Hazard Loss Estimates of Assets at Florida A&M University

1. Hazard Loss Estimates of Assets at Florida A&M University Jenna Pagnotti Remy Agenor Advisor: Makola M. Abdullah, Ph.D.

2. Outline • Background • HAZUS®MH • Research Objectives • Methodology • Results • Conclusion • Recommendations • Future Work • Acknowledgements

3. Natural Disasters • Most common: earthquakes, floods, tornados, and hurricanes • 800,000 people killed worldwide in the 1990s • Over 250 million people affected in 2003 • Caused $65 billion in damages in 2003 alone • $280 billion could have been saved if $40 billion was spent on mitigation (The World Bank Group 2005)

4. Natural Disasters in Florida • 2004 Hurricane Season • Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne • $23 billion in losses • 79 deaths • Surpassed Hurricane Andrew (http://www.FEMA.gov)

5. Categories 1 and 2 • Category 1: Minimal Damage (74-95 mph) • Broken tree branches • Bent and broken signs • Some damage to mobile homes • Category 2: Moderate Damage (96-110 mph) • Heavy damage to trees • Some damage to roofs, windows and doors • Major damage to mobile homes (http://meted.ucar.edu)

6. Categories 3 and 4 • Category 3: Extensive Damage (111-130 mph) • Large trees knocked down • Buildings near shore destroyed • Flooding near coast • Damage to roofs, windows, and doors • Category 4: Extreme Damage (131-155 mph) • Severe damage to homes • Mobile homes completely destroyed • Widespread flooding (http://meted.ucar.edu)

7. Category 5 • Category 5: Catastrophic Damage (156+ mph) • Completely destroys roofs on many buildings • Some buildings completely destroyed • Small buildings overturned or blown away • Very severe damage to buildings near the shore (http://meted.ucar.edu)

8. Major Florida Hurricanes • Since 1851, 36% of hurricanes in the US made landfall. • A look at major hurricanes (category 3 or higher) (http://www.Sun-Sentinel.com)

9. Hurricane Dennis – July 10-11, 2005 (http://www.yahoo.com)

10. FEMA • Federal Emergency Management Agency • Part of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security • Prepare for hazards • Manage recovery efforts • Initiate proactive mitigation program (http://www.fema.gov)

11. Florida A&M University • Established 1887 in Tallahassee, FL • 419 Acres • Largest Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCU) in U.S. • 3900 Faculty and Staff • 13,000 Students (http://www.famu.edu)

12. Florida A&M University • Campus consists of 171 buildings • 35 faculty facilities • 14 Research Facilities (3000 – 7500 sq ft.) • 49 Dorms and Apartments (44,000 – 90,000 sq ft.) • 26 Classroom Buildings (15,000– 100,000 sq ft.) • 10 Athletic Facilities • 15 Temporary Trailers (Lee Hall) (http://www.famu.edu)

13. Satellite Campuses • FAMU/FSU College of Engineering • Tallahassee, FL • JA Mulrennan College of Entomology • Panama City, FL FAMU/FSU College of Engineering (http:www.Innovation-park.com)

14. Research Objectives • Create a realistic hurricane scenario • Analyze probability curves from HAZUS®MH • Estimate direct losses due to hurricanes at Florida A&M University using HAZUS®MH

15. Direct Losses • Losses in which buildings are damaged physically. • Structures • Contents • Building interiors (http://www.fema.gov)

16. HAZUS®MHBasics • Estimates potential losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricane winds • Uses state-of-the-art Geographic Information System (GIS) • Displays results of damages • Analyzes a study region

17. HAZUS®MHCalculating Loss • Formulas calculate damage probability • Expected Building Loss • Expected Content Loss • Expected Loss-of-Use • Results are used to estimate direct economic losses

18. Building Database • Location • Frame type (steel, wood, etc.) • Occupancy Classes • Residential • Commercial • Educational • Wind Exposure • Suburban – Tallahassee locations • Oceanfront – Panama City, FL location • Wind Shielding • 3 sides shielded – main campus • Buildings with obviously less 3 sides = number of actual sides shielded

19. Building Database • Shielding Height • Similar building height • Similar tree height • Wind Debris Source • Unknown wind direction • Unknown debris • Topography • Slope – Tallahassee locations • Flat – Panama City, FL location • Percentage of doors and windows using model • Uses two buildings from each class (auxiliary, administration, instructional) • Ratio as a function of square footage

20. Main Campus User – Defined Storm Track W – User-defined facilities

21. User – Defined Hurricane • Based on category-two hurricane (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov)

22. User – Defined Hurricane • 58 storm systems within a 25 nautical mile radius • Most are tropical storms (http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov)

23. Parameters for Hurricane • Translational speed – 34.52 mph • Radius to maximum winds – 22.37 mi • Wind speed – 110 mph • Barometric pressure – 972 mbars

26. Results

27. Results

28. Direct Losses for Main Campus Buildings

29. Conclusion • Built database • Created hurricane scenario • Input parameters • Determined probability of damage • Replacement and contents values: $256,342,000 • Losses estimate $3,204,910

30. Recommendations • Research of mitigation techniques • Form mitigation plan • Use of different estimation software

31. Future Work • Run strongest storm possible • Estimate damage due to extremely high sustained winds • Compare HAZUS probabilistic storm results to user-defined storm • Estimate damages due to different storms • Determine the loss of a building as a function of damage probability • Individual loss of buildings cannot be calculated by HAZUS • Design a function that will calculate these losses

32. Acknowledgements • We would like to thank the following for their continued help: Wind Hazard and Earthquake Engineering Laboratory • Makola M. Abdullah, Ph. D. • Waleed T. Barnawi • Karla A. Villarreal-Morga Office of Environmental Health and Safety • James Conoly Office of Facilities Planning and Construction • Samuel Houston • Karen Green-Brown