Challenges of Linking Forecasts to the Field: A Practitioner’s Experience Building Regional Climate Outlook Forums in Af

1. Research Seminar on Knowledge for Development Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University 9 October 2003 Challenges of Linking Forecasts to the Field: A Practitioner’s Experience Building Regional Climate Outlook Forums in Africa Macol Stewart Cerda President, Silmaril, LLC Former Director of Climate Forecasting and Applications for Africa, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Global Programs

2. Presentation Overview • What is a Regional Climate Outlook Forum? • Genesis and evolution of Regional Climate Outlook Forums • Analysis of how Outlook Forums addressed common knowledge systems challenges • Other major challenges for Outlook Forums

3. So what is a Regional Climate Outlook Forum? • Main regional mechanism for the formulation and dissemination of seasonal climate forecasts • Bring together climate scientists, operational forecasters, and climate information users to • Formulate a consensus forecast • Discuss the implications of probable climate outcomes for climate-sensitive sectors

4. Climate Outlook Forums worldwide 1997-2000

5. Outlook Forum regions roughly correspond to regions needing early warning capabilities

6. Birth of the Climate Outlook Forum Concept Workshop on Reducing Climate-Related Vulnerability in Southern Africa, October 1996, Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe Priority areas for developing forecasting and applications: • a series of pilot demonstration projects designed to establish a framework for responding to climate forecast information in the areas of agriculture, food security, water resources, public health, and forestry; • a Regional Climate Outlook Forum charged with arriving at an assessment (ideally a consensus) of the state of the climate for the upcoming season; • improvements in communications and connectivity, particularly with regards to e-mail and the internet; and • training programs, educational opportunities, and fellowship possibilities that cross political and sectoral boundaries.

7. First Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) • Pre-season Outlook Forum, September 1997, Kadoma, Zimbabwe • Mid-season Correction Meeting, December 1997, Windhoek, Namibia • Post-season Assessment Meeting, April 1998, Pilanesburg, South Africa • Each proceeded by a training workshop for forecast production and validation

8. Controversies and deal breakers • Scientific conflict • Political conflict • Disagreement over who should participate • Disagreement over when and how to disseminate consensus outlook

9. Keys to success for first SARCOF • Maintaining scientific integrity • Artfully balancing political concerns • While meeting user demands for • standardized, timely, verifiable forecast information • a regular venue for a user/producer dialog • mutual commitment to a process for improving forecast production and use

10. Useful knowledge for decision support • Knowledge that is used is perceived by decision makers to be simultaneously salient, credible, legitimate… not just one of these • Saliency (Is it relevant to decision making, to changing needs of specific users, producers?) • Credibility (Is it technically believable, endorsed by relevant evaluative communities?) • Legitimacy (Is it perceived to be politically fair, respectful, evenhanded by stakeholders?) -- Bill Clark

11. Spread to other regions • Initial intention to focus only on Southern Africa for 3-5 years • 1997/98: El Nino as a household word • Needs of users and Meteorological Services drive the formation of climate outlook forums in other regions • Rapid expansion around the world

12. How have the Climate Outlook Forums addressed the common challenges faced by knowledge systems? • Empowering end-users in setting priorities for research and development • Creating location specific knowledge needed for decision support • Integrating basic and applied approaches to produce user-inspired basic research • Incorporating both tacit knowledge of practice and global knowledge / technology into local solutions • Integrating public and private needs and capabilities • Fostering boundary spanning organizations to connect knowledge and action

13. Empowering end-users in setting R&D priorities • Applications research and decision support development • Climate forecasting research and development • Basic climate research and development

14. Location specific knowledge for decision support • Downscaling forecasts • Combining forecast information with location specific climate monitoring information • Combining forecast information with location specific information from climate-sensitive sectors • Combining forecast information with local knowledge

15. tacit knowledge, global knowledge, and technology • Reconciling climate forecasts and local climate knowledge/indicators • Linking forecasts with the on the ground knowledge of how to respond to the forecast

16. Public and private needs and capabilities • Easing the tension between the public provision and use of knowledge and its private provision and use • Information is more easily accessible, and often more usable, for wealthy and powerful interests • Resolving disputes over proprietary information, who owns it, who pays for it, and who can use it

17. Boundary spanning organizations • Tendency to rely more on individual intermediaries and communities of intermediaries • Less success in moving established user organizations into boundary roles • Forecasting organizations interested in boundary organization role

18. Other challenges • Sustainability • Knowledge dissemination physical infrastructure

19. Sustainability • Internal momentum to perpetuate the system • Stability of the Forum mechanism • Funding for the system

20. Physical infrastructure for knowledge dissemination • By what mechanisms or pathways is information delivered to end-users? • National TV, press, and radio • Word of mouth, or person-to-person via intermediaries • By what mechanisms or pathways is feed-back solicited from end-users and delivered to forecasters? • Word of mouth, intermediaries, studies/projects, e-mail and mail reporting • Over reliance on informal mechanisms

21. In conclusion • Development of COF knowledge system faced common challenges • Politics: biggest challenge to inception • Knowledge is power • Sustainability: biggest challenge to future • How to maintain system when there is no immediate crisis? • The future?

22. Thank you!