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Second thoughts on globalisation

Second thoughts on globalisation. Mark Thirlwell 4 April 2007. Globalisation: good for growth . . . Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2006 database. Globalisation: good for growth . . . Trend growth has risen by about one percentage point (3.4% - 4.4%) between 1980 and 2007.

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Second thoughts on globalisation

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  1. Second thoughts on globalisation Mark Thirlwell4 April 2007

  2. Globalisation: good for growth . . . Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2006 database

  3. Globalisation: good for growth . . . Trend growth has risen by about one percentage point (3.4% - 4.4%) between 1980 and 2007 Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2006 database

  4. . . . good for inflation . . . Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2006 database

  5. . . . good for inflation . . . The ‘Great Moderation’ in inflation Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2006 database

  6. . . . and good for China and India Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2006 database

  7. . . . and good for China and India By 2005 China and India accounted for about 21% of world GDP at PPP rates Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2006 database

  8. . . . and good for China and India On the same basis, China was the world’s 2nd largest economy, and India in 4th place Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2006 database

  9. Six rich country worries • Scared by success • Spooked by security • Ill at east with inequality • Troubled by trade • Rattled by resource security • Exercised by the environment

  10. Remaking the world economy Sources: Angus Maddison (2006)

  11. Remaking the world economy Before the start of C19th globalisation, China and India may have accounted for half of world GDP Sources: Angus Maddison (2006)

  12. Remaking the world economy Before the start of C19th globalisation, China and India may have accounted for half of world GDP On fairly conservative assumptions, share back up to one third by 2030 Sources: Angus Maddison (2006)

  13. “Economists argue that in economic competition what counts are absolute not relative gains; to economists this is a self-evident truth. It is however, self-evident to almost no one but economists . . . they are blind to the fact that economic activity is a source of power as well as well-being. It is, indeed, probably the most important source of power, and . . . will be increasingly important in determining the primacy and subordination of states.” “Why international primacy matters” Samuel Huntington (1993)

  14. Good for global inequality . . . Sources: Bourguignon and Morrison (2002) and Sala-i-Martin (2006)

  15. Good for global inequality . . . Global inequality may have peaked around 1980 Sources: Bourguignon and Morrison (2002) and Sala-i-Martin (2006)

  16. . . . but not for national inequality Sources: US Census Bureau

  17. . . . but not for national inequality 2005 Gini index highest yet recorded Sources: US Census Bureau

  18. Does labour lose out? Sources: World Bank and US Bureau of Labor Statistics

  19. Does labour lose out? In 2005, China accounted for about 25½ % of the potential global labour force, and India another 14½% Sources: World Bank and US Bureau of Labor Statistics

  20. Reshaping world trade Sources: WTO International trade statistics

  21. Reshaping world trade China now the world’s third largest trading nation, accounting for 7% of exports, 6% of imports Sources: WTO International trade statistics

  22. Reshaping world trade India’s share of ‘other’ commercial services exports up from 0.5% in 1996 to almost 4% by 2005 Sources: WTO International trade statistics

  23. US-China trade tensions Sources: US Department of Commerce

  24. US-China trade tensions 2006 bilateral deficit of US$232.5 billion Sources: US Department of Commerce

  25. Resource hunger Sources: BP Handbook of Energy Statistics 2006, Various

  26. Resource hunger China is now the world’s largest consumer of the major metals and the second largest consumer of energy Sources: BP Handbook of Energy Statistics 2006, Various

  27. Resource hunger China is now the world’s largest consumer of the major metals and the second largest consumer of energy More than 30% of growth in oil consumption; more than 45% growth in aluminium, copper and steel consumption; three-quarters of coal, tin and nickel consumption growth Sources: BP Handbook of Energy Statistics 2006, Various

  28. Environmental strains Sources: EIA International Energy Outlook

  29. Environmental strains Share of CO2 emissions in 2004: 21.5%. But share of cumulative emissions much lower (less than 10%) Sources: EIA International Energy Outlook

  30. Six developments to track • Renewal of TPA in the US . . . • . . . and the future of the Doha Round • May’s SED in Washington • China’s new economic model? • IMF (quota) reform • ‘Greening’ globalisation

  31. Second thoughts on globalisation Mark Thirlwell4 April 2007

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