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Comments from an Oil Industry Perspective L. White, CONCAWE

Uncertainty Treatment in Integrated Assessment Modelling A Workshop of the UN/ECE TFIAM-IIASA January 24/25 2002. Comments from an Oil Industry Perspective L. White, CONCAWE. Uncertainties in IAM: Key Concerns for Industry.

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Comments from an Oil Industry Perspective L. White, CONCAWE

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  1. Uncertainty Treatment in Integrated Assessment ModellingA Workshop of the UN/ECE TFIAM-IIASA January 24/25 2002 Comments from an Oil Industry Perspective L. White, CONCAWE

  2. Uncertainties in IAM: Key Concerns for Industry • Overall IAM provides framework for developing target driven legislation using principles of sound science and cost-effectiveness-In principle strongly supported by Oil Industry • Approach offers policy makers direct connection between “complex science” and “practical policy” • This surely places significant societal responsibility on the scientific community to ensure effects of uncertainties are also expressed in terms implications for “practical policy” • Communication and transparency key to confidence in policy based on IAM • Industry concern over uncertainties focuses on design of robust policy: + Uncertainties more significant when policy measures are at the steep part of cost curve + Single time horizon for policy guidance of concern in changing world + Sectoral burden sharing more vulnerable to single horizon year than national burden sharing e.g., dynamic in changeover of vehicle fleets, changes in energy patterns + How can IAM provide a policy surface rather than policy point? + Large base case changes pose the question “Will the science of the past/present hold for the new policy horizon year(s)?” • Overall industry concern “Will such uncertainties result in regret investment?”

  3. Comparison of Predicted Ozone Compliance (99 Percentile) for 1990 Base Case Auto Oil I vs NECD (1-Hour Data for EU-15) Based on Detailed Results From NMI EMEP Simulations

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