Conclusion: Bringing it all Together

1. POLI 404 Conclusion: Bringing it all Together

2. Agenda • Simulation debrief • Final exam overview • Course overview • Core elements • Themes

3. Simulation

4. EBM Simulation • 65% retention

5. Undergrad ABT Simulation • Reallocation of tenure • Industry 1/3 • First Nations 1/3 • Communities and regional organizations 1/3

6. Grad ABT Simulation • 100% of tenures from large corporations are converted • 8% of industrial licences reallocated to First Nations • And licensees are committed to economic diversification of value added

7. Simulation feedback • What one thing could be improved for the preparation for the simulation? • What one thing could be improved about the simulation evening itself?

8. Final Exam • December 12 – 3:30-5:30 • 2 hour exam • All material from policy agenda+ formulation forward • Responsible for themes for whole course • Responsible for specifics of readings and lectures only from agenda and formulation forward except section of Chap 1 ISOS on policy cycle • Review session: Tu Dec 10?

9. What are the two most significant things you learned in this course?

10. Most significant learnings

12. Course Organization • Forces at work framework • Cases • Great Bear Rainforest • Mountain Pine Beetle • How government works • Interest Groups: Strategies and Resources • First Nations – Transformation of Governance • International Context • US Influence • Policy Cycle • Policy Formulation • Decision-making and Policy Design • Implementation • New Values: Carbon (and Bio-energy) • Comparisons

13. Key elements • Forces at work framework • How government works • Interest Groups: Strategies and Resources • First Nations – Transformation of Governance • International Context • US Influence • Policy Cycle • Policy Formulation • Decision-making and Policy Design • Implementation • New Values: Carbon and Bio-energy • Comparisons

14. What are the two things you most wanted to learn about that were missing?

15. What’ s missing?

16. Key elements • Forces at work framework • How government works • Interest Groups • First Nations • International Context • US Influence • Policy Cycle • Policy Formulation • Decision-making and Policy Design • Implementation • New Values: Carbon and Bio-energy • Comparisons • Cases • Great Bear Rainforest • Mountain Pine Beetle Policy Categories tenure Stumpage Rate of harvest Land Use zoning Regulation of Forest Practices Emergent areas – carbon

17. Analytical Framework: Forces at work in natural resources policy governance policies environment actions markets Conse- quences

18. Institutions and Governance • Policies are produced through governance processes, influenced by environment and markets. • Governance addresses who decides, who participates, at what level of government, and with which instruments. • Canadian forest policy is dominated by the provincial level of government. • BC’s government is dominated by the executive, particularly the premier. • Courts have played a limited role in forest policy, with the exception of Aboriginal issues, because of the discretionary nature of BC statutes. • Institutional design matters because the balance of preferences may change as the location of authority changes

19. Actors: Strategies and Resources • Actors in the policy process have interests and resources, and adopt strategies designed to best use those resources in pursuit of their interests • Politicians are primarily driven by electoral incentives, making public opinion a significant constraint on government action • Business control over investment gives it a structural advantage • Public opinion is far more influential on policy makers when it is salient • Environmentalists have effectively used market-oriented strategies to increase their power

20. First Nations • First Nations have effectively used the courts to increase their power • The BC government has undergone a profound shift in relations towards First Nations, from active repression through resistance and now apparently sincere efforts at reconciliation

21. International Influences • Changes in international markets and technology have undercut BC’s comparative advantage • A combination of globally valued resources and reliance on trade makes BC highly vulnerable to international influences • Certification has increased the influence of private standard-setting organizations but there is little evidence of on-the-ground impacts

22. US Influence • US trade pressures have pushed costs up and constrained BC’s policy sovereignty. • BC’s market-oriented forest policy reforms were strongly influenced by trade pressures by the United States

23. Agenda-Setting Policy Formulation Decisionmaking Policy Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation 5 stage Policy Cycle Model

24. Policy CycleAgenda-setting • Issues get on the government agenda through a confluence of problem and politics streams

25. Policy CyclePolicy Formulation • Policy formulation involves both “thinking” (analysis) and “talking” (consultation with stakeholders) • The best argument explicitly addresses an opponents’ strongest claim and addresses it with evidence and reason

26. Policy Cycle:Decision-making • Because of the challenges to conflict resolution, policy is often made without clarifying objectives • Because of limited resources, rational decision-making is usually not feasible • A major challenge for forest policy making is designing policies to accommodate spatial diversity • Forest practices regulation in BC relies on a combination of vague performance objectives, practice requirements, and planning requirements. In comparative terms, BC’s regulatory framework is highly stringent.

27. Implementation Challenges • There is a tension between factors for success in decision-making (agreement) and implementation (clarity and specificity) • The meaning is in the detail: it is impossible to understand how policy affects the distribution of values without understanding the details of policy design and implementation.

28. Emerging Values: Carbon, Bio-energy • BC’s forests can potentially contribute to greenhouse gas reductions, but immense complexity and uncertainty make effective and efficient policy design very difficult • Forest bioenergy in BC is likely to be a significant, economical source of energy only as a residual product of the forest sector.

29. Comparative context • In comparative context, BC forest policy is relatively distinct in a number of ways, among them: a high level of government ownership, the limited role for the federal government, and a focus on natural forest management in old growth forests.

30. From next Tuesday • Potential beneficial policy changes are frequently thwarted by intellectual, political, and/or institutional obstacles. Path dependence increases the costs of change.

31. Key elements • Forces at work framework • How government works • Interest Groups • First Nations • International Context • US Influence • Policy Cycle • Policy Formulation • Decision-making and Policy Design • Implementation • New Values: Carbon and Bio-energy • Comparisons • Cases • Great Bear Rainforest • Mountain Pine Beetle Policy Categories tenure Stumpage Rate of harvest Land Use zoning Regulation of Forest Practices Emergent areas – carbon, energy

32. Thursday • More feedback on course – how to improve it for next year? • What would a more “sustainable” future look like? • What are the barriers to achieving that? • How can we overcome them?