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FEMA Region III Storm Surge Project

FEMA Region III Storm Surge Project. Project Update. Jeff Hanson Region III Storm Surge Project Manager USACE-FRF. June 4, 2009 RENCI, Chapel Hill, NC. Agenda. 9:00 Welcome, introductions, logistics, (Hanson) 9:10 Project overview and milestone status (Hanson)

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FEMA Region III Storm Surge Project

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  1. FEMA Region III Storm Surge Project Project Update Jeff Hanson Region III Storm Surge Project Manager USACE-FRF June 4, 2009 RENCI, Chapel Hill, NC

  2. Agenda 9:00 Welcome, introductions, logistics, (Hanson) 9:10 Project overview and milestone status (Hanson) 9:30 DEM status (Forte, Stillwell, Miller) 10:40 Grid generation (Atkinson, Roberts) 11:00 Tropical storm selection and methods (Vickery) 12:00 Lunch 1:00 Data archival and database (Gamiel) 1:20 Visualization (Blanton, ECSU) 1:40 Schedule update/issues (Drei-Horgan) 2:00 Region 3 production phase (Blanton) 3:00 Adjourn

  3. Phase 2 (2010) Compute and assess the Region III flood hazard values for 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-yr return periods Project Objectives Phase 1 (2008-2009) Develop, validate and prepare a storm surge modeling capability for the assessment of future inundation risks in the FEMA Region III area • Consistent 10-m DEM for the region • Extratropical storm wind fields • Hurricane storm hazard (JPM approach) • Integrated flood risk modeling system • GIS database and display capacity

  4. Project Organization Hurricane Program Manager Robin Danforth FEMA / DHS Region III Advisory Board R. Luettich (UNC-CH) B. Ebersole (USACE-CHL) J. Smith (USACE-CHL) K. White (USACE-CRREL) K. Galluppi (RENCI) M. Powell (DE) R. Wise (NAP) USACE Storm Surge Program Manager J. Hanson (USACE-FRF) J. Roughton (USACE-FRF) D. Nelson (USACE-CRREL) Project Support J. Gangai (Dewberry) E. Drei-Horgan (Dewberry) B. Batten (Dewberry) Bathy / Topo M. Forte (USACE-FRF) L. Stillwell (RENCI) J. Miller (NAP) C. Rourke (NAP) M. Hudgins (NAO) P. Moye (NAO) M. Schuster (NAB) J. Scott (NAB) M. Callough (ARCADIS) R. Floyd (ARCADIS) P. Estes (ARCADIS) Storm Specification P. Vickery (ARA) V. Cardone (Oceanweather) A. Cox (Oceanweather) Modeling System B. Blanton (RENCI) P. Vickery (ARA) V. Cardone (Oceanweather) A. Cox (Oceanweather) H. Friebel (NAP) E. Devaliere (UNC) C. Fulcher (UNC) J. Atkinson (ARCADIS) H. Roberts (ARCADIS) GIS Database K. Gamiel (RENCI) B. Blanton (RENCI) M. Forte (USACE-FRF) J. Yuan (ECSU)

  5. Project Status Accomplishments • Bathy/Topo Inventory (NAP, NAO, NAB) • Draft DEM (RENCI, FRF, ARCADIS) • Initiate DEM Review (NAP, NAO, NAB) • Initiate mesh development (ARCADIS) • Establish JPM approach (ARA) • Storm selection and windfield development (Oceanweather) • Prototype modeling system (RENCI, ARA, Oceanweather, FRF) • Validation tools – Interactive Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (IMEDS) (FRF)

  6. Hurricane Ernesto

  7. Interactive Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (IMEDS) Observations Hurricane Isabel Event Database IMEDS Processor Hurricane Ernesto Extratropical Storms Error metrics Diagnostics Skill Scores Storm Surge Modeling System Winds Waves Water Levels

  8. RMS Error 0.6 m Bias -0.1 m Scatter Index 0.16 Hurricane Isabel (September 2003)IMEDS Results for WaveWatch III Station 44009 Wave Height (m) Overall Skill = 85% Wave Height Errors Wave Height (m)

  9. Project Status Anticipated Timeline JUL 09 AUG 09 SEP 09 OCT 09 NOV 09 DEC 09 JAN 10 FEB 10 DEM Review, TS Track Parameters Final Mesh Submittal #1 Review Model Calibration Model Validation Submittal #2 Review Finalize Modeling System Ready for Production

  10. Event 3: September 22 – 28 Windsea Hurricane Isabel, Chesapeake Bay

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