European Union trade politics and a social clause

1. European Union trade politics and a social clause A protectionist wolf in social clothing? WORK IN PROGRESS !!! Utrecht School of Economics - Tjalling C. Koopmans Institute External Seminar Series - 31 January 2007 European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

2. IntroductionThree confessionsEuropean Union trade politics- development (Everything But Arms)- social clause (Core Labour Standards) European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

3. State of the artLiterature: economic (theoretical) + focus on US policy Empirical testing of protectionist assumption? Policy of European Union and member states? European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

4. EU position on a social clause?Process-tracing of evolving EU policy and discourse - Multilateral (GATT/WTO) - Bilateral agreements (Lomé etc) - Unilateral (GSP) European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

5. (cf Orbie, Vos & Taverniers 2005) European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

6. Explanations- for evolving EU/EC position?- for variation in positions of MS and institutions? Competences?  Ideology?Economic interests! European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

7. HypothesisSocial clause = disguised protectionism how to measure? Unemployment / trade union power how relate to other explanations? European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

8. Arithm. average EU-15 OECD 1966-2005  Striking link between European unemployment figures and the EU debate on a social clause (1) NON-ISSUE (2) SUDDEN RISE (3) DISAPPEARS (4) HOT TOPIC (5) COMPROMISE (6) NON-ISSUE European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

9. Arithm. average EU-15 Eurostat 1983-2005 European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

10. Individual member states: same pattern European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

11. Weighted average (voting weight in Council): same pattern European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

12. Striking link between European unemployment figures and the EU debate on a social clause…(1) non-issue 1970s(2) sudden rise end 1970s(3) disappearance 1980s(4) hot topic 1993-94(5) compromise end 1990s(6) non-issue 2000+ European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

13. BUT high/rising unemployment- does not necessarily lead to a common EU/EC position on integrating CLS in trade policies- does not explain variations within the EU Member States and Institutions European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

14. Variations within the EU Member States and Institutions(a) 1993-97: divergences between MS(Fr/B vs Ge/UK)  ideological dimension(b) 1970s: divergences between EC institutions (EC/EP/ESC vs Council)  competence dimension European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

15. Divergences between MS from 1993 until 1997/98- France and Belgium: in favour- Germany and UK: opposition European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

16. Unemployment (OECD) 1990-2000: Evolution Fr/B/Ge/UK and EU average European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

17. Unemployment (OECD) 1990-2000:Factor analysis (PCA) Fr/B/Ge/UK European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

18. Alternative explanation: trade union power? Trade union power = trade union density?- How to measure? - Gross density: political interpretation - Net density: international comparison - But: High correlations between gross and net- Focus on Fr/B/Ge/UK European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

19. Net union density Fr/B/Ge/UK 1990-2003 (Visser 2006) European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

20. - Trade union density level is much lower in Fr than in UK and Ge- No direct link between union density and a government’s position on a social clause- Indirect influence through the participation of affiliated parties in government? >Ideological dimension European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

21. Ideological dimension must be considered to account for divergences between member states – apart from unemployment figures and union density- cf. ‘Northern free traders’ vs ‘Southern Club Med’ in EU trade policy - cf Krueger 1996 on US: ideology – however difficult to define – seems to play a more important role European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

22. (b) Divergences between EU institutions in late 1970s (and until today)- EC/EP/ESC: in favour- Council: reluctant European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

23. The issue of labour standards in trade (i.e. social clause) touches upon sensitive competence issues between Community institutions and Member States- EC role in coordination/ratification/implementation labour standards (ILO affairs)? - EC role in broader (redistributive) trade-related isssues (development)? European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

24. Preliminary conclusions: institutions, interests and ideas- Unemployment / economic interests: necessary condition for triggering EU debate...- ... but not sufficient: (a) ideological preferences (between MS) and (b) competence issues (EC vs MS) also play a role  how? European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

25. - because of institutional architecture EU trade policy, viz. unanimity/consensus requirement esp. in trade-related and redistributive issues: ‘trigger’ of unemployment rise only leads to firm/common position on a social clause when there is a clear ideological consensus in the EU if not: EU sticks to ‘default position’, biased towards free trade approaches (and ILO instead of WTO involvement), cf ‘joint decision trap’ (cf EU in Marrakesh 1993; Singapore 1996) European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

26. Ideological consensus at EU level • ‘Center of gravity’: cf. average ideological position of Council • ‘Standard deviation’: cf. extent of ideological consensus in EU (from: Manow, Schäfer, Zorn 2004) European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

27. Thus: ‘protectionist wolf’ is largely caged in EU institutional structure (lock-in) In line with historical-institutionalist research (cf. Hanson 1998) concluding that ‘Fortress Europe’ did not materialize; the EU is a fairly liberal actor in trade Despite agriculture and ‘regulatory peaks’ (Young 2004 on EU ‘incidental Fortress’) European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

28. - Suggests that debate on a social clause will resurface with sudden increases in unemployment- Sheds light on difference with United States, where position on a social clause is more closely related to prevailing ideology in Congress/Administration(less institutional hurdles) European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

29. Unemployment in US European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

30. Questions and further research- quantifying intensity of EU position on social clause- quantifying interplay unemployment, union density, and ideology- comparisons with US trade policy and other EU trade-related topics (e.g. environment)- relevance for EU social policy in general- ... European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University

31. Contact detailsJan.Orbie@UGent.be (EU studies)Tineke.Boucke@UGent.be (trade unions)Dries.Verlet@UGent.be (methodology)Ghent University (UGent)Department of Political ScienceUniversiteitstraat 8B – 9000 Gent Belgiumwww.psw.ugent.be European Union trade politics and a social clause: a protectionist wolf in social clothing? J. Orbie, T. Boucké, D. Verlet – Dept. of Political Science, Ghent University