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Klimawandel an der Küste – Veränderliche Sturmflutrisiken

Ortsausschuss Wilhelmsburg, 26 April 2006. Klimawandel an der Küste – Veränderliche Sturmflutrisiken. Hans von Storch Institute for Coastal Research GKSS Research Center Geesthacht, Germany. Küstenforschung GKSS, Geesthacht.

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Klimawandel an der Küste – Veränderliche Sturmflutrisiken

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  1. Ortsausschuss Wilhelmsburg, 26 April 2006 Klimawandel an der Küste – Veränderliche Sturmflutrisiken Hans von Storch Institute for Coastal Research GKSS Research Center Geesthacht, Germany

  2. KüstenforschungGKSS, Geesthacht • Beschreibung und Bewertung von gegenwärtigem Kima und Kimawandel im Küstenraum. • Ableitung von Szenarien des möglichen zukünftigen Klimawandels im Küstenraum. • Besonderes Augenmerk: Windbezogene Aspekte, also Windkraft, Sturmfluten und Seegang. • Vor allem: Nord- und Ostsee.

  3. Rekonstruktion vergangener und gegenwärtiger Zustände und deren Änderung • PKMnP Zukünfte = plausible, konsistente, mögliche aber nicht notwendigerweise wahrscheinliche Zukünfte = Szenarios.

  4. Vergangenheit

  5. Hamburg - Sturmfluten Differenz St. Pauli - Cuxhaven

  6. Sturmintensitätsindex Hasse Alexandersson, pers comm

  7. Hochwasserstatistik 1890-1995 Den Helder Jahresmittel Jahresmittel 99%, 95%, 90%, 50%

  8. Sturmstatistiken abgeleitet aus Barometermessungen – hier jährliche Häufigkeit von Luftdrücken weniger als 980 hPa in Lund (blau) und Stockholm (rot)

  9. Mögliche Zukünfte 2070-2100

  10. A1 A world of rapid economic growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficienttechnology. A very heterogeneous world with an emphasis on family values and local traditions. A world of “dematerialization” and introduction of clean technologies. A world with an emphasis on local solutions to economic and environmental sustainability. “ business as usual ” scenario (1992). A2 B1 B2 IS92a “SRES” ScenariosSRES = IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios IPCC, 2001

  11. Global scenarios of the air temperature change (in K) at the end of the 21st century, as determined with a global climate model forced with A2 and B2 emissions. Courtesy: Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut.

  12. GCM (CTL: 1961 - 1990) (A2: 2071 - 2100) series of RCM runs Run of the TRIM surge-model with a series of RCM forcing SLP & wind components dynamical downscaling of water level / North European shelf sea Woth, pers.comm.

  13. A2 - CTL: changes in 99 % - iles of wind speed (6 hourly, DJF): west wind sector selected(247.5 to 292.5 deg) HIRHAM RCAO REMO5 CLM

  14. Projections for the future / surge meteorological forcing: HIRHAM / RCA Differencesin inter-annual percentiles of surge/ A2 - CTL: RCA Differences in inter-annual percentiles of surge/ A2 - CTL: HIRHAM

  15. Konkretisierung St Pauli, 2030,2085

  16. The tidal change is due to coastal protection measures and modifications of the tributaries, and to the deepening of the shipping channel. These measure also had an effect on the heights of severe storm surges – estimates are 45 cm caused by measures of coastal defense and 15 cm by deepening the shipping channel (Haake, 2004: 27).

  17. Transfer-Funktion: Nordsee > St Pauli

  18. IPCC, 2001 SREs emission scenarios: Impact on global sea level

  19. Nur Effekt von Klimaveränderungen, nicht von Veränderungen der Morphologie der Tideelbe. Scenarios 2030, 2085

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