Presentation by Jan de Leeuw “3 rd CRAM Meeting” RCRMD Nairobi, Kenya

1. Remote sensing applications in support of drought early warning and NRM in rangelands Presentation by Jan de Leeuw “3rd CRAM Meeting” RCRMD Nairobi, Kenya

2. ILRI and RS in rangelands • ILRI - livestock and rangeland research • Focus on livelihoods livestock keepers • Poverty and vulnerability reduction • Enhancing food security • Environmental sustainability • Research aiming at impact • Involving users of information early stage

3. ILRI and RS in rangelands • Drought management • Review effectiveness drought management • Livestock population dynamics • Livestock insurances • Natural resource management • Payment and accounting ecosystem services • Watershed management

4. Risk in the ASALs Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) residents live in harsh and volatile environments High level of risk: Drought, Disease, Conflict Low coping capacity: Infrastructure deficient Few alternative opportunities ASALs 70% national livestock herd, valued 0.7 Billion US $

5. Impact Drought on Livelihoods Proportion of total income by source Livestock is both the principal asset and source of income for the vast majority of ASAL residents

6. Impact of Drought on Livelihoods Livestock mortality by cause • Drought single greatest cause of livestock mortality

7. Review of livestock interventions • Severe drought in 2008 – 2009 • Kenya has drought management system and policy • Relief focuses on people and on livestock • EU commissioned review of responses to drought targeted at livestock

8. Kenya and drought • Kenya facing recurrent drought • National drought management system (DMS) • Drought management policies • Early warning system • Monthly early warning bulletins • Contingency plan and fund • Coordination and response structure

9. Decision making drought management interventions DCF DSS what to do EWB Relief Information Pastoral lands and livelihoods

10. Approach study • Review available early warning data • Survey of stakeholders in six districts • Interviews of Gov, NGO’s and communities • What interventions and when • Timeliness, appropriateness and effectiveness and involvement of stakeholders • Review triggers for release of contingency funds

11. NDVI Long term monthly data 1982 – 2009 Moving average 12 months NDVI Findings – Severe drought in South Kenya Above normal conditions North Characterization drought

12. Early warning (EWB) alarm stage Districts without RS drought evidence given highest alarm Social indicators higher weight than state of rangeland Timing of interventions

13. Insight causes and impacts of drought Rainfall in E Africa related to ENSO Since Aug 201o severe La Nina phase La Nina associated with poor short rains

14. Repetitive drought Droughts differ in depth and duration Droughts not regular recurrence

15. Livestock and repetitive drought Aerial survey data Kadjiado Livestock biomass relates to 5 year average NDVI NDVI now at historic low Collapse livestock populations

16. Effectiveness of drought management strategies Drought management strategies assume drought to be regular and short RS record learns that droughts differ in depth, duration and repeat time Strategies effective during short lived and moderate drought may be ineffective during deep, prolonged and repetitive drought

17. Index Based Livestock Insurances (IBLI) • Livestock mortality imposes costs on pastoralists • Insurance can mitigate this risk • Conventional insurance not viable in remote areas - high transactions costs • IBLI makes payment to policy holders based on external “index” that triggers payouts

18. The INBI Index Need for a measure that is: • Highly correlated with livestock mortality • Reliably and cheaply available • Historically available • NDVI + livestock mortality data • Response function to calculate risk and premium

19. Performance of Predicted Livestock Mortality Index

20. Temporal structure of IBLI contract and cumulative standardized NDVI IBLI Product Design

21. Contract Sales Jan/Feb 2010 • Uptake by 6% and 2% of households • Small herd size (TLU) insured • Small size as business, need to grow • Lack of understanding of the product in Jan-Feb 2010

22. Development of insurance • ILRI with insurer and reinsurer • Commercial sustainability – reinsurance • Social impacts – resilience livelihoods? • Environmental impacts? • RS data continuity

23. Natural resource management • Livelihood approach to rangelands • What benefits do people derive from rangelands? • Importance rangelands to pastoralists and economy? • Several activities to account for • benefits that people derive from rangelands • the ecosystem services that support these benefits • Providing spatial information to support government and local communities

24. Mapping ecosystem services Ewaso Ng’iro catchment • Mapping ecosystem services of the Ewaso Ng’iro catchment • Purpose to support Ministry of North Kenya and Arid Lands • Compiling atlas based on existing spatial information

25. Social indicators - poverty rates

26. Natural Resources - livestock

27. Competing claims and wildlife

28. Valuing services • Valuation of ecosystem services • Based on mapping of services and economic information

29. Data availability and gaps • Surprising how much data was available • Specific gaps where RS could assist • Rangeland biomass production • Rangeland degradation • Rainfall estimates • Partitioning of water resources • Livestock surveys

30. Support discussion on water use in Ewaso catchment • Many highland rivers discharge in drylands • Discharge important to downstream users • Secure surface water and forage • Recharge of aquifers and wetlands • Retention of agricultural water upstream deprives downstream communities from rivers’ benefits • Synthesis of upstream downstream connectivity to support discussion among water use associations

31. The Ewaso Ng’iro catchment Upstream agriculture Lorian Swamp Merti Archer’s Post Mt. Kenya To Nairobi

32. Abstractions and discharge at Archer’s

33. Monthly NDVI 1998 - 2010

34. Impact on vegetation biomass NDVI • Significant relation water inflow and difference NDVI swamp and surroundings • Outliers reflect local rains Lorian Swamp

35. Ewaso Ng’iro discharge and ecosystem services Lorian swamp

36. Vulnerability to abstractions of the benefits from river water • Blue surface water – highly vulnerable • Green water – highly vulnerable • Groundwater recharge – low vulnerability • Insight will be used in discussion between up and downstream water use associations

37. RS and policy • Policy development messy process • No regular pattern • Policy cycle scheme phases in policy development • Useful to help thinking function of remote sensing

38. Policy cycle - Example Drought Management Problem – Social impacts of drought Formulate drought management policy Implement – policy instruments Control Evaluate

39. Agenda RS applications address problems in pastoral lands • Institutional context of RS information provisioning • Evaluate impact of RS data supply • Develop new products • Methods livestock surveys • Insight livestock production and droughts • Rangeland biomass production and degradation • Rainfall and partitioning of water resources

40. International Livestock Research Institute Better lives through livestock Animal agriculture to reduce poverty, hunger and environmental degradation in developing countries ILRI  www.ilri.org