) to: • Better capture and investigate important space/time scale interactions • Develop approaches for reducing biases • Inform the development of next-generation Earth System Models • Apply the model to challenging science and important societal questions • Assist decision-makers to plan for regional changes

  30. POP Re-designing the CESM

  31. CESM Strategy • The coupling interval is one day, with the atmosphere running ahead • The composite ocean receives hourly winds, etc. and interpolates to ROMS grid(s) • POP runs for that day, sends “curtains” out for ROMS nests • ROMS runs for that day • Composite ocean merges SST from both ocean models for CAM

  32. The new global SST (NCAR-CESM)

  33. A closer look at the down-scaled region (temperature and wind anomalies)

  34. Summary of NRCM • Mechanics of coupling is working • Three-year old code base • Currently updating to new codes • Funded project to study air-sea carbon fluxes in three upwelling systems

  35. Fish (and Fishers) Project • With: • Jerome Fiechter (UCSC) • Kenny Rose (LSU) • Enrique Curchitser (Rutgers) • Bern Megrey (NOAA-AFSC) • Alan Haynie (NOAA-AFSC) • Miguel Bernal (IEO, Spain) • Salvador Lluch-Cota (CIBNOR, Mexico) • Others…

  36. Full Life Cycle • Superindividuals • Reproduction • Growth • Movement • Feeding and spawning • Mortality • Fishing • Predators • Starvation

  37. Many Challenges • Behavior should include spawning and feeding migrations, predator avoidance, etc. • Growth requires knowledge of bioenergetics – grow or make eggs? • Mortality from starvation – don’t all starve at once • Spawning new superindividuals in bounded memory space

  38. Methods • “Fish” as modified floats • Fixed number of fish per species per yearclass • Limit number of yearclasses, killing off too old fish • Feedback to NPZ-type model, NEMURO for now (PICES) • Fish-eat-fish and fishing fleets require knowledge of fish in i,j space

  39. fish_list

  40. Fish Growth • Compute change in weight • Bioenergetics-based • Consumption determined by: • Zooplankton in cell (NEMURO) • Other individual fish in the neighborhood • Once mature, allocate energy to growth or reproduction

  41. Movement • Eggs, yolk-sac and larvae are moved by the currents • Juveniles, sub-adults and adults move by behavior • Two choices (for now): • Kinesis (Humston et al., 2004), sum of random plus moving to better temperature • Railsback, look for food

  42. Using Humston Behavior

  43. Using Railsback Behavior

  44. Create new Superindividuals • Fixed number per day of spawning – spawning happens in a fixed time window • Find out how many adults spawn that day, how many eggs • Could have: • No eggs • Fewer cells with eggs than new SIs • More cells with eggs than new SIs

  45. Bisection • Master node builds an egg array with all of the eggs in each cell • Array is for the entire grid • Successively divide up domain in i,j directions until available superindividuals are filled • Toss out empty partitions • Keep a sorted (by egg count) linked list of partitions

  46. Bisection

  47. Another Example

  48. Test of Spawning

More Related