Variables and Relationships

1. Variables and Relationships Understanding Catastrophe Causes, Consequences and Coordination David McEntire, PhD Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

2. Catastrophes • Take place when hazards interact with vulnerability • A hazard is an agent that may cause human harm • Examples include natural, technological and human-caused hazards Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

3. Hazards • Can be impressively severe • Arizona meteor crater • Great Sumatra earthquake • China earthquake • Hurricane Katrina • 1918-1919 Spanish Flu • Bhopal • 9/11 • Future threats Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

4. Rethinking Hazards • We have very little control over hazards • Focusing on hazards downplays the human element • Scholars suggest we reconsider the “naturalness” of disasters • We need to concentrate more on human activities that exacerbate disasters Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

5. The Role of People • Environmental Degradation • Tropical diseases may spread • Desertification may occur • Sea levels may rise • Abrupt ice age may result • Storms may increase in frequency and intensity Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

6. The Role of People (cont.) • Population Growth • May encourage people to move to hazard-prone areas • May force people to live in densely populated areas Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

7. The Role of People (cont.) • Resource Depletion • Watersheds and forests may be lost • Wetlands are in jeopardy • Water is becoming scarce • Food security is in question • Petroleum based economics may collapse Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

8. The Role of People (cont.) • Spread of Diseases • Antibiotics may result in mutations • Transportation may spread pathogens Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

9. The Role of People (cont.) • Changes in warfare • Terrorists continue to threaten and attack • They target civilians • Their weapons have evolved Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

10. Vulnerability • Is the dependent variable in catastrophes • Refers to proneness and limited capabilities • Has two schools of thought: social vulnerability and holistic vulnerability Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

11. Social Vulnerability • Social relationships (political and economic) are to blame for disasters • Law, employment, classes, industry, education, and networks have an impact • The vulnerable include the poor, minorities, women, children, the elderly, the disabled, prisoners, etc. Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

12. Holistic Vulnerability • Accepts premise of social vulnerability school • Recognizes other causes: choice of location, engineering, environmental degradation, warning failures, operational mistakes, evacuation decisions, planning, EOC management, apathy, urbanization, diet/exercise, technology, religious beliefs, education, coordination and other factors. Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

13. Group Project • Divide into groups (of 5 people each) • Answer the question “what are other potential causes of vulnerability and catastrophe?” • Invite a student from each group to report Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

14. Variable Interaction • Events are much more complex than initially understood • Some events are not sudden • A single hazard may trigger other hazards and interact in dynamic ways • Examples • Drought, hurricane, earthquake … Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

15. Catastrophes are Complicated • Mileti’s work on the physical, social and built environments • The East Bay Hills Fire Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

16. A Model of Catastrophes • External and internal hazards • Interaction with vulnerability • Production of disasters • Resulting increase in vulnerability • Model includes physical and social environments as well as liabilities and capabilities Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

17. Your Model? • Develop your own model of catastrophes • Draw your model • Discuss it in 2-3 pages and explain its central features Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

18. Catastrophes and Society • Are non-routine social problems • They are unusual • They create new and unforeseen challenges • Examples • Destroyed homes, no water or utilities … Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

19. Impact • Medical care becomes problematic • Sheltering is difficult • Public information is nearly impossible • Clean up and debris removal is almost insurmountable • Rebuilding is a lengthy process • Outside involvement is required Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

20. Power Point Presentation • Select one catastrophe • Identify causes • Discuss primary, secondary and tertiary consequences • Should last no more than 10 minutes Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

21. Intervention Points • Mitigation • Serious and thorough risk assessments • Environmental protection • Construction standards • Regulations • Health status and medical capacity • Terrorism prevention Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

22. Intervention Points (cont.) • Preparedness • All pre-disaster functions (community education, training, grant management, exercises) • All post-disaster functions (particularly evacuation, sheltering, communications and resource management) Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

23. Intervention Points (cont.) • Response • Vulnerable populations • Damage and impact assessments • Flexible deployment of rescue personnel • Inter-state and international mutual aid compacts • Coordination Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

24. Intervention Points (cont.) • Recovery • Well-crafted plans • Debris management • Disaster assistance programs • Rebuilding Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

25. Writing Assignment • 8-10 page paper • Addressing a single intervention point in detail • Focusing on catastrophes • Including lessons learned • Illustrating difference to disasters • Must provide concrete recommendations Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

26. Coordination Models • Bureaucratic Model • Centralized • Top down • Rigid • Self-serving individuals Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

27. Coordination Models (cont.) • Problem Solving Model • Decentralized • Bottom-up • Flexible • Altruistic individuals Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

28. Strengths and Implications • The Bureaucratic Model • The Problem Solving Model • The need for inclusion and integration Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

29. Class Activity • Guest speakers • Fire fighter • Emergency manager • Questions about coordination models Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course

30. Conclusion • Catastrophes result from hazards and vulnerability • Many variables are involved and in complicated ways • Impacts of catastrophes are significant • Special measures are required • Two models can help us manage catastrophes Session 3: Catastrophe Readiness and Response Course