Dealing with risks in modern institutions: the Hercules effort

1. Dealing with risks in modern institutions: the Hercules effort John Grin University of Amsterdam Dept. Political Science Policy Sciences, esp. System Innovation j.grin@uva.nl http://www.fmg.uva.nl/afdeling_pol http://www.fmg.uva.nl/perform First World Congress on Risk

2. 1. Risk society • ‘Duality of structure’ (Giddens) • Institutions • Knowledge infrastructure • Governance system • Market • Have emerged from and are shaping dominant social processes • Risk society: • (potential) side effects of simple modernization can no longer be neglected • Risks cannot be adequately handled by current institutions First World Congress on Risk

3. 2. Reflexive modernization • We are in need of a reflexive modernization, i.e. a coherent change in • Action • Structure (institutions) • Reflexive design: design for a strategy beyond existing institutions • But how to perform reflexive design within existing structures? First World Congress on Risk

4. 3. Modernization of agriculture • 1890-1940: product -improvement; land saving • Since 1945: product improvement; intensive production; labour saving • Number of pigs remained growing; pig farmers: • 275,000 (1950) > 110,000 (1975) > 20,000 (1995) • Much longer, more differentiated economic chains consisting of many specialized players • Specialized knowledge infrastructure • OVO-tryad • Iron triangle First World Congress on Risk

5. 4. The Hercules project • Started, as part of EET programme, in 1998, after Classical Swine Fever • Six firms, fundamental researchers, practice-oriented researchers • Core idea: • Convex manure belts, separating urine and faces so as to produce high quality fertilizer specialties through drying urine, using pig warmth + composting • Unlike traditional sewerage, Hercules could use much straw: animal welfare • Biomass composting + energy production • Integrated in P348 in 2000: stakeholder involvement First World Congress on Risk

6. 5. How the manure belts went out • Manure belts: Originally promoted as a key asset • Later, concerns accumulated: • Market not used to integral housing systems • Post-war market: specialized chain actors • Culturally embedded; Investment patterns • Could it be solved? • Manure cheaper; no viable market introduction strategy • Plant and animal production had become separate worlds (both agricultural practice and knowledge generation) • Costs too high (€ 0,05) • Historically contingent assumptions • Specialized, long chains: primary producers have limited power; multiplicative effect of primary product costs • Infections?!? • Knowledge falling short for a quick fix First World Congress on Risk

7. 6. Why it was so difficult to do better • As a EET programme, the project was very successful; the belts justifiably discarded • As an attempt at reflexive design, typical for the difficulties that may be encountered • Difficulties were discovered only late, since farmers were involved • only in P348 period • By practice oriented institutes First World Congress on Risk

8. 7. Lessons that may be learned • It appeared difficult to define visions: • Short time horizons • Lack of commitment • Methodical lesson: • Connect to reverse salients, presumotive anomalies a.s.o. • Be very explicit about reflexive nature of envisaged changes • Lesson on governance: • Government needs to be: • Resolved to stop current problems and create future • Strategically coherent mix of openness, consistency First World Congress on Risk