IMGW – Poland Presentation

1. IMGW – Poland Presentation U.S. Approach to Integrated Water Resources and Flood Emergency Management March,2003

2. Integrated Water Management/ Flood Mitigation Process Water Management is a Critical Chain of Events GIS Tools Decision Support Data Communication Forecast Notify Coordinate Actions SenseWater Supply Get Data Where Needed Future Water Availability Decisions Appropriate Individuals Water Mgmt. & Flood Control Decisions

3. What We Do • Produce Weather, Water and Climate Forecasts and Warnings • For All Americans • To Protect Life and Property • To Enhance the National Economy • Data and Products: • Government Agencies • Private Sector • The Public • Global Communities • Weather and data are becoming more important to economy and business decisions • “The annual cost of electricity could decrease by at least $1 billion if the accuracy of weather forecasts improved 1 degree Fahrenheit.” USA Today, 6/19/01

4. Who We Are • Citizen Centric • 92% of Operations Budget is Field (Labor, Telecomms, Power, Rent, etc.) • 88% of all Labor is in Field • We Are Scientific • 2/3 Scientists

5. Who We Are Office of the Assistant Administrator For Weather Services Eastern Region Central Region Southern Region Western Region Alaska Region Pacific Region National Centers for Environmental Prediction 3 WFO’s 2 WFO’s 23 WFO’s 38 WFO’s 31 WFO’s 24 WFO’s Environmental Modeling Center Hydro- meteorological Prediction Center 1 RFC’s 3 RFC’s 2 RFC’s 4 RFC’s 3 RFC’s Storm Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center (National Hurricane Center) Marine Prediction Center Office of theChief InformationOfficer Office of theChief Financial Officer Office of Climate, Water, & Weather Services Office of Operational Systems Office of Science & Technology Office of Hydrologic Development Central Operations Climate Prediction Center National Reconditioning Center NWS Training Center Meteorological Development Laboratory Hydrology Laboratory Aviation Weather Center Space EnvironmentCenter Field Systems Operations Center Systems Engineering Center Radar Operations Center Telecommunications Operations Center HQs Field National Data Buoy Center

6. NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)

7. NWS River Forecast Centers (RFCs)

8. Weather Warning Partnership

9. Radar, Stream Gages, Rain Gages To/from NCEP To/from RFC River Forecast Center Hydrologic Forecasters Integrated, observed, and forecast data for RFC basins Data assimilation, integration, and Analysis Weather Forecast Office Service Hydrologists Precipitation Analysis Local QPF and QTF, general precipitation forecasts Flash flood watches, river flood warnings National Center for Environmental Prediction Quantitative guidance forecasts – QPF, QTF Large scale computer weather forecasts County and Subcounty Level Info. River and weather forecasts and warnings, flash flood warnings, FFG Feedback Hydrologic Users Flow of Hydrologic Products and Guidance

10. International ActivitiesTechnology Transfer • Provide technical assistance to International lending Institutions • Distribute NWS technology to national/ international users • Establish projects to implement Meteorological and Hydrological Forecast Systems with countries

11. Past China 1994-1995 Panama 1996-1998 Nile River Basin 1992-2000 Central A. (MITCH) 1999-2001 Asia-Aral Sea 1999-2002 Current Mexico 1996-2003 Central America (CAMI) 2000-2003 South Africa 1997-Present Czech Republic 1998-Present Poland 2002-2004 Romania 2003 ? Mekong/Hindu Kush 2003-2005 India 2003 ? Russia 2003 ? Iraq ? International Experience

12. Who We Are Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Team: Community Weather Experts • Issues all Local Forecasts & Warnings • Builds and Maintains Relationships With Local and State Governments • Provides Expert Advice to Emergency Operations Centers • Solicits Customer Feedback on Products and Services • Conducts Community Awareness and Education Programs • Trains Volunteer Observers and Storm Spotters

13. Central Guidance Local Offices How We Do It Observe Process Products & Services Respond & Feedback Distribute IBM SP at Bowie Computer Center in Bowie, MD Feedback

14. Cooperators

15. U.S. Flood Forecast And Response Structure FLOOD RESPONSE USERS FEMA State Emergency Management County Emergency Management City Emergency Management MEDIA Transportation Red Cross FLOODMITIGATIONACTIONS NWS FLOOD FORECASTS

16. Users Public Emergency Management Private Sector Government Agencies Academia Methods NOAA Weather Radio NOAAPORT Weather Wire Internet Emergency Managers Weather Information Network (EMWIN) How We Do It

17. National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Data Sources • Cooperative observers via ROSA • Data Collection Platforms via GOES • GOES images • Cooperative federal water agencies • Synoptic surface observation network (ASOS) • Automated flood warning systems • Limited area remote collector (precipitation, stage) • Satellite rainfall estimates • NEXRAD radar derived rainfall estimates • SNOTEL - high elevation snow measurement • Airborne Gamma Radiation Snow Survey

18. Data Collection Platform (DCP)

19. Radar and Satellite Precipitation Estimation

20. 1000 m AGL 2000 m AGL 3000 m AGL Coverage Of The WSR-88D Network Over The US Source: Maddox, et. al. Weather and Forecasting, 2002.

21. Rainfall Estimates - Multi-sources of Data IR VIS SOUNDING GOES NASA TRMM NASA EOS TMI PR VIRS MODIS IR+VIS ASTER CERES Precipitable Water Wind Speed + Direction Topography (Elevation + Slope) Radar Gauge Surface Temperature Soil Moisture Vegetation

22. Surface Obs, NCEP Guidance Local data WSR-88D Radar Satellite data Flash Flood Guidance Data Data from New Observing Systems LDAD Database SCAN/FFMP AWIPS D2D Flash Flood and Severe Local Storm Warnings 1,3,6 Hours DPA,DHR Data Environment Watch/Warning Decision Assistance

23. Predicting Flash Floods Using Radar and Satellite • Use GIS Data To Define Models & Streams • Merge Satellite and Radar Precipitation Estimates • Use Distributed Hydrologic models • Link QPF To Small Scale Models

24. End-to-End Forecast Process Integrated Water Management and Flood Mitigation Decision Support Data Notify Communication Coordinate Forecast Actions

25. Establishing an Integrated Water Management and Flood Mitigation Program Establish Meteorological And Hydrological Observing Network Real Time Data Acquisition, Communication, DBMS Remote Sensing Necessary Because Of Real Time Data Limitations Develop Meteorological Forecast Capability-qpf Develop forecasting using existing technical resources Implement mesoscale NWP model

26. Establishing an Integrated Water Management and Flood Mitigation Program • Implement Hydrologic Modeling System • Acquire historical hydrometeorological data • Acquire GIS/Link to modeling system for calibration • Multi-hydrologic model capability is requirement • (snowmelt,rainfall-runoff,channel routing,hydrodynamic routing) • Modeling system must be flexible to data availability

27. Establishing an Integrated Water Management and Flood Mitigation Program Couple Meteorological Model To Hydrologic Modeling System Link Hydrologic Forecast System To Decision Support System Forecasts linked with Response System Forecasts linked to water resources users

28. Establishing an Integrated Water Management and Flood Mitigation Program • Forecasts Tailored to Users • Use visualization products to communicate impact • Disseminate Forecasts & Data to Users • Use mass media • RANET • Apply Operations Concept • Develop Capacity and Sustainability

29. Thank you!