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Best Predictors GFS: 1,2,4,5 NGP: 1,2,3,5,8,9 UKM: 1,2,3,6,7,8,9 HSS / Jacknife HSS

Objectively Determined Model-Derived Parameters associated with Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation.

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Best Predictors GFS: 1,2,4,5 NGP: 1,2,3,5,8,9 UKM: 1,2,3,6,7,8,9 HSS / Jacknife HSS

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  1. Objectively Determined Model-Derived Parameters associated with Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Formation Performed a linear discriminant analysis on data from the tropical vortex database (VORTRACK) in order to derive the function, for each model at each tau, that best discriminates between developers and false alarms. Author: LCDR Christy Cowan (JUN 06)Advisor: P. HarrSponsor: ONR, NHC JHT Summarized Results(12-hour) • Best Predictors • GFS: 1,2,4,5 • NGP: 1,2,3,5,8,9 • UKM: 1,2,3,6,7,8,9 • HSS / Jacknife HSS • GFS: .5924 / .2917 • NGP: .6063 / .2475 • UKM: .7856 / .5470 • Area Under Curve • GFS: .5382 • NGP: .5500 • UKM: .7289 1- Average Vorticity, 2- 700-500 Warm Core, 3- 850-500 Shear, 4- 850-200 Shear, 5- 850-200 Thickness, 6- Omega, 7- Vapor Pressure, 8-SLP Difference, 9- SLP Minimum

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