1 / 8

Scenarios

Scenarios. What are CNS scenarios?. C hanges in N utrient flows into the watersheds Atmospheric deposition Imported food, feed, fertilizer BMP implementation types, location Landscapes alterations

sacha-rich
Download Presentation

Scenarios

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Scenarios

  2. What are CNS scenarios? • Changes in • Nutrient flows into the watersheds • Atmospheric deposition • Imported food, feed, fertilizer • BMP implementation • types, location • Landscapes alterations • Cropland, pasture land, riparian buffer, urban/suburban intensification or green infrastructure, etc. • Cropping activities • POTW discharges

  3. What will we use them for? • Experimental treatments • Generate data from model simulations and analyses to address objectives related to science & policy questions • Some generated by us • Some generated with stakeholders • Generate insights about how to work with stakeholders to elicit, present, and evaluate scenarios process and tools development objectives

  4. Center for Nutrient Solutions Jan 2014

  5. Examples • What are the economic and ecological benefits of spatial targeting of BMPs and land retirement to achieve the Bay TMDL? • Compare “least-cost” set of BMPs located in space to solution to random draws of WIP BMPs • What are the economic and ecological tradeoffs between BMPs, land retirement, reduced external nutrient inputs? • Redo the above with plausible changes in atmospheric deposition or other nutrient imports?

  6. Selecting Scenarios • What are the specific science and policy questions we want to address? • E.g., Change in nutrient flows regionally, or implementation of Bay recommended most efficient BMPs, protection of most sensitive habitats • What are the experimental designs that allow us to address them within the resource and other project constraints? • E.g., Multiple practices with multiple locations make for a huge set of alternatives

  7. Selection strategies • About 6 options maximum per watershed (e.g., H, M, L intensity x 2 spatial configurations) • Possible type criteria (can be used in combo.): • Sort by N, P, S reduction efficiencies • Focus on selected ecosystem services • Sort by cost efficiency • Compatibility with farming systems, perhaps determined by stakeholders • Others???

  8. Approach • Conduct scenarios building workshop with smaller cadre of CNS personnel (June) • Refine scenarios working with Informatics Team • Deliver suggested options to Community Partners Council ahead of Sept. All Hands Mtg. • Discuss responses of CPC at All Hands Mtg. at SERC in Sept. • Implement modeling and assessment of this first set of scenarios on target watersheds

More Related