ESCB statistics and its main challenges ahead

1. ECB-RESTRICTED FINAL Aurel SchubertDirector-General Statistics, ECB ESCB statistics and its main challenges ahead Joint ECB NBRM Seminar on StatisticsSkopje, 4 October 2013

2. ECB-RESTRICTED FINAL Outline 1 Increased policy relevance of statistics 2 Production of ESCB Statistics 3 Main challenges ahead + Challenges in European statistics production + Single Supervisory Mechanism data needs + Improving communication of statistics * The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the ECB.

3. Increasedpolicyrelevanceofstatistics • ESCB statistics are vital for: • ECB’s monetary policy • Other (growing) policy functions (financial stability, systemic risk and macro-prudential surveillance, payment systems oversight, …) • Statistical support to the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) • Statistical support to the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM)

4. Increasedpolicyrelevanceofstatistics • ESCB statistics are also key to EU policy-makers’ decisions • The EU reforms following the crisis • Use indicators as alert mechanisms (early warning tools) and to enforce policy compliance Financial supervisory policies Fiscal policies Macro- economic policies • ESCB contributes to G-20 initiatives to close global data gaps • ESCB statistics are also a public good

5. 1 Increased policy relevance of statistics 2 Production of ESCB Statistics 3 Main challenges ahead

6. Evidence-based decision making is supported by • The ESCB’s own produced European statistics • The European statistics produced by Eurostat and the national statistical offices (e.g. GDP, HICP, labour market and short-term business statistics) • … and also data from commercial data providers

7. Main features of ESCB statistics • Main focus on euro area statistics, but also on national contributions, which need to be harmonised and comparable • to compile homogenous euro area aggregates which in many cases are not the simple sum of national statistics • to ensure cross-country comparability and to assess economic convergence • Conforming to international standards wherever possible • European and international cooperation is essential (in particular with Eurostat, BIS, IMF, OECD, UN) • active and influential ECB role on on-going developments (to limit subsequent efforts) 7

8. Main features of ESCB statistics • ECB statistical competences laid down in ECB Statute annexed to the EU Treaty • ECB legal acts (Regulations and Guidelines) address a wide range of statistics • ECB and the NCBs work as a team through the ESCB Statistics Committee (STC) • Develops new statistics and statistical methods and prepares legal acts for adoption by the ECB Governing Council • Essential role of National Central Banks, which collect (national) data on the basis of ECB legal acts and submit harmonised datasets to the ECB • ECB checks data quality, aggregates and consolidates for the euro area • Encompassing quality architecture • Public Commitment for European Statistics • ECB Statistics Quality Framework • Quality reporting 8

9. Legal framework for European statistics Treaty of the EU Article 5 ESCB/ECB Statute Article 338 TFEU European Statistical System Regulation 223/09 ECB collecting statistics Regulation 2533/98 Eurosystem ECB Guidelines NCBs EP and Council Regulations addressed to Member States ECB Regulations addressed to reporting agents Investment Funds Short-term Statistics HICP BOP … Insurance Corp. & Pension Funds … MUFA ESA 95 transmission programme Financial Vehicle Corporations MFI GFS Balance sheet Interest rates Securities Holdings

10. Statistical cooperation in the EU European System of Central Banks (ESCB)/Eurosystemm European Statistical System (ESS) Committee on Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments Statistics + new: European Statistical Forum EU National Central Banks EU National Statistical Institutes Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) ECB Eurosystem • Responsibility • Monetary and financial statistics • Quarterly financial accounts • International reserves • Financial stability statistics • Responsibility • General economic statistics • All non-economic statistics • Shared responsibility • B.o.p. and i.i.p. statistics • European accounts by sector • Statistical infrastructure

11. Statistical cooperation in the ESCB WG on Euro Area Accounts WG on Statistical Information Management WG on External Statistics ESCB Statistics Committee (STC) WG on Securities Statistics WG on General Economic Statistics WG on Monetary and Financial Statistics WG on Government Finance Statistics Ad-hoc Task Forces

12. 1 Increased policy relevance of statistics 2 Production of ESCB Statistics 3 Main challenges ahead

13. Challenges in European statistics production Facing constraints Increasing demands • More detailed data • Country data • Micro-databases • Distributional data • Reporting burden • Confidentiality • Compiler’s resources

14. The ECB response • New statistics on • Investment funds (2009) • Financial Vehicle Corporations engaged in securitisation (2011) • Insurance Corporations and Pension Funds (2011) • Consolidated banking data • Development micro-datasets • Centralised Securities Database • Securities Holding Statistics • Credit and Credit risk dataset • Register of Financial Institutions • Household and corporate surveys • Better macro-ec. statistics • Further development euro area accounts • Implementation new manuals (SNA2010-ESA2010, BPM6) • Other datasets • BIS banking statistics • Financial markets statistics • Ad-hoc surveys

15. New statistics- better information on all financial sectors Investment Funds • New statistics on assets and liabilities euro area Investment Funds Enhanced Monetary and Financial Statistics Financial Vehicle Corporations • Regular compilation statistics euro area Financial Vehicle Corporations engaged in securitisation transactions and MFI securitisation Insurance Corporations & Pension Funds • New statistics euro area Insurance Corporations & Pension Funds

16. New statistics - better information on all financial sectors Timeliness • Further advancing timeliness Enhanced Monetary and Financial Statistics Breakdowns • Providing more breakdowns of banks’ balance sheet, e.g. loans by NACE, and interest rates Credit lines • New data on credit lines granted by banks Compilation • Compilation harmonised financial statistics on a consolidated basis Alignment • Working with supervisors in a better alignment of supervisory and statistical concepts and data

17. New statistics - Better information on financial markets Other monetary / financial statistics in demand • Financial markets statistics • Probability density functions • Exposures to sovereign debt/Govt Finance Statistics • Short Term European Paper market statistics • Foreign currency borrowings by non-financial corporations, households, or credit institutions

18. Developments of micro-datasets • Statistics and Micro-databases 1 Register of Financial institutions and groups composition 2 Consolidated Banking Data/National Banking Indicators 3 Granular Credit and Credit Risk Dataset 4 Sectorial/individual Issuance and Holdings of Securities 6 5 SME Corporate finance Households finance and consumption survey

19. Other datasets Other datasets Ad-hoc surveys • BIS banking statistics (consolidated and locational by nationality) • Banks’ disclosures • Commercial data from Bloomberg, Moody’s, etc. • Occur for specific issues • Tailored to latest developments in financial sector • Especially while EU Supervisory frameworks are still in the making

20. Enhancements to macroeconomic statistics • Enhancing integrated quarterly financial and non-financial accounts euro area: • Advance timeliness • Improve consistency • Enhance completeness, coverage and length • Consolidated lending exposures credit institutions vis-à-vis counterparts • Implementation of new international statistical standards (SNA2008-ESA2010, BPM6)

21. 1 Increased policy relevance of statistics 2 Production of ESCB Statistics 3 Main challenges ahead * Single Supervisory Mechanism data needs

22. Single Supervisory Mechanism data needs Elements of the Single Supervisory Mechanism • ECB is the competent supervisory authority for all banks in the euro area in close cooperation with SSM members • Non-euro area countries can – voluntarily – join the SSM • ECB to conduct direct supervision of ca. 130-140 banking groups (“significant banks”), representing around 80% of the banking sectors’ total assets in the euro area • The other, “less significant” banks will be directly supervised locally • Balance sheet review before the ECB takes over the SSM (conducted together with national supervisory authorities)  • Need for a financialbackstop(national budgets and where needed the ESM) • Accurate, timely and high quality data will be key for the performance of these tasks

23. Single Supervisory Mechanism data needs 1 EBA’s ITS and Pillar 2 data 2 MFI Statistics 3 Central Credit Registers SSM Data requirements 4 Ad-hoc datacollections 5 Other national data 6 Financial marketsdata

24. Single Supervisory Mechanism data needs SSM data framework: preparatory work Work in progress Next planned steps ahead • Pilot supervisory data • Supervisory Banking (SUBA) Data System • Preparing an ECB decision for the transmission of central credit registers (CCR) data in the short run • Preparation of the project long-run solution for AnaCredit dataset • Register of institutions (RIAD) • Further work on the SUBA project • Security Holdings Statistics (SHS) • Assessment of individual MFI data (balance sheet and interest rates) for supervisory use • Proof of ability of RIAD to meet mapping requirements • Financial Market Statistics

25. 1 Increased policy relevance of statistics 2 Production of ESCB Statistics 3 Main challenges ahead * Improving communication of statistics

26. Improving communication of statistics Fostering cooperation and information-sharing, transparency in methodology Communicating statistics to professional users, policy makers and the general public Communication of central bank statistics is an important aspect of accountability and credibility (“evidence based policy making”) and for building trust Reporting agents as well as the public at large need to understand, use, re-use the results of data collections Statistics (financial sector) is a core product of central banking

27. Evidence based policy making ESRB Risk Dashboard First publication 20 September 2012 Objectives Risk assessment Input to further systemic risk analysis Communication tool • Content: • 45 indicators and 6 risk typologies • Allows synthetic view of the situation for deeper analysis • Cannot replace expert judgement, but complements it • See: www.esrb.europa.eu Market risk Interlinkages Macro risk Credit risk Liquidity and funding Profitability & Solvency

28. Evidence based policy making Statistics for EU macro-economic surveillance Scoreboard • MIP-Scoreboard first launched on 14 Feb 2012 • 11 macroeconomic and macro-financial indicators • Data sources are Eurostat and ECB • Additional indicators examined in “in-depth” analysis of imbalances (“Alert mechanism””) • On-going work to compile quality profiles for the indicators

29. Evidence based policy making Action Plan following the IMF/FSB report to the G-20 on “The Financial Crisis and Information Gaps” Principal Global Indicators (PGIs) website: http://www.principalglobalindicators.org/ 20 Recommendations being developed and implemented Key role of the Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics (chaired by the IMF and comprising the BIS, ECB, Eurostat, OECD, WB and the UN) Global level

30. How to access ECB statistics? • ECB website • Press releases • Interactive graphics • Publications • Statistical Data Warehouse http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu

31. Thank you for your attention!!!

32. Annex

33. Core ESCB statistics published by ECB 1/2 • Monetary & financial statistics • Monetary aggregates and counterparts • Balance sheet statistics of Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs), Investment Funds (IFs), Financial Vehicle Corporations (FVC) as well as Insurance Corporations (IC) and Pension Funds (PF) • Statistics on average interest rates (deposits from / loans to households for consumption or housing; deposits from / loans to firms) • Securities issues statistics, yield curves, financial markets price and volume statistics, payments and securities settlement statistics • Financial stability statistics and indicators – also to support the ESRB, Financial integration indicators, STEP Market statistics • External statistics • Balance of payments, international investment position (including international reserves), effective exchange rates, international role of the euro 33

34. Core ESCB statistics published by ECB 2/2 • Euro area accounts • Integrated quarterly accounts (non-financial and financial) by institutional sector encompassing transactions, other flows and balance sheets • Government finance statistics • Revenue, expenditure, deficit, debt, deficit-debt adjustment • Surveys • Survey on the access to finance of Small and Medium Enterprises in the euro area • Household Finance and Consumption Survey • General economic statistics • Seasonally adjusted HICP, residential property price indicator, short-term indicators, timely labour market statistics (e.g. euro area negotiated wages developments) 34