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Alpine Research Project 2004-2007 Terry Walshe Environmental Science School of Botany

Alpine Research Project 2004-2007 Terry Walshe Environmental Science School of Botany University of Melbourne. Will a 1-2 degree temperature increase affect the distribution of alpine plants?. Jane Elith & Frith Jarrad. Pimelia. Now. +1  C. +2  C. +3  C. +4  C. +5  C.

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Alpine Research Project 2004-2007 Terry Walshe Environmental Science School of Botany

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  1. Alpine Research Project 2004-2007 Terry Walshe Environmental Science School of Botany University of Melbourne

  2. Will a 1-2 degree temperature increase affect the distribution of alpine plants? Jane Elith & Frith Jarrad Pimelia

  3. Now

  4. +1C

  5. +2C

  6. +3C

  7. +4C

  8. +5C

  9. Will temperature and precipitation changes affect the distribution of peatlands? Andrea White Current distribution Predicted distribution (assuming 50% reduction in run-off, 2070).

  10. Will a 1-2 degree temperature increase affect the growth and flowering of alpine plants? Frith Jarrad

  11. Is facilitation important at high sites? Terry Walshe Relative growth of Celmisia pugioniformis having neighbours removed and retained at the Bogong High Plains over three growing seasons. • The incidence of mortality for • Celmisia pugioniformis and • (b) Carex breviculmis • having neighbours removed • (open symbols) • and retained (filled symbols)

  12. Co-gradient response expected to be an advantage when species experience new environments Is heritable genetic variation associated with important responses to climate change? Sean Byars and Ary Hoffman

  13. Poa hiemata – field variation by altitude and reciprocal transplant response

  14. What to do? Decision-making under climate change uncertainty

  15. a mantra…. • Uncertainties are everywhere • Experts are over-confident • We need tools and protocols that make sensible use of expert knowledge NASA 1985: ‘the risk of catastrophic failure is 1 in 100,000 launches’

  16. overconfidence….

  17. Decision table

  18. LWWS Asset Objective • To “RECOVER” the existing (2003) waterbird species richness and abundance and living assemblages of the Lake Warden Wetland System to a near natural state, by the year 2030. • Hydrological threats pose the greatest risk to failure.

  19. Management Options • Perennial revegetation • Engineering • Both • Neither (do nothing) • Monitoring & Evaluation

  20. Lake Warden decision table Performance measure for Lake Warden: Chance of >8000 wader birds in any one year Source: Suppiah and Durack (2005). Climate Change Scenarios for southwestern Western Australia. CSIRO, Marine and Atmospheric Research.

  21. Lake Warden decision table (hypothetical) Can we trust these numbers?

  22. Info-gap…..which management action?

  23. Unpacking our understanding -Lake Warden BBN

  24. Lake Warden BBN

  25. Lake Warden decision table (best guess)

  26. Lake Warden Info-gap

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