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First Look Presentation to the Regional Technical Forum Residential LED bulbs

First Look Presentation to the Regional Technical Forum Residential LED bulbs. Elizabeth Daykin, BPA Planning Sarah F. Moore, BPA Residential Sector Lead John Wilson, BPA Lighting Program Manager Mark Kendall, Kendall Energy January 23, 2012. LED lamps – they’re here!.

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First Look Presentation to the Regional Technical Forum Residential LED bulbs

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  1. First Look Presentation to the Regional Technical ForumResidential LED bulbs Elizabeth Daykin, BPA Planning Sarah F. Moore, BPA Residential Sector Lead John Wilson, BPA Lighting Program Manager Mark Kendall, Kendall Energy January 23, 2012

  2. LED lamps – they’re here! Source: EPA/Energy Star 2

  3. LEDs - Overview • RTF History: CFLs, Specialty CFLs, and LED Downlights • Measure Definition: LED replacement lamps • Technical Issues and Programmatic Approaches • Unit Energy Savings Estimate • Comparison of primary data sources • Delta Watts (Baseline – Efficient) • Hours of Use • HVAC Interaction, Removal, Storage, and Takeback • Costs • Effective useful life • Next Steps 3

  4. Measure History and Decision • LED Downlightpreviously RTF approved • Separated from Specialty CFLs • New Integral LED Lamp workbook will include LED downlight • Measure sponsor: BPA

  5. LED Lamps Measure Definition • Energy Star Eligibility Criteria - Version 1.4 • Omni-directional (replaces A, BT, P, PS, S, T) • Directional (replaces BR, ER, K, MR, PAR, R) • Decorative (replaces B, BA, C, CA, DC, F, G) • Excludes non-standard lamps • Delivery Channels • Retail • Direct mail (requested / not requested) • Direct install (by location and all locations)

  6. Lamp Types/Categories 6

  7. Residential LED Subcommittee Purpose: Divide and conquer research tasks, contribute to collection of data for UES, collaborate on program design Subcommittee representation: Program, planning and engineering staff representing: Bonneville Power, Puget Sound Energy, Seattle City Light, Snohomish PUD, Tacoma Power, Energy Trust of Oregon, Fluid Market Strategies, Applied Proactive Technologies and PECI. Biases or disclosed conflicts of interest - none Residential LED Subcommittee meetings: 4 meetings: Oct 12, 2012; Oct 30, 2012; Nov 6, 2012; Jan 7, 2013 Met with manufacturers and retailers at October 2012 Energy Star Partner meeting to vet product availability 7

  8. Issues Discussed by Subcommittee • Technical issues • Flicker, dimmability compatibility and current lack of testing criteria • Product specification – elements to assist in predicting quality • Efficacy (lm/watt), Color Rendering Index (CRI), Power Factor (PF) • Program issues • Program design and implementation, regional coordination • Product availability and price • California residential LED specification, ENERGY STAR revisions 8

  9. More detail: Challenges with Flicker • Possible inverse relationship between flicker index and luminous flux. • Some products with a wide range of luminous flux, such as MR16s, may be more susceptible to flicker. • Minimum power requirements for dimmer switch operation. • Will programs need to address switch compatibility? • Are we making too much of this? • NW RBSA indicates only 5 percent of sockets are controlled by dimmers. 9

  10. Addressing these issues Flicker: Tracking standards under development ENERGY STAR - Specification under development (2014) NEMA LSD 49-2010, ”Solid state lighting for incandescent replacement—best practices for dimming” http://www.nema.org/stds/lsd49.cfm IEEE PAR1789 http://grouper.ieee.org/groups/1789/ Dimmability compatibility: program design options Product specifications – which elements predict quality (efficacy, CRI PF): Subcommittee participating with West Coast Lighting Group. Will be comparing notes with CA utilities’ approach to quality. BPA regional promotion will test in-store materials to assist consumer. BPA regional lighting promotion will request product return information from participating retailer (number and reason). 10

  11. Subcommittee recommendations for 2013 • Present Energy Star LED bulbs to Regional Technical Forum • Expect all measures to pass TRC based on preliminary analysis • Both Tier 1 (ETSTAR) and Tier 2 have value to programs • General interest in higher efficacy (65 lm/W) • Power Factor (PF) had value as possible ‘predictor’ of quality • Pilot Tier 2 with BPA’s Simple Steps regional lighting promotion • Provides a defendable way to limit qualified products • Mitigates risk to budget management • Provides opportunity to test return rate of this product class 11

  12. Ongoing data tracking • Regular data collection to track (retail) • Products available at retail that meet spec • Sales volumes • Changes in stocking practices • Current pricing • Rate/reason for product returns

  13. Proposed Sunset Criteria • Earlier of: • Effective Date of Energy Star Integral LED Lamp Update • Currently on draft 3 • Expected to go into effect early 2014 • EISA Halogen baseline update, or • Rapid changes to technology, costs, standards

  14. Unit Energy Savings • Comparison of the primary data sources • Hours of Use • Baseline Watts • Delivery Channels • Storage, Takeback, and Removal Rates • Incremental Costs • Effective Useful Life

  15. Primary Data Sources - RBSA • Residential Building Stock Assessment: Single-Family Characteristics and Energy Use • Ecotope report published October 31, 2012 • Data collection conducted in 2011 • Specific to the Northwest (data collected from more than 1,400 single-family homes) • Report contains valuable high-level lighting information • Database not yet published

  16. Primary Data Sources – KEMA Study • Final Evaluation Report: Upstream Lighting Program • KEMA, Inc. report published February 8, 2010 • Impact evaluation of the 2006-2008 Upstream Lighting Program implemented by PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E • Detailed tables addressing lamp type & lamp shape distribution and wattages • Completed and fully reported • Data source for the Standard CFL and Specialty CFL analyses • Not specific to the Northwest

  17. UES Calculation • Delta Watts (Baseline – Efficient) • Hours of Use • HVAC Interaction • Removal, Storage, and Takeback

  18. Baseline Watts: KEMA 2010

  19. Baseline Challenges • Options: • KEMA data (lamp shape by lamp type) • RBSA detailed data (lamp shape by lamp type) • RBSA high-level summary (lamp type) • Not specific to lamp type • Avoids challenges with lamp shape classification • For efficient watts, we propose using average watts from Energy Star Qualified Products list

  20. Direct Install - Locations • Bathroom • Bedroom • Closet • Dining Room • Exterior • Family Room • Garage • Hall • Kitchen • Laundry Room • Living Room • Master Bedroom • Office • Other • Any Interior • Any Exterior

  21. RBSA Location Baseline 21

  22. KEMA 2010 Location Baseline KEMA, 2010 Report to CPUC Vol 2, Table 21

  23. Location - Comparison

  24. Hours of Use (HOU) • RBSA metering not yet completed/reported • Will use KEMA study • Consistent with • SBW recommendation • Standard CFLs • Specialty CFLs • Except for Direct Install measures, we will use the average 1.9 HOU from the KEMA Study

  25. HVAC Interaction • Propose using the RTF Standard CFL Analysis 15.4% HVAC Interaction Factor

  26. Storage, Takeback, & Removal Rates • Storage Rate for Delivery Channels • Direct Mail non-request • apply 23.7% storage rate from RBSA 2012 • Direct Mail by-request, Direct Install, and Retail • Due to cost, assume no storage rate • Takeback • Program data collection to determine takeback rates for future analysis • Removal Rate • 4% for all delivery channels except retail

  27. Storage, Takeback, & Removal Rates

  28. Review of LED price trends • Source: http://www.energystar.gov/ia/partners/manuf_res/Bulb_Price_Tracking.xls?2b27-d407 28

  29. LED Lamp Cost • LED Lamp Cost • 2012 NW Costs • Fluid, PSE, Phillips provided data • Chained to 2006 dollars • Replacement Cost • 2013 NW Retail • Incandescent EISA Compliant • CFL 2011- 2012 NEEA Retail Survey

  30. Estimated Costs

  31. Estimated Useful Life (EUL) • Rated life range of 15,000 – 50,000 hours • Industry standard lamp failure defined as either inoperable or 30% lumen depreciation from initial lumens for the mean lamp.   • Energy Star requires • 6,000 hours of lumen maintenance testing (in conformance with IES LM-79-08) • 3-year manufacturer warranty • Proposal: cap lifetime at 12 years for LED's • DEER emerging technologies assumption • Accounts for new (unproven) technology • Accounts for next generation technology adoption

  32. Next Steps • Questions / Research Tasks • EUL • Cost • Baseline Watts • Other

  33. Total Resulting Measures • Measure Permutations by Delivery Channel • Delivery Channels • Retail (by lamp shape): 4 measures • Direct mail – Requested (by lamp shape): 4 measures • Direct mail - Non-requested (by lamp shape): 4 measures • Direct install (by lamp shape, location, & baseline): 256 measures • Recommend rolling direct install by location measures into single measure by baseline and lamp shape (4) • Total possible measures: 272 • Total proposed measures: 16

  34. Research Reviewed Baseline for lamp type, technology, location 2011 Residential Building Stock Assessment: Single-Family Characteristics and Energy Use (September 2012) NEEA, by Ecotope, Inc. http://neea.org/docs/reports/residential-building-stock-assessment-single-family-characteristics-and-energy-use.pdf?sfvrsn=8 2010 Final Evaluation Report: Upstream Lighting Program, Volume 1 (February 8, 2010) CPUC, KEMA, Inc. http://www.energydataweb.com/cpucFiles/18/FinalUpstreamLightingEvaluationReport_2.pdf 2010Final Evaluation Report: Upstream Lighting Program, Volume 2 (February 8, 2010) CPUC, KEMA, Inc http://www.calmac.org/publications/FinalUpstreamLightingEvaluationReport_Vol2_CALMAC.pdf 34

  35. Research reviewed Energy Star specifications: https://www.energystar.gov/products/specs/node/273 http://www.energystar.gov/ia/partners/manuf_res/Bulb_Price_Tracking.xls?2b27-d407 Flicker/Dimmability Compatibility: Exploring Flicker in Solid State Lighting, Michael Poplawski & Naomi J. Miller, PNNL, 2011 http://www.e3tnw.org/Documents/2011%20IES%20flicker%20paper%20poplawski-miller-FINAL.pdf Energy Star Stakeholder Discussion on Dimming http://www.energystar.gov/products/specs/sites/products/files/Dimming%20Work%20for%20Lamps%201%200.pdf Lifetime: Lifetime of white LEDs, US DOE http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/lifetime_white_leds.pdf LED Luminaire Lifetime, June 2011, NGLIA, US DOE http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/led_luminaire-lifetime-guide_june2011.pdf 35

  36. Research Reviewed Cost, replacement CFL 2011-2012 Northwest Residential Lighting Tracking and Monitoring Study (September 2012) NEEA, DNV KEMA, Inc. http://neea.org/docs/reports/2011-2012-northwest-residential-lighting-tracking-and-monitoring-study.pdf?sfvrsn=5 Energy Trust of Oregon Lighting Retail Store Shelf Survey Report, (July 2012), Energy Trust of Oregon, KEMA, Inc Fall 2011 California Lighting Retail Store Shelf Survey Report (May 2012) KEMA, Inc. http://www.calmac.org/publications/2011_CALIFORNIA_LIGHTING_RETAIL_STORE_SHELF_SURVEY_FINAL_REPORT_CALMAC.pdf 36

  37. Impact of Possible Specifications

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