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International conference Millennium Assessment: Bridging scales and epistemologies

International conference Millennium Assessment: Bridging scales and epistemologies. Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity ; Opportunities and Limitations of the GLOBIO3 model and the Natural Capital Index (NCI) framework. New Challenges. Millennium development Goals Johannesburg 2010 target

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International conference Millennium Assessment: Bridging scales and epistemologies

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  1. International conference Millennium Assessment: Bridging scales and epistemologies Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity;Opportunities and Limitations of the GLOBIO3 modeland the Natural Capital Index (NCI) framework

  2. New Challenges • Millennium development Goals • Johannesburg 2010 target • CBD biodiversity indicators • Applications in the MA • National (BINU) and regional EU / OECD applications

  3. Outline presentation Previous work GEO3 and PEEP land use change agricultural intensity climate change GLOBIO 3 applied to Latin America Biodiversity Assessment Ecuador Upscaling national to global Downscaling global to national 2010 target Global interactive research

  4. Key questions to be addressed by GLOBIO 3 • What is changing: • biodiversity (ecosystems, species and their abundance) • natural areas • expected trends (scenario’s) • geographically explicit • most vulnerable areas • Why is it changing • different pressures • relative importance of pressures • What can we do about it • effects of response options (e.g. to reach policy targets)

  5. Comparison pressure indices:Global (GEO3) and Regional EU (Peep)

  6. Contrasting trends of biodiversity impact: forest in EU

  7. Suggestions for improvements Methodology for construction of pressure indices Considering agricultural landscapes (agroecosystems) dose-respons relationships from species abundance literature Upscaling local information Downscaling global information

  8. Overall Biodiversity B = LU * Agr* For * C * N * F B = Biodiversity of a region LC = biodiversity value for land cover type Agr = biodiversity reduction due to agriculture For = biodiversity reduction due to forestry C = biodiversity loss due to climate change N = biodiversity loss due to Nitrogen pollution F = biodviversity loss due to Fragmentation

  9. Data flow in the Global Biodiversity Model

  10. Biodiversity impact from land use change

  11. Examples from literature

  12. Biodiversity effects of Land cover change

  13. Biodiversity impact from agricultural intensity

  14. Comparison organic and conventional Farming

  15. Biodiversity loss due to of landuse change

  16. Expected ecosytem quality in agroecosystems based on average production intensity (per Farming System) Average based on land use change only 30%

  17. Biodiversity loss per farming systemGLOBIO3 pressure approach (2000) Remaining biodiversity? Forest based farming system 94% Coastal plantation & mixed 73% Intensive Highland Mixed North Andes 53%

  18. Siglas Arbor A. erosión Arroz Banano Cacao Camar Frutales Maíz Natural Pastos forestales bha 0,10 1,00 0,40 bhai 1,00 0,40 bhc 0,25 0,10 0,25 0,10 0,40 0,10 0,10 1,00 0,40 bhmoc 0,25 0,10 0,10 1,00 0,40 bhmor 0,10 0,25 0,10 1,00 0,40 bsmor 1,00 bsoc 0,25 0,10 0,25 0,10 0,40 0,10 0,25 0,10 1,00 0,40 h 0,10 0,10 0,25 0,10 0,30 0,10 0,25 1,00 m 0,10 0,10 0,10 1,00 n 0,10 1,00 ph 0,10 0,25 0,25 1,00 0,20 ps 0,10 1,00 vhi 0,10 0,25 0,25 1,00 0,20 vsi 0,25 0,10 0,25 0,25 1,00 0,20 Biovalores (ecosistema x producción)

  19. Ecosystem quality in Ecuador

  20. Ecosystem quality for agroecosystems per ecosystem in Ecuador

  21. Área intervenida, mosaico y natural 50-70% ecosystem quality

  22. Biodiversity impact from Climate Change Shifts of Biomes (IMAGE) and species (Euromove)

  23. Biodiversity impact from Climate Change

  24. Downscaling from the global modelBiodiversity Situation 2000 NCI Loss by land use change 27% Loss by international air pollution 0% Loss by climate change 2% Loss by agricultural intensification 5% Loss by forest explotation 1% _______________________________________ Natural Capital (2000) 65%

  25. Trends of biodiversity change on quality of ecosystems

  26. indicators models monitoring Interaction of stakeholders with reference to the evaluation of the 2010 target

  27. End

  28. Which process to indicate? • The uniformity process of biodiversity loss: • many rare species becoming more rare and • few common species becoming more common • (change of abundance or distribution of species) Main factors: - habitat loss - loss ecosystem quality

  29. The Natural Capital Index: Biodiversity =area size x ecosystem quality Ecosystem quality = average abundance/distribution of a set of characteristic species in relation to an ideal, original or historical reference

  30. Natural Capital 2001 for Ecuadorian ecosystems

  31. Comparison biodiversity state (NCI) of two ecosystems in Ecuador 87,23 7,35 77,05 2,83 bha = 87,23 5,1 28,20 7,14 15,96

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