Technology and International Relations

1. Technology and International Relations • Technology has had profound impacts on warfare and thus broader International Politics • Some key concepts to keep in mind about changes in technology • Combat involved decision making under risk analysis • Implementation of Technology requires resources • Cost/benefit calculations involved • Issues of cognition are involved in integrating technology

2. More conceptual issues • Loss-of-strength gradient • E.g. Melee vs. ranged weapons • Offense vs. defense • Technology influences the ability of political units to sustain themselves • “Lanchester Battle Theory” • Assessment based on force structures • Ancient times – linear multipliers • Modern war – squared multipliers

3. A Brief History of Military Technology • Start with Pre-history • Run it to present • First weapons • Basic weapon types (or weapon systems) • Mêlée • Ranged • Armor • Fortifications • Transportation

4. Paleolithic - < 10,000 BCE • Rocks • Bones, sticks (Mêlée weapons for you gamers out there) • Fire hardened sticks • Basically Clubs • Ranged weapons • Darts • Slings • Bow, Arrow • Spears, javelin, atlatl

5. Paleolithic – Defense • Fire • the wall • smaller # of defenders versus attackers • wait prepared • this made agriculture "cost-effective“ • Lanchester theory • 3-1 ratio of offense to defense is classical estimate Tel es-Sultan in Jericho 1st Walled city ~9000BCE

6. Neolithic – Mêlée weapons(10,000 BCE – 3,000 BCE) • Axe • Mace • Knife • Polearms (quarterstaff, trident)

7. Neolithic – Ranged weapons • Blowgun • Throwing sticks, axes • Dart • Bola

8. Neolithic – Defense & Armor • Armor • Shield (13-14th century BC Egyptian) • Helm – 900BC Assyrian • Cataphract (~300BC) • Siege Weapons • Siege Tower

9. Bronze Age 3300 BCE – 1200 BCE • Swords – early ones in Turkey and China • Knives • The Wheel • Chariot – Sumerian,Egyptian

10. Greeks • The phalanx • Hoplites locked shields • Second & third ranks poked spears over • Allowed greater ratio of fighters • Military discipline • allowed for protection on the right • made attacks predictable • The ability to march and maneuver offset this.

11. Greek Weapons • Crossbow (but also China) – 5th Cent BCE • Siege weapons • Ballista • Catapult • Greave • Greek Fire

12. Roman Empire • Professional soldier/standing army • Ranks from Greeks (elected!) • Discipline • Consolidated from Warlord-like system • Mobility • Roads • Prohibited castles • increase in horsemanship • Chariots/heavy cavalry • The province of the wealthy – had to purchase equipment- and horse! • Stirrups invented by Chinese in Jin dynasty ~300AD • Widespread use in China by 477 AD (?) • Made it to Europe in 7th & 8th century

13. Roman Weapons • Static Weapons – Caltrops • Testudo • Pilum • Bends after throwing • Onager • Catapulta – tossed javelins

14. The Roman Empire in Decline • The Carolingian Empire used cavalry for logistics • Became significant political structure in the West as Rome declined • Charles Martel • Charlemagne • The Holy Roman Empire began to confront the steady introduction of the stirrup and more refined horsemanship • Allowed Castles • Protection of food & water supplies • height • The Rise of Fortress Europe • Which is, to say, Feudal Europe

15. Medieval • Siege weapons • Onager – sling with single rock • Mangonel – bucket-like catapult • Battering rams • Trebuchet • Petard – explosive for attacking walls

16. Medieval • Longbow • Effective in Crecy and Agincourt • Cannon Used scatteringly in Europe • 100 years war, Battle of Crecy, 1346 • Constantinople 1453 • The Great Turkish Bombard (Sahi) • The Pike square (Swiss invention) establishes the primacy of infantry over cavalry • The fort/castle evolves • Forts & castles abound during this period due to the loss of either central authority or ‘national security’

18. Castles • Motte-and-bailey – mounds with perimeter ditches, and wooden palisade • Keep – inner fortification • Gatehouses to protect weakest spot • Rounded walls to protect from cannon and square towers to protect from mining and battering rams • Star forts • It takes hundreds of years for these innovations to evolve

19. Castles & Cannon • With the advent of castles, Europe fragmented in 1000s of principalities • With cannon the trend reversed • Cannon sped the shift of the balance of power to the side with the most cash • Artillery is expensive to purchase, maintain and practice • The side with the most money wins

20. Seapower • The Galley had been the mainstay of naval weaponry for 2000 years (800BC to ~1400AD) • ramming and boarding the traditional maneuver • Cannon changed this. • Replaced by man-o-war in 14th-15th century • up to 40% of the firepower could be used at one time. • Sailing speed increased somewhat up until the adoption of steam propulsion and ironclads. – • This led to the need for supply bases (ports) which led to a further rash of colonization in the late 1800's

21. Seapower and trade • The caravel formed the first trading fleets (Prince Henry the Navigator) • Utilized more diverse sail arrangements (lateen as well as square sails) • Maps become substantially better in late 15th early 16th century

22. Seapower and wealth • Seapower aids in the development of regional economies, and eventually to the development of a global economy • Naval capacity allows for • greater comparative advantage • More direct transactions (fewer intermediaries) hence greater access to the developing markets

23. American Revolution • Musket – muzzle loader • The long land pattern musket – • Or “Brown Bess” • Tactics changed as the weapons became more available

24. The American Civil War • The trench • Railroad • Balloon • Ironclads • Breech loading rifle • Spenser repeating rifle

25. WWI • Machine gun (WWI)- defensive • Tank (WWI) • The Airplane (WWI) • Poison Gas/Chemical weapons • Submarine (Invented in Revolutionary War) • Radio • Automobile

26. WWII • Sub Machine gun – portable, offensive • The aircraft carrier • Radar • Paratroopers • Cryptography • (German Enigma machine) • Incendiary weapons (Dresden, Tokyo) • Rocket/missile (WWII) • Nuclear weapons (WWII)

27. The Cold War • ICBMs • Satellites • ABM

28. Korean War • Jet aircraft • Helicopter introduced • M.A.S.H • Replaced by Combat Support Hospitals

29. Vietnam • Helicopter • Computers • Napalm • Defoliants (Agent Orange) • Precision instruments • ThanhHoa Bridge – 1972 – first use

30. Persian Gulf/Iraq/Afghanistan • Stealth technology • Information battlefield • Cyber War • IED • ABM – Patriot missile • Unmanned aircraft • Predator

31. All of which leads us to the present • Star Wars • NMD • Cyber War • Weapon system senility • Weapon systems age • Or become vulnerable and are replaced

32. Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative - NMD) • Begun in previous administrations • Nike-Zeus • ABM • And announced and promoted under Reagan • SDI is a defensive concept • Concept is the implementation of a defensive shield to protect against ICBMs

33. Type of SDI systems • Energy Weapons • Lasers • Particle Beams • Space bases kinetic energy weapons • Rail guns • Interceptors • Ground based ABM systems • ERIS (Exo-atmospheric Reentry Interceptor Subsystem) • HEDI (High Endo-atmospheric Defense Interceptor)

34. Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative – NMD) • The basics of anti-ballistic missile defense • Time Altitude • Boost phase 300 - 50 secs 400km • Bus Phase 60 - 650 secs • Midcourse Phase • Reentry Phase

35. Kinetic energy weapons • KE weapons work based upon their velocity, and the velocity of the target • Thus a 1gr bullet traveling at 2000m/sec imparts 2000000gr/sec2 of energy • Thus a 1gr bullet traveling at 12000m/sec imparts 72000000gr/sec2 of energy • Damage is exponential with velocity

36. RailGun test Railgun US Navy 2008.jpg Photograph taken from a high-speed video camera during a record-setting firing of an electromagnetic railgun (EMRG) at Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren, Va., on January 31, 2008, firing a 3.2 kg projectile at 10.64MJ (megajoules) with a muzzle velocity of 2520 meters per second. The Office of Naval Research's EMRG program is part of the Department of the Navy's Science and Technology investments, focused on developing new technologies to support Navy and Marine Corps war fighting needs. This photograph is a frame taken from a high-speed video camera. U.S. Navy Photograph (Released) Video

37. Effort for Full SDI Shield • The magnitude of the support effort required • 1. # of satellites • since effective range of most systems is 1000km • satellites must be in low earth orbit. Therefore on station only 5% of the time 24000/1000 = 24 satellites for 100% coverage • If each satellite can hit 140 launch vehicles • (or 1400 deployed MIRVs) • this means 240 satellites • If each satellite requires 3 shuttle/lifter launches • @ $100M apiece…

38. SDI and Deterrence Stability • If Flexible response is a policy that exists under the umbrella of Mutual assured destruction, does a defensive “shield” destabilize deterrence?

39. NMD • Ground Based Interceptors (GBIs) • Battle Management, Command, Control, and Communications (BMC3), which includes: • Battle Management, Command, and Control (BMC2), and • In-Flight Interceptor Communications System (IFICS) • X-Band Radars (XBRs) • Upgraded Early Warning Radar (UEWR) • Defense Support Program satellites/Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS)

40. Accidental launch • Command & control in emerging nuclear arsenals is less secure? • Why should C&C be less capable in a newly emerging nuclear arsenal? • Suppose probability if 1/50 • Is risk a series model? • A parallel model?

41. Rogue states • Are rogue states deterrable? • It all becomes a question of resolve • Does NMD influence resolve? • Does the uncertainty of the effectiveness influence resolve?

42. NMD • The deployment of NMD is generally suggested by one of two scenarios • A rogue state • An accidental launch • Likely rogue states: • North Korea, Iran, (Iraq prior to 2003) • Syria?, Libya? • Aberrant Russian commander? • Spreadsheet for Utility Calculus

45. The Future of War • What are the key big ticket items in today’s military? • Tanks • Aircraft carriers • Bombers • Fighters • Increasingly larger portions of procurement costs of weapons systems are devoted to defense

46. Weapons systems senility • Smart weapons • Sensors • Increasing load/cost devoted to system defense • Cost of M1A1 is ~$4.3M • Cost of Hellfire is $50K-200K • A SADARM is $7000

47. Take Aircraft carriers • Where most effective… • Close support in coastal waters • Most vulnerable • Anti-ship missiles (e.g. Exocet) • Aircraft – 50% + used for carrier defense • Mines • Cost is ~$6B

48. What Next? • Increasing miniaturization • Increasing broadband information processing • Nanotechnology

49. Over the next century look for: • The End of the Gunboat • The End of the Carrier • The End of the Tank • The End of the Submarine • The End of the Manned Combat Aircraft • Sensors, stand-off capability, and troop mobility

50. The Evolution of Weapons Systems • Think in terms of • Adaptation • Survival of fittest • Environmental niches