ViTAL WP5 Data analysis Progress report

1. ViTAL WP5 Data analysis Progress report Centre for Infectious Disease Control Laboratory for Zoonoses and Environmental Microbiology Ana Maria de Roda Husman, Martijn Bouwknegt, Saskia Rutjes, Katharina Verhaelen and Froukje Lodder

2. Human and Animal viruses • Human sources of pathogenic viruses • HAdV • NoV, HEV, HAV > Feed back into QVRA • Animal sources of pathogenic viruses • PAdV, BPyV > To trace sources of contamination and to target interventions

3. hAdV pAdV bPyV NoV HAV HEV Indicator virus Virus contamination and reduction in food production chain Primary production Processing Retail Pathogenic virus

4. GANTT diagram (excl. possible extension) T5.1 Data Gathering Workshop T5.2 Analysis of gathered data T5.3 Modular Process Risk Model (MPRM) development T5.4 Prioritization of risk assessment criteria T5.5 Assessment of foodborne virus risks along the developed MPRM T5.6 Quantitative Viral Risk Assessment on intervention measures

5. T5.1 and T5.2 Workshop and Analysis of gathered data • Type of data • Virus concentrations in sources of contamination, during processing and at point-of-sale • Consumption of shellfish, fresh produce, soft fruits and pork meat products • Dose-respons relationships for HAV, HEV, NoV • Quality of data • Quantification of viruses • Tool to collect data • Data analysis tool

6. T5.3 Development of Modular Process Risk Models (MPRM) Steps • Definition of the statement of purpose, the (microbial) hazard and the food product • Description of the food pathway • Building the MPRM model structure by splitting up the food pathway into the modules • Collection of the available data and expert opinions according to the model structure developed • Selection of the model to be used for each module • Plug the available data into the model • Exposure assessment

7. T5.4 Prioritization of risk assessment criteria • Virus concentration in contamination source • Methodology of virus detection • Volume tested • Recovery • Detection limit • Natural inactivation pre-harvest • Sunlight • Temperature etc. • Treatment post-harvest • Disinfection • High pressure • Radiation • Consumption • Dose-response

8. Deliverables (excl. possible extension)

9. D5.1 Guidance document on data collection and analysis • Different food chains • Different phases • Identification of sampling points • Sample sizes • Virus detection by (RT-)PCR Changed to Individual Guidance documents Subject to further discussion by Martijn

10. D5.2 Tool for data analysis

11. D5.3 Document on available models • Literature review prepared in the first year • On Vital website

12. D5.4 Risk assessment model • Models needed for selected production chains • Soft fruits • Salad vegetables • Pork meat • Shellfish • Target viruses • NoV • HAV • HEV

13. D5.4 Possible RA model outcome f ( D; α, β) = 1 – 1F1(α, α + β; −D) Boxplot of the probability of NoV infection based on oyster monitoring data and household outbreak data (Rodriguez manuscript in preparation) Distribution of norovirus PDU concentration per oyster in outbreak case Risk of NoV infection and risk of illness per number of oysters consumed for screening data

14. D5.5 Modular Process Risk Model MODULE Natural Inactivation Freezing Frozen soft fruits Manure Harvesters’ hands Packaging Fresh soft fruits Irrigation water Washing Soft fruit products Latrines Chlorination Surface / Ground waters Door handles Production Processing Point-of-Sale

15. End of project deliverables D5.6 Comparison of assessed risks • Data needed from data gathering labs • Data collection sheet D5.7 Data gap analysis • Produced from D5.3 and D5.6 D5.8 Intervention strategies and their efficiency • In conjunction with T6.2 and in addition to D5.6