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The 1995 Canadian Firearms Legislation - Ten Years Later Gary Mauser, Ph D

The 1995 Canadian Firearms Legislation - Ten Years Later Gary Mauser, Ph D. ANZSOC Conference Wellington, NZ February 2005. Gary Mauser Professor Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies Simon Fraser University Burnaby, BC Canada. February 2005. Canada has long had strict firearms law.

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The 1995 Canadian Firearms Legislation - Ten Years Later Gary Mauser, Ph D

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  1. The 1995 Canadian Firearms Legislation - Ten Years LaterGary Mauser, Ph D ANZSOC Conference Wellington, NZ February 2005

  2. Gary Mauser Professor Institute for Canadian Urban Research StudiesSimon Fraser UniversityBurnaby, BCCanada February 2005

  3. Canada has long had strict firearms law • 1880s - firearm permit required • 1920s - anti-Bolshevick law • 1934 - handguns registered • 1967 - modern framework for law • 1977 - FAC • 1991 - Kim Campbell • 1995 - Allan Rock ANZSOC 2005

  4. The 1991 Canadian Firearms Legislation(1991 through 1994) • Registration/ban of semi-automatic military-style rifles, and high-capacity magazines, • Increased FAC requirements: • - firearm safety course, • - 35-question application form, • - passport-type photograph • - two references (spouse required) • - mandatory 28-day waiting period ANZSOC 2005

  5. In 1994 Canada Consulted with New Zealand • The Canadians were advised that firearms registration • would be exceptionally difficult to achieve • - with an acceptable error rate • - at an acceptable cost • - The results probably not worth the effort ANZSOC 2005

  6. The 1995 Canadian Firearms Legislation(1995 through 2003) • Prohibition of over half of all registered handguns • Stricter regulations • Broadened police powers • July 1998 - Registration of firearms begun • January 2000 – Licensing of firearm owners begun • January 1, 2001 – All firearm owners required to be licensed • July 1, 2003 – All firearms required to be registered ANZSOC 2005

  7. Criteria for evaluation • Reasonable cost • Acceptable error rate • High level of compliance • Public support • Effective in improving public safety ANZSOC 2005

  8. Cost estimates of owner licencing and universal firearm registration • Original estimate in 1995 $C 2 million • AG partial estimate (DOJ) $C 1 billion • To date for all agencies $C 2 billion • Original estimate off by a factor of 1,000 ANZSOC 2005

  9. Organizational problems • Failure to understand project scope • Failure to plan for inter-agency cooperation • Information criteria differ across agencies • Some participants opposed to firearm ownership in principle • Failure to consult with owners, provinces, or Natives • Government cover-up of costs ANZSOC 2005

  10. Data quality of firearm registry • Over 5 million of the 7 million registered firearms are un-verified • Error rate between 50% and 90% • Errors in description of firearm or owner • Few criminal record checks of owners • No information on location of registered rifles or shotguns • No information on more than 170,000 people with firearm prohibition orders ANZSOC 2005

  11. Police do not trust the registry • RCMP told Auditor General they do not trust the information (2004) • Toronto Police Chief reports (2003) the system has not helped solve a single homicide • Police Association of Ontario said they fail to get information requested 95% of the time (2002) ANZSOC 2005

  12. Public support for the firearm registry • 77% of Canadian public agree that “the firearm registry should be scrapped.” • (JMCK Polling, N= 1,586, April 2004) • 8 out of 10 provinces declined to cooperate with federal government in registry (2003) • 6 out of 10 Provinces challenged the constitutionality of Firearms Act (2000) ANZSOC 2005

  13. Owner cooperation ANZSOC 2005

  14. Participation rates • Approximately 50% of firearm owners have complied • Less than 25% of residents of First Nations communities have complied • Approximately 50% of firearms stock is registered ANZSOC 2005

  15. Evaluation Do licencing and registration improve public safety?

  16. Which measures are the most appropriate? • Gun deaths • Gun crime • Gun violence • Total violent crime • Total homicide ANZSOC 2005

  17. How measure public safety? • Gun death? • Gun deaths are falling in Canada • Gun homicides falling • Gun suicides falling • Is it a success? ANZSOC 2005

  18. Trends in Canadian Gun Deaths ANZSOC 2005

  19. Canadian Suicide Trends ANZSOC 2005

  20. Gun Death is a Red Herring • Gun deaths are largely suicides • Suicide is not central to public safety • Strong substitution effect • The removal of firearms or sharps must balance liberty with personal safety ANZSOC 2005

  21. Trends in Canadian Suicide Rates ANZSOC 2005

  22. Trends in Suicide Rates in Australia ANZSOC 2005

  23. Social costs of the decline in gun ownership • Hunters are the driving force behind conservation • Hunters pay $70 million annually in licence fees • Hunters donate $33 million annually for habitat and conservation projects • Hunters spend almost half ($2.7 billion) on all expenditures on wildlife related activities • Increased number of wildlife-vehicle collisions ANZSOC 2005

  24. How measure public safety? • Gun crime? • 47% of gun crime is permit violations • Not a measure of violence, but regulatory enforcement ANZSOC 2005

  25. Gun Crime in Canada, 2003 ANZSOC 2005

  26. How measure public safety? • Gun violence? • Gun violence is small fraction of violent crime • Not even the worst violence ANZSOC 2005

  27. Gun violence and violent crime ANZSOC 2005

  28. Injuries caused by weapons during assault, Canada 2003 ANZSOC 2005

  29. How measure public safety? • Gun homicide? • Gun homicides are only a fraction of total homicides • Can reducing gun homicides reduce total homicide? • Substitution effect is quite powerful ANZSOC 2005

  30. Homicide trends in Canada ANZSOC 2005

  31. Homicide trends in Australia ANZSOC 2005

  32. How should we measure improvements in public safety? • Violent crime rates should drop • Not just criminal violence involving guns, but all criminal violence should fall • Homicide rates should fall • Not just gun homicide, but total homicide ANZSOC 2005

  33. More appropriate measures of public safety • Homicide rate • Robbery rate • Armed robbery rate • Violent crime rate ANZSOC 2005

  34. Homicide Trends in Canada and USA ANZSOC 2005

  35. Gang Related Homicides in Canada ANZSOC 2005

  36. Violent Crime Trends in Canada and USA ANZSOC 2005

  37. Trends in Armed Robbery in Australia ANZSOC 2005

  38. Violent Crime Trends in Australia and USA ANZSOC 2005

  39. Summary and Conclusion • The 1995 Firearms Act is not a success • Incomplete coverage • Unacceptably high error rate • No evidence for effectiveness • Firearms registry cost $2 billion -- other public safety measures under funded • The registry has reduced firearms access but has not improved public safety ANZSOC 2005

  40. Suggested alternatives • Improve monitoring of criminals on probation and parole • Increase prison time for violent criminals • Increase port security • Increase number of police officers • Tighten controls on deportation orders ANZSOC 2005

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