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Projections Methodology

Projections Methodology. Budget Advisory Council October 17, 2012. Enrollment History. Enrollment History. Size of Kindergartens Increasing. Class Size by Grade (2011-12). Projected Capacity Need. Projections Process. Both a top-down and bottom-up approach

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Projections Methodology

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  1. Projections Methodology Budget Advisory Council October 17, 2012

  2. Enrollment History

  3. Enrollment History

  4. Size of Kindergartens Increasing

  5. Class Size by Grade (2011-12)

  6. Projected Capacity Need

  7. Projections Process • Both a top-down and bottom-up approach • K-12 system total projected using a variety of models • Forecast/Regression • Average Rate of Change • Weighting • Choose a model and thus a Grand Total of K-12 students • School level projections based on a 3-year average cohort-survival rate • Total Kindergarten based on average capture from resident live births 5 years prior • School Kindergartens based on 3 year capture average • PreK held constant, based on budget

  8. School-Based Projections

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