Variables and Relationships

1. Variables and Relationships Understanding Catastrophe Causes, Consequences and Coordination

2. Catastrophes Take place when hazards interact with vulnerability A hazard is an agent that may cause human harm Examples include natural, technological and man-made hazards

3. Hazards • Can be impressively severe • Arizona meteor crater • Great Sumatra earthquake • China earthquake • Hurricane Katrina • 1918-1919 Spanish Flu • Bhopal • 9/11 • Future threats

4. Rethinking Hazards We have very little control over hazards Focusing on hazards downplays the human element Scholars suggest we reconsider the “naturalness” of disasters We need to concentrate more on human activities that exacerbate disasters

5. The Role of People • Environmental Degradation • Tropical diseases may spread • Desertification may occur • Sea levels may rise • Abrupt ice age may result • Storms may increase in frequency and intensity

6. The Role of People (cont.) • Population Growth • May encourage people to move to hazard-prone areas • May force people to live in densely populated areas

7. The Role of People (cont.) • Resource Depletion • Watersheds and forests may be lost • Wetlands are in jeopardy • Water is becoming scarce • Food security is in question • Petroleum based economics may collapse

8. The Role of People (cont.) • Spread of Diseases • Antibiotics may result in mutations • Transportation may spread pathogens

9. The Role of People (cont.) • Changes in warfare • Terrorists continue to threaten and attack • They target civilians • Weapons have evolved

10. Vulnerability Is the dependent variable in catastrophes Refers to proneness and limited capabilities Has two schools of thought: social vulnerability and holistic vulnerability

11. Social Vulnerability Social relationships (political and economic) are to blame for disasters Law, employment, classes, industry, education, and networks have an impact The vulnerable include the poor, minorities, women, children, the elderly, the disabled, prisoners, etc.

12. Holistic Vulnerability Accepts premise of social vulnerability school Recognizes other causes: choice of location, engineering, degradation, warning systems, operational mistakes, evacuation decisions, planning, EOC management, apathy, urbanization, diet/exercise, technology, religious beliefs, education, coordination and other factors have an impact

13. Group Project Divide into groups (of 5 people each) Answer the question “what are other potential causes of vulnerability and catastrophe?” Invite a student from each group to report

14. Variable Interaction The equation H+V=C is much too simple Some events are not sudden A single hazard may trigger other hazards and interact in dynamic ways Examples

15. Catastrophes are Complicated Mileti’s work on the physical, social and built environments The East Bay Hills Fire

16. A Model of Catastrophes External and internal hazards Interaction with vulnerability Production of disasters Disasters result in increased vulnerability Model includes physical and social environments as well as liabilities and capabilities

17. Your Model? Develop your own model of catastrophes Draw your model Discuss it in 2-3 pages and explain its central features

18. Catastrophes and Society Are non-routine social problems They are unusual They create new and unforeseen challenges Examples

19. Impact Medical care becomes problematic Sheltering is difficult Public information is nearly impossible Clean up and debris removal is almost insurmountable Rebuilding is a lengthy process Outside involvement is required

20. Power Point Presentation Select one catastrophe Identify causes Discuss primary, secondary and tertiary consequences Should last no more than 10 minutes

21. Intervention Points • Mitigation • Serious and thorough risk assessments • Environmental protection • Construction standards • Regulations • Health status and medical capacity • Terrorism prevention

22. Intervention Points (cont.) • Preparedness • All pre-disaster functions (community education, training, grant management, exercises) • All post-disaster functions (particularly evacuation, sheltering, communications and resource management)

23. Intervention Points (cont.) • Response • Vulnerable populations • Damage and impact assessments • Flexible deployment of rescue personnel • Inter-state and international mutual aid compacts • Coordination

24. Intervention Points (cont.) • Recovery • Well-crafted plans • Debris management • Disaster assistance programs • Rebuilding

25. Writing Assignment 8-10 page paper Addressing a single intervention point in detail Focusing on catastrophes Including lessons learned Illustrating difference to disasters Must provide concrete recommendations

26. Coordination Models • Bureaucratic Model • Centralized • Top down • Rigid • Self-serving individuals

27. Coordination Models (cont.) • Problem Solving Model • Decentralized • Bottom-up • Flexible • Altruistic individuals

28. Strengths and Implications The Bureaucratic Model The Problem Solving Model The need for inclusion and integration

29. Class Activity • Guest speakers • Fire fighter • Emergency manager • Questions about coordination models

30. Conclusion Catastrophes result from hazards and vulnerability Many variables are involved and in complicated ways Impacts of catastrophes are significant Special measures are required Two models can help us manage catastrophes