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Macroeconomic Environment

U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook March 2011 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council. Macroeconomic Environment. U.S. Real GDP Growth. U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price. U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast. Civilian Unemployment Rate. U.S. Federal Budget Surplus (CBO Projection).

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Macroeconomic Environment

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  1. U.S. and World Cotton Economic OutlookMarch 2011Prepared by:Economic ServicesNational Cotton Council

  2. Macroeconomic Environment

  3. U.S. Real GDP Growth

  4. U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price

  5. U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast

  6. Civilian Unemployment Rate

  7. U.S. Federal Budget Surplus(CBO Projection)

  8. CBO Ag Baseline Spending

  9. Real GDP Growthin Selected Countries

  10. Euro(Currency per U.S. Dollar)

  11. Real Exchange Rate Index (Other Important Trade Partners, Source – Federal Reserve )

  12. Ag Prices Received Index

  13. U.S. Net Farm Income

  14. U.S. Cotton Supply

  15. December Cotton Futures Cents per Pound

  16. December Corn Futures Cents per Bushel

  17. November Soybean Futures Cents per Bushel

  18. 2011 U.S. Cotton Plantings Thousand Acres 2010 2011 % Actual Intended* Change Southeast 2,597 2,930 12.8 Mid-South 1,920 2,283 18.9 Southwest 5,886 6,585 11.9 West 366 465 27.0 ALL UPLAND10,76912,26313.9 ALL ELS 204 251 23.1 ALL COTTON 10,973 12,514 14.0 *2011 NCC Planting Intentions Survey

  19. 2011 U.S. Cotton Plantings Thousand Hectares 2010 2011 % Actual Intended* Change Southeast 1,051 1,186 12.8 Mid-South 777 924 18.9 Southwest 2,382 2,665 11.9 West 148 188 27.0 ALL UPLAND4,3584,96313.9 ALL ELS 83 102 23.1 ALL COTTON 4,441 5,064 14.0 *2011 NCC Planting Intentions Survey

  20. U.S. Cotton Production

  21. U.S. Cotton Supply

  22. U.S. Cotton Demand

  23. Net Domestic Fiber Consumption

  24. Cotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption

  25. Components of Retail Cotton Consumption

  26. U.S. Cotton Textile Imports

  27. U.S. Cotton Content in Textile Imports

  28. U.S. Trade With Mexico

  29. U.S. Trade with CBI

  30. U.S. Imports from China

  31. U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Calendar Year, Million Bales)

  32. U.S. Cotton Mill Use(Crop Year, Million Bales)

  33. U.S. Cotton Production & Use

  34. The World Market & U.S. Cotton Exports

  35. China Cotton Supply & Use

  36. World Cotton Production

  37. World Fiber Mill Use *PCI

  38. Fiber Prices

  39. World Cotton Mill Use

  40. Foreign Cotton Production & Use

  41. U.S. Cotton Exports

  42. World Cotton Ending Stocks

  43. Cotton Stocks/Use(World less China)

  44. U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Bales Beginning Stocks 6.34 2.95 Production 12.19 18.32 Imports 0.00 0.01 Total Supply 18.53 21.27 Mill Use 3.46 3.60 Exports 12.04 15.75 Total Offtake 15.50 19.35 Ending Stocks 2.95 1.90 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 19.0% 9.8% 2009/10e 2010/11p

  45. U.S. Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons Beginning Stocks 1.38 0.64 Production 2.66 3.99 Imports 0.00 0.00 Total Supply 4.04 4.63 Mill Use 0.75 0.78 Exports 2.62 3.43 Total Offtake 3.38 4.22 Ending Stocks 0.64 0.41 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 19.0% 9.8% 2009/10e 2010/11p

  46. World Supply and DemandMillion Bales 2009/10e 2010/11p Beginning Stocks 60.52 43.84 Production 101.34 114.95 Imports 35.98 38.59 Mill Use 118.52 116.61 Exports 35.55 38.58 Ending Stocks 43.84 42.33 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 37.0% 36.3%

  47. World Supply and DemandMillion Metric Tons 2009/10e 2010/11p Beginning Stocks 13.19 9.55 Production 22.08 25.04 Imports 7.84 8.41 Mill Use 25.82 25.41 Exports 7.75 8.41 Ending Stocks 9.55 9.22 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 37.0% 36.3%

  48. Producers Cooperatives Warehouses Manufacturers Ginners Cottonseed Merchants

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