by Cindy Newberg US EPA March 1, 2001

1. Global Warming: Challenges and Solutions2001: An Airspace Odyssey, University of California, Berkeley by Cindy Newberg US EPA March 1, 2001

2. Aviation CO2 emissions are a significant source of GHGs 1996 CO2 emissions, by sector (MMTCE) * Utilities emit approximately 500 MMTCE CO2 Sources: USEPA 1990-1996 Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks. Table ES-2 (for cars and utilities); White House Climate Change Task Force Industry Background Papers (for all other sectors).

3. Growth in jet fuel use will far outpace many sectors Source: 1998 Annual Energy Outlook, Energy Information Administration, Table 2. Energy consumption by sector and source.

4. Multiple aviation exhaust components affect the atmosphere Radiative forcing - CO2 - ozone, CH4 - contrails/clouds - CO2 - H2O - SOx - NOx - CO, soot Local air quality - ozone - PM - NOx

5. Our Climate at Risk • Two major international science assessments underscore role of aviation in climate change: • IPCC Special Report on Aviation and the Global Atmosphere (1999) • Third Assessment Report (2001)

6. Unique Role of Aviation • IPCC estimated that CO2 from aviation was 2% of total in 1992 • Impact from other emissions (NOx, water vapor, etc.) brings total to 3.5% • High growth rates suggest aviation could contribute 5% of total radiative forcing by 2050

7. Global climate impacts from subsonic aircraft extend beyond CO2 effects Estimated globally and annually averaged radiative forcing from aircraft in 1992. Radiative forcing (W/m2) Source: Figure 2, IPCC Special Report on Aviation, Summary for Policymakers. Bars indicate best estimate of forcing; whisker is 2/3 uncertainty range based on best available information. “Total” uncertainty calculated as square root of sums of squares of upper and lower ranges for individual components. Current information on cirrus allows only range of best estimates. Level of scientific understanding for each individual component in above figure is judged to be good (CO2), fair (O3, contrails, direct sulfate, direct soot), poor (CH4, H2O), very poor (cirrus). See IPCC 1999 report for further explanation.

8. The Latest Findings…The Past • The global-average surface temperature has increased by 0.6 degrees C since 1900 • The 1990s were very likely the warmest decade in the instrumental record (1861) • In the N. Hemisphere, the 1900s is likely to have been the warmest century over the last 1000 years • Sea level has risen, ice cover has decreased

9. The latest Findings … the future • There is new and stronger evidence that most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. • The globally average temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 - 5.8 degrees C. From 1990 to 2100 -- greater than the projected increase of 1.0 - 3.5 degrees C. in the second assessment.

10. ICAO/CAEP’s Role • Art. 2.2 of the Kyoto Protocol calls for action to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions from aviation bunker fuels • CAEP moving forward on operational measures, technology and market-based options

11. ICAO/CAEP: several approaches to limiting/reducing emissions • Working Groups develop recommendations: • Technology and standards (WG3) • Operational measures and best practices (WG4) • Market-based options (WG5) • initially focussed on CO2 • Forecast and Economic Support Group (FESG)

12. Market-based approaches offer a number of attractive features: • Flexibility for lowest-cost emissions reductions • Incentives to innovate beyond technology standards • Market forces set price for pollution and means to internalize costs • Eliminate government selection of technological “winners and losers”

13. CAEP WG5 analyzed a variety of market-based options for the aviation sector • WG5 considered: • levies (including taxes and charges) • voluntary mechanisms (industry initiatives and negotiated agreements) • emissions trading (closed and open regimes) • Of the three analyzed MBOs, open emissions trading offers the best opportunity for aviation to reduce emissions • Voluntary mechanisms offers capacity building opportunities

14. Key Findings of CAEP/5 regarding pursuit of MBOs: • Open emissions trading is a cost-effective solution for CO2 emission reductions but cannot be implemented unless the Kyoto Protocol enters into force. • In the shorter term, guidelines for implementing voluntary mechanisms should be developed. With respect to levies further studies should be carried out and further guidance developed

15. WG5: Future Work • Voluntary Mechanisms: • template agreement establishing goals & guidance for quantifying, monitoring & verifying • optional ‘learning by doing” trading program • Levies: • guidance on identification & calculation of emissions related costs • Emissions Trading: • Develop key elements for an open emissions trading program including reporting, monitoring, compliance and enforcement - to be compatible with the Kyoto mechanisms

16. Future work for WG5 -- Additional areas of work: • Consider targets for emissions from international aviation and mechanisms for distributing permits • Study the effects of options on non-Annex I States • Explore use of incentives e.g., credit for early action • Consider linkages to other measures • Assess effects of international & domestic aviation emissions being treated in different ways • Analyze implications if different States take different approaches

17. Next Steps -- for the Working Groups and beyond • ICAO Council • Council to meet and review findings of CAEP and make recommendations to Assembly, including review of a draft Assembly Resolution • April 2001 • Assembly • The Assembly will meet in September 2001 • Working Groups will meet and have short term and longer term deliverables for the CAEP Steering Group and Next CAEP (2004?)

18. Contrails are line-shaped ice crystal clouds produced by aircraft engine exhaust water vapor

19. EPA, NASA, FAA, and NOAA have released a joint fact sheet on the effects of contrails