1 / 5

SCENARIOS

P( q ). q 1. q 2. q 3. q 4. q 5. q. SCENARIOS. Discretize it. Option 1: pick values of probabilities. For example, for 3 values, pick 25%, 50% and 25% probability and find the values. Use the cumulative curve to locate the numbers. Consider each parameter probability distribution.

halee-dean
Download Presentation

SCENARIOS

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. P(q) q1 q2 q3 q4 q5 q SCENARIOS Discretize it. Option 1: pick values of probabilities. For example, for 3 values, pick 25%, 50% and 25% probability and find the values. Use the cumulative curve to locate the numbers. Consider each parameter probability distribution.

  2. P(q) q1 q2 q3 q4 q5 q SCENARIOS Option 2: pick equal probability values and find parameter values. For example, for 3 values, pick 33% and locate the points. Use the cumulative curve to do this.

  3. P(q) q1 q2 q3 q4 q5 q SCENARIOS Option 3: pick values (equidistantly or randomly) and find the probability that corresponds to them from the area they “span”. Use the cumulative curve for this.

  4. SCENARIOS EXAMPLE: 2 parameters (θ1, θ2). If each parameter is discretized in three instances (θi,low, 25%, θi,avg 50%, θi,hig 25%) Each scenario is constructed by picking one realization for each parameter.

  5. SCENARIOS Scenario Probability Scenario Probability θ1,low, θ2,low 6.25% θ1,hig, θ2,low 6.25% θ1,low, θ2,avg 12.5% θ1,hig, θ2,avg 12.5% θ1,low, θ2,hig 6.25% θ1,hig, θ2,hig 6.25% θ1,avg, θ2,low 12.5% θ1,avg, θ2,avg 25.0% SUM OF ALL θ1,avg, θ2,hig 12.5% PROBABILITIES=1

More Related