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Data Mining in Politics

Data Mining in Politics. Alexis A. Espinoza J. aaespinoza@wpi.edu CS548 Showcase 04/11/14.

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Data Mining in Politics

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  1. Data Mining in Politics Alexis A. Espinoza J. aaespinoza@wpi.edu CS548 Showcase 04/11/14

  2. http://poy.time.com/2012/12/19/obamas-data-team/ http://swampland.time.com/2012/11/07/inside-the-secret-world-of-quants-and-data-crunchers-who-helped-obama-win/ http://infospace.ischool.syr.edu/2013/01/24/data-mining-in-obamas-2012-victory/ http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~jakulin/Politics/ http://www.thenation.com/blog/174759/not-just-nsa-politicians-are-data-mining-american-electorate Resources - http://poy.time.com/2012/12/19/obamas-data-team/ - http://swampland.time.com/2012/11/07/inside-the-secret-world-of-quants-and-data-crunchers-who-helped-obama-win/ -http://infospace.ischool.syr.edu/2013/01/24/data-mining-in-obamas-2012-victory/ - http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~jakulin/Politics/ - http://www.thenation.com/blog/174759/not-just-nsa-politicians-are-data-mining-american-electorate - http://www.huffingtonpost.com/karthika-muthukumaraswamy/campaign-data_b_2042524.html

  3. 2012-Data miningfrom a politicalpoint of view • Itisnotjust data, Itis a mountain of politicalgold. • Less T.V. ads, leaflets, billboardsorYardsigns. • More complexhightechdata mining. • Substancial victorythanksto data-miningtechniquesemployed as opposedto a narrowone. http://www.thenation.com/blog/174759/not-just-nsa-politicians-are-data-mining-american-electorate

  4. 2012-Data miningfrom a politicalpoint of view • Danger: Notforterrorists, peoplecould be more easilymanipulated. • The overall political goal is to sway substantial portions of voters by speaking to what is in their hearts, what is closest to them. • Lots of money into developing new data-mining algorithms tomaximizethissentimentanalysisissuealongwith fundraising. http://www.thenation.com/blog/174759/not-just-nsa-politicians-are-data-mining-american-electorate

  5. Data mining in Obama’s 2012 Victory • Efectivemining of largedatabases of voterswas a major factor. • Remadetheprocess of targeting T.V. ads. - Lessphonecalls and doorknocks, more directmailing and social media. • Data crunching will be normal from now on in order for candidates to win elections. • http://infospace.ischool.syr.edu/2013/01/24/data-mining-in-obamas-2012-victory/

  6. How did they do it? • Largeamounts of data collectedfromdifferentsources(Facebook,Twitter, Reddit, OtherPrivateCorp) wereaccumulatedintoonebigrepository. • Combedthroughalltheinformationtodiscoverimportantpatterns and drawconclusionsaboutpotentialvoters. • 4 Metricsused: 1) Likelihoodthattheysupport Obama. 2) Likelihoodthattheyshow up at thepolls. 3) Likelihood of unmotivatedsupportersto vote. 4) Howpersuadablesomeonecould be by a phone conversation. http://infospace.ischool.syr.edu/2013/01/24/data-mining-in-obamas-2012-victory/

  7. Results in action Howtoraise 1 billiondollars?. -Data analysisfrom social media: Affectionforcontests, smalldinnersand celebrities. -West coastwomenage 40-49 liked George clooney and werelikelytohandout cash. Obama getstodinewith George Clooneyand alsogets 1 milliondollarsforhis campaign. - Similar demographicpatterns in theeastcoastliked Sarah Jessica Parker and werelikelytohandout cash too. Obama getsa chance toeat at Parker’s West VillageBrownstone. http://swampland.time.com/2012/11/07/inside-the-secret-world-of-quants-and-data-crunchers-who-helped-obama-win/

  8. Results in action Howtogettheattention of voters?. - Promotetargetedfacebookuserswithfriends in swing statestosendencouragingmessagesabouttheimportanceto vote. -1 in 5 peoplewhogotthemessageto vote responded affirmativelyjust becauseitcamefromsomeonetheyknew. -Potentialturnoutvoterswereonreddit. - T.V. Adswereboughtduringunconventionalprograms such as: Thewalkingdead, Sons of Anarchy, etc. -14% more efficientthanjustbuyingan ad nextto local newsprogramming. - Makingsuretheyweretalkingtopersuadablevoters. http://swampland.time.com/2012/11/07/inside-the-secret-world-of-quants-and-data-crunchers-who-helped-obama-win/

  9. The Technology behind it • Toomanydatabases. None of themtalkedtoeachother. • Open Sourcetechnologyvs PrivateTechnology. 1) Allowotherprogrammerstoreview, build, improve and makechanges as theywent. 2) Great Software Innovation as itwasan in-housecode. http://infospace.ischool.syr.edu/2013/01/24/data-mining-in-obamas-2012-victory/

  10. The future Aboutthe Data… -Unclearbutprobablywill be usedtoassistotherdemocrats in theircampaigns. - Unclearifitwouldworkwithothercandidates Aboutthetechnology and codegenerated… - Unclear, untilthisday, theyhavekeptit a secret(Unclearifthe software islicensed). Abouttheexpertswhoworkedonthecode… • Mostof themhavebeenlaid off, evensomewhoworkedfor more ten years http://infospace.ischool.syr.edu/2013/01/24/data-mining-in-obamas-2012-victory/

  11. Conclusions Aboutthenext 2016 elections….. and surelytherestto come Thepartywhoinvests more ontechnology, experts, and whounderstandsbesthowtodiscoverimportantknowledge in dynamicmassiveunreconciled data sourcesthat show a meaningfulrepresentation of thevoterstendencyforfavoringanoption, couldmake a difference in winningfutureelections.

  12. THANK YOU!!

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