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WMO LC-LRFMME: Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasting | Enhancing Long-Range Predictions

Explore the functions, products, and activities of the WMO LC-LRFMME in Geneva, Switzerland. Discover the history, progress, and valuable contributions of this essential forecasting team.

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WMO LC-LRFMME: Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasting | Enhancing Long-Range Predictions

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  1. CBS EXPERT TEAM ON EXTENDED AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING 26~30 March 2012, Geneva, Switzerland WMO Lead Center for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME) : Status/progress report Suhee Park Korea Meteorological Administration

  2. Contents • History of WMO LC-LRFMME • Function of WMO LC-LRFMME • WMO Global Producing Centre (GPC) Data collection • Products and Activities of WMO LC-LRFMME • Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts • Summary

  3. 2005 2007 2006 2008 History & Acknowledgement WMO GPC meeting (October,Korea) - KMA suggested the need of LC-LRFMME. WMO CCL meeting (November,China) - KMA presented the need for establishing LC-LRFMME. The joint ET of DPFS agreed needs of Lead Center(s) for collection of globally available LRF to build MMEs (April, England). KMA, jointly with NCEP, completed submission of Lead Center application form to the WMO (September). WMO CBS-Ext.06 (November,Korea) - The commission encouraged GPCs to provide their data to LC-LRFMME. LC-LRFMME established the data exchange system (June). WMO/KMA GPC Workshop (September,Korea) - Refining needs for and functions of LC-LRFMME WMO Meeting of the ET on Extended and LRF (April,China). - Redefining the goal and functions of LC-LRFMME WMO CBS-XIV (April,Croatia) - LC-LRFMME was officially endorsed. 2009 www.themegallery.com

  4. Functions of LC-LRFMME Primary Functions • Maintains a repository of documentation for the system configuration of • all GPC LRF systems • Collects an agreed set of forecast data from GPCs • Generates an agreed set of Lead Centre (LC) products • Redistributes digital forecast data for those GPC’s that allow it • Handles requests for the password for the website and data distribution

  5. Datacollection resolution : 144x73, basic parameter : rain, mslp, t2m, z500, t850, sst, blue shading: tier-2, peach shading: coupled

  6. Collecting time of each GPCs data Collecting time of GPC data Period of research relevant to GSCU Period of producing forecast data & Homepage display 1 3 5 7 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 31

  7. LC-LRFMME Website http://www.wmolc.org No. of Members : 343 members from 78 countries Links to 12 GPCs

  8. Membership & Data upload/download/plot Membership Grades & Access • Grade A (GPCs) • :- Upload & Download • Digital data(limited) • - Download Image plots • Grade B (NMHSs, RCCs) • : - Download • Digital data(limited) & • Image plots • Grade C (Others) • : - Image plots • Access to data is available for registered members only.

  9. LC-LRFMME Products GPC digital data and graphical products in standard format available from LC-LRFMME Digital products Graphical products

  10. Products Ⅰ: 6 Parameters 500hPa GPH 850hPa Temperature Mean Sea Level Pressure Precipitation 2m Temperature Sea Surface Temperature

  11. Products Ⅱ: 12 GPCs Beijing CPTEC ECMWF Exeter Melbourne Montreal Moscow Pretoria Tokyo Washington Seoul Toulouse

  12. April May June AMJ Products Ⅲ: Period • Forecast Time • Monthly mean • 3-month mean

  13. Products Ⅳ: Map Types Rectangular Time Series Stereographic All Map Consistency Map SST Plume

  14. Products Ⅴ : Indices AO

  15. MME Plot of LC-LRFMME Simple MME

  16. Biased-Corrected Ensemble Mean Regular Multiple Regression Singular Value Decomposition MME Production : Deterministic MME

  17. MME Production : Probabilistic MME • Since June 2011, categorical probabilities for terciles based on the Probabilistic Multi Model Ensemble (PMME) prediction system have been synthesized.

  18. Activities ofLC-LRFMME Support for epidemic control Support for RCOFs In the winters of 2007 and 2008 climate prediction for the African region WMO, IRI, SADC Drought Monitoring Centre WMO LC-LRFMME In the spring of 2009 PRESAO, GHACOF, FOCRAII Training Improvement of Meteorological Disaster Responsiveness for African Countries (May 2009) Climate Variability and Predictions in South Asia, Eastern and Southeastern Africa (June 2009)

  19. Summary www.themegallery.com LC-LRFMME established by GPC-Seoul and GPC-Washington is fully functional and meets the requirements set by the “Expert Team on Extended and Long-Range Forecasts (ET-ELRF)” LC-LRFMME standardizes GPCs’ data for better usage ofWMO Members and has already entertained requests from RCOFs LC-LRFMME would be a valuable asset to the long-range forecast communities LC-LRFMME makes an important contribution to increasing the resources available for disaster prevention and mitigation, and for better social-economic planning

  20. Thank you!

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