SHRPII Project C04: Improving Our Understanding of How Congestion & Pricing Affect Travel Demand

1. SHRPII Project C04:Improving Our Understanding of How Congestion & Pricing Affect Travel Demand PB / Parsons Brinckerhoff Northwestern University Mark Bradley Research & Consulting Resource System Group University of California at Irvine University of Texas at Austin SHRPII C04: TEG Meeting, Washington, DC - January 14, 2010

2. Project Overview and Objectives Bob Donnelly, Project Manager SHRPII C04: TEG Meeting, Washington, DC - January 14, 2010

3. Research Vision: 3 Domains Data Pricing & Congestion Supply / Networks Demand / Choice SHRPII C04: TEG Meeting, Washington, DC - January 14, 2010

4. Core Research Team: Principal Investigators Mark Bradley Bob Donnelly(PM) Hani Mahmassani NU Peter Vovsha PB SHRPII C04: TEG Meeting, Washington, DC - January 14, 2010

5. Research Team: Other Key Members • Tom Adler, RSG • Rosella Picado / Surabhi Gupta (PB) • Ken Small / David Brownstone (UC-Irvine) • Kara Kockelman, UT-Austin • Frank Koppelman • John Bowman • Jean Wolf, GeoStats SHRPII C04: TEG Meeting, Washington, DC - January 14, 2010

6. Primary Objectives and Focus of CO4 Research • Assess, select and thoroughly analyze travel behavior data in order to formulate and recommend ways to better and more fully model important impacts of congestion and pricing on travelers and transportation systems, leading to “break-through” solutions, in general and with respect to some key issues: • Highway utility formulation – assessment of delays /time in congestion • Heteroscedasticity of travelers’ VOT, • Reliability of travel • Site specific testing - estimation of new relationships / impacts of pricing & congestion & travel demand, with validation of findings and testing for cross sites / transferability • Consideration of implications and requirement for application, with some implementation testing / demonstration • Synthesis of findings and general recommendations for model developers, with an emphasis on model structure and statistical estimation of parameters SHRPII C04: TEG Meeting, Washington, DC - January 14, 2010

7. Primary Data to support modeling advancements: • Travel behavior data: • Stated Preference surveys (SP) – choice experiments, endogenous supply measures • Revealed Preference surveys (RP), supplemented with supply-side measures • Panel surveys / Repeated measurements • Time and costs / networks: observed and simulated: • “Snapshot” – concurrent with demand measures • Time-series / longitudinal – (e.g. variability/reliability) • Forecasting simulation capability • Modeling systems • Source of road use cost and LOS measures affecting • Capacity to absorb advanced methods (i.e., ABM+dynamic simulation framework) SHRPII C04: TEG Meeting, Washington, DC - January 14, 2010

8. C04 Research Settings • Principal Sites: Integrated regional data and implementation testing: • San Francisco (SFCTA, MTC) • Seattle (PSRC) • New York (NYMTC, MTA, NYCDOT, PANYNJ) • Supporting Sites: Project site specific analysis / Transferability testing: • Minneapolis: I-394 MnPASS HOT (MnDOT) • Chicago (CMAP) • San Diego: I-15 ML (SANDAG) • Orange County: SR-91 (OCTA) • Baltimore Region: DYNASMART-P • NY BPM Region: Mode and Route choice demand model implementation with DYNASMART-P SHRPII C04: TEG Meeting, Washington, DC - January 14, 2010

9. Heading to finish … Past: Project development and enhancement of data were more consuming time and resources than expected Present: With time extension, the focus is now intensely on completing and integrating the model estimation, addressing and documenting necessary technical details Next: Recognize the need for generalized findings to emerge that will inform modelers (and their patrons) regarding productive paths for model improvements related to highway congestion and pricing HRPII C04: TEG Meeting, Washington, DC - January 14, 2010