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The State and Future of U.S. Solar Shayle Kann Senior Vice President, Research Greentech Media

The State and Future of U.S. Solar Shayle Kann Senior Vice President, Research Greentech Media Intersolar North America July 2014. The Market Is Growing (But Not Everywhere). Absent Seasonality, Growth Remains Strong. Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight.

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The State and Future of U.S. Solar Shayle Kann Senior Vice President, Research Greentech Media

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  1. The State and Future of U.S. Solar Shayle Kann Senior Vice President, Research Greentech Media Intersolar North America July 2014

  2. The Market Is Growing (But Not Everywhere)

  3. Absent Seasonality, Growth Remains Strong Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

  4. The Market Hasn’t Really Diversified All That Much Q1 2014 Installations Residential Non-Residential Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

  5. Each Segment Is Unique Residential Exceeds Commercial for the First Time Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight

  6. Residential: The Rise of the Loan?

  7. Residential Third Party Ownership Still Dominates Source: GTM Research U.S. Residential Solar Financing 2014

  8. The Residential PV Finance Landscape in 2013 2013 Lease/PPA Both Loan Vertically Integrated Semi-IntegratedFinance Provider Semi-IntegratedInstaller Partner Model Source: GTM Research: U.S. Residential PV Financing 2014

  9. The Residential PV Finance Landscape in 2014 2014 Lease/PPA Both Loan Vertically Integrated Semi-IntegratedFinance Provider Semi-IntegratedInstaller * Partner Model * * * * New residential solar financiers Source: GTM Research: U.S. Residential PV Financing 2014

  10. TPO Market Share is Stagnant or Even Falling Virtually No Market Share Gain Source: GTM Research U.S. Residential Solar Financing 2014

  11. Non-Residential: Cracking the Code on Small Commercial

  12. We Barely Install Any Small Commercial Solar Source: GTM Research

  13. Utility: Making a Comeback

  14. WA ME MT ND VT OR MN NH MA ID SD WI NY CT RI WY MI PA IA NJ NE NV OH DE IN IL UT MD CA WV CO VA KS MO KY NC TN OK AZ SC AR NM GA MS AL LA TX FL Utility Procurement Outside the RPS: 3 GW in 12 Months <20 MW Bilateral Contract 26 MW PURPA Rules 520 MW Bilateral Contract 130 MW Utility RFP 279 MW Utility-Owned Generation 437 MW PURPA Rules 725 MW Utility RFP 195 MW Utility RFP 221 MW Utility RFP 165 MW Merchant Solar Source: GTM Research

  15. DG And Utilities: Predicting the Endgame

  16. Distributed Solar Installations in Context 2013: 1.9 GW Expected Production: 2.7 million MWh =0.04% of National Electricity Demand Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight 2013

  17. But What About Top States? Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight 2013

  18. How About Demand Growth? Next 30 Years: 1% Annual Demand Growth Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2013

  19. Distributed Solar Is Already Having An Impact On Growth Source: GTM Research

  20. >20 NEM Battles, No Major Losses Legislative Regulatory Both VT WA MA MN NY OR ID RI IA VA UT CO KS CA NC AZ NV GA LA FL HI Source: Vote Solar, GTM Research

  21. Massachusetts as the Model for the Future? Anatomy of a compromise (H.4185): Net metering cap removed Virtual net metering compensation decreased (no more distribution credit) SREC program replaced by declining-block, fixed price production incentive (like CSI commercial) Introduction of a minimum bill Making 1,600 MW target legally binding Source: GTM Research

  22. How Much Do Import Tariffs Matter?

  23. Chinese Module Suppliers Dominate the DG Landscape Source: GTM Research U.S.-China Solar Tariff Brief, June 2014

  24. New Trade Case: Big Preliminary CVD Margins Source: GTM Research U.S.-China Solar Tariff Brief, June 2014

  25. Chinese Tariff Strategies – No Easy Out This Time Source: GTM Research U.S.-China Solar Tariff Brief, June 2014

  26. Grading Our Predictions In 2014…. At least one more utility affiliate will purchase a C&I project developer No net metering repeal effort will be successful, but at least two states will introduce fixed charges or minimum bills Every major residential TPO company will have a debt offering >400 MW of utility PPAs will be signed, all outside RPS requirements

  27. $131 Billion in Project Capital Needed Through 2018 Source: GTM Research

  28. Thank You! Shayle Kann Senior Vice President, Research Greentech Media Questions? Visit www.gtmresearch.com Or contact kann@gtmresearch.com

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