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ISE 216 Question Hour

ISE 216 Question Hour. Mar. 8th 2011. Q.28. Shoreline Park has kept close tabs on the number of patrons using the park since its openning in January 1993. for the first six months of operation , the following figures were recorded .

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ISE 216 Question Hour

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  1. ISE 216Question Hour Mar. 8th 2011

  2. Q.28 Shoreline Park has keptclosetabs on thenumber of patronsusingthe park since itsopenning in January 1993. forthefirstsixmonthsof operation, thefollowingfigureswererecorded. • Computeinterceptandslopefromtheregressionequations. • Whataretheforecastsobtainedforjulythroughdecember 1993 fromtheregressionequation. • Comment on theresultsyouobtained in part c.

  3. Q. 30 Forthe data in problem 28, usetheresults of theregressionequationtoestimatetheslopeandintercept of theseries at theend of june. Usethesenumbers as theinitialvalues of slopeandinterceptrequired in Holt’smethod. Asssumethatalpha=0.15, beta=0.10 forallcalculations. a) Suppose that the actual number of visitors using the park in July was 2150 and the number in august was 2660. useHolt’smethodtoupdatetheestimates of theslopeandimterceptbased on theseobservations. b) What are the one step ahead and two step ahead forecasts that Holt’s method gives for the number of park visitors in september and october? ANSWER FOR PART b: One-step-ahead forecast made in Aug. for Sept. is S­2 + G2 = 3525.7 Two-step-ahead forecast made in Aug for Oct is S2 + G2 = 3040 + 2(485.7) = 4011.4 c) What is the forecast made at the end of july for the number of park attendees in december?

  4. Q. 35 A popular brand of tennisshoe has had thefollowingdemandhistorybyquartersover a threeyearperiod. a) Using the data from 1991 to 1992, determine initial values of intercept, slope, and seasonal factors for Winter’s method. b) assume that the observed demand for the first quarter of 1993 was 18. using alpha=0.2, beta=0.15, and gamma=0.10, update the estimates of the series, the slope, and the seasonal factors. c) What are the forecasts made at the end of the first quarter 0f 1993 for the remaining three quarters?

  5. ANSWER 35

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