SOFT POWER & its implications on Iran

1. SOFT POWER&its implications on Iran Abbas Maleki Institute for North America & European Studies Tehran University May 15, 2007

2. What is more Attractive? • Seduction is always more effective than coercion • In a marriage, power does not necessarily reside with the larger partner, but in mysterious chemistry of attraction • Many values like democracy, human rights, and individual opportunities are deeply seductive

3. What is Power? • Having the capabilities to affect the behavior of others to make those things happen. • Ability to influence the behaviors of others to get the outcomes one wants. • Ways: -Coerce them with threats -Induce them with payments -Attract & co-opt them to want what you want

4. Power definition by Politicians • Possession of capabilities or resources that can influence outcomes • This definition makes power appear more concrete, measurable, & predictable • A country is powerful if it has -large population -large territory -extensive natural resources -economic strengths -military force -social stability

5. Power resources are not Fungible as money • What wins in one game may not help at all in another • Having power resources does not guarantee you will always get the outcome you want: -US was more powerful than Vietnam, but lost war -America was the only superpower in 2001, but failed to prevent 9/11

6. Power resources cannot be judged without knowing the context • Before you judge who is holding the high cards, you need to understand what game you are playing and how the value of the cards may be changing. • International Order -Military: Unipolar, US -Economic: Multipolar, US, EU, Japan, WTO -Transnational: Chaotic system: Terrorism, International Crime, Climate Change, Infectious Disease

7. What is Change? • Profound change means organizational change that combines “inner” shifts in people’s values , aspirations and behaviors with “outer” shifts in processes, strategies, practices and systems.

8. Organizational change • The process by which organizations move from their present state to some desired future state to increase their effectiveness

9. Targets of Change • Four different levels • Human resources • Functional resources • Technological capabilities • Organizational capabilities

10. Targets of Change • Four different levels • Human resources • Functional resources • Technological capabilities • Organizational capabilities

11. Forces for Change • Demographic and social forces: changes in the composition of the workforce and the increasing diversity of employees has presented many challenges for organizations • Increased need to manage diversity • Ethical forces: important for an organization to take steps to promote ethical behavior • Creation of ethics officer position • Encourage employees to report unethical behaviors

12. Lewin’s Theory

13. Evolutionary and Revolutionary Change in Organizations • Evolutionary change: change that is gradual, incremental, and specifically focused • Revolutionary change: change that is sudden, drastic, and organization-wide

14. What is Soft Power? • Ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments. • It arises from attractiveness of a country’s -Culture -Political Ideals -Policies

15. What is Soft Power (2) Joseph Nye of Kennedy School of Government: • “A country’s soft power can come from three resources: -Its culture (in places where it is attractive to others), -Its political values (when it lives up to them at home and abroad), and -Its foreign policies (when they are seen as legitimate and having moral authority).

16. Soft Power Categories • When you can get others to admire your ideals and to want what you want, you do not have to spend as much on sticks and carrots to move them in your direction. • Government actions and policies should reinforce rather than undercut these private sources of soft power.

17. Smart Power • A proper combination of Hard and Soft Powers -Hard Power, Carrot and Sticks, Influence -Soft Power, Persuasion, attraction • Soft Power seems like invisible hand of Adam Smith in free market of ideas

18. US Soft Power • US Soft Power has been produced by -Hollywood -Harvard -Microsoft -Michael Jordan • Much of the US' soft power is rapidly waning

19. US Soft Power’s Cases • Impact of Franklin Roosevelt's Four Freedom at the end of World War II • Young people behind the Iron Curtain listening to news on RFE • Chinese students symbolizing their protests in Tiananmen Square by creating a replica of the Statue of Liberty • Newly liberated Afghans in 2001 asking for a copy of the Bill of Rights • Young Iranians surreptitiously watching banned American videos and satellite television broadcasts in the privacy of their homes.

20. America’s Vulnerabilities Iraq • Hard Power is so strong: It removed a tyrant in two weeks • But it did not resolve terrorism • Dramatic decline in the popularity of US even in European countries • It raised US hatred in Islamic countries from Morocco to Indonesia

21. What is Scenario? -Engage in systematic conjecture -Human beings are constantly writing scenarios, interpreting signals in the environment and reframing them into meaningful images and trajectories in to the future.

22. The relations between possible, probable and desired future

23. What is not Scenario? • Scenario is not a forecast, neither a vision • It does not seek numerical precision. It usually provides a more qualitative and contextual description of how the present will evolve in to the future. • It is not assured. Scenario analysis usually tries to identify a set of possible future, each of whose occurrence is plausible

24. Scenarios versus Forecasts

25. Crude Oil Rigs in US, (Prediction)

26. Crude Oil Rigs in US, (Reality)

27. Future is not continuation of the past necessarily

29. Four Scenarios of the world in 2020 • Davos World: Economic globalization continues but with a more Asian face • Pax Americana: US continues to shape the global order • New Caliphate: Islamic religious identity challenges the dominance of western norms • Cycle of Fear: Non-state forces create shocks to security that produce an Orwellian society National Intelligence Council Finantial Times, Feb. 15, 2007

30. Three factors will shape political outcome I-Chinese power and how it is used • Despite its remarkable growth, China's income per capita is only a twenty-fifth of that of the US • While it is possible that China's total economy could equal that of the US in 30 years or so, American per capita income is likely still to be four times that of China

31. Three factors will shape political outcome II-Political Islam and how it develops • The struggle against extreme Islamist terrorism is not a "clash of civilizations" but a civil war within Islam • A radical minority is using violence to impose a simplified and ideological version on a mainstream with more diverse views • While the largest number of Muslims live in Asia, they are influenced by the heart of this struggle in the Middle East

32. Three factors will shape political outcome III-American power and how it is used • US will remain the most powerful country in 2020, but the paradox is she will not be able to protect its citizens • US's military might is not adequate to deal with threats such -global pandemics -climate change -terrorism -international crime • While hard military power will remain crucial for deterrence, alliances and stability, it would undercut the soft power • US policies have created more new terrorists than they have destroyed

33. Three factors will shape political outcome • If these three forces move in a favorable direction, the most likely world will be a relatively optimistic combination of globalization with a more Asian face plus Pax Americana • Events could derail this possible future: -political instability in China that creates a prolonged slump -violence and a more aggressive foreign policy -Conflict or revolutions in Persian Gulf -Pandemic that produces widespread deaths -Economic dislocation and closure of borders -Acts of terrorism with weapons of mass destruction -Climate change that occurs more quickly than expected -Collapse of the Antarctic ice shelf

34. Social Change Strength 70% are under age 30 Public ethics Attitudes Communication Opportunities Anxious to knowledge Democratization process Civil Society Opening the country Weaknesses Lack of accountability Discretion among generations Dissatisfaction to daily life Challenges Gap Increase between expectations and reality Religious and secular values’ inconsistency

35. Defense Policy Strength 1 million troops Dual system of military forces (Army and Revolutionary Guard) Self-sufficient in ordinary weapons Opportunities Collapse of two major threats SCO Cooperation with third world countries Weaknesses Lack of new sophisticated armaments Skilled human shortage Threats Attack to Iran US military presence in the region

36. Economy Strength 70 m population Oil & Gas Other Minerals Transit Routes Opportunities Neighbors markets Asian energy thirsty Globalization Islamic developed country Weaknesses High Cash High Inflation Unemployment Lack of FDI Challenges US Sanctions, UN!! Emerging new rivals Far distance to modernization

37. Foreign Policy Strength Geopolitics 15 Neighbors Political System Decision Making Opportunities Asian Identity Regional appearance International organizations Dialogue among Civilizations Weaknesses Delay in crafting strategies Changes of administration Duality in HNSC and FM Challenges US presence in neighboring countries Disintegration of neighboring countries Regional extremism

38. What would be Iran after 20 Years? Iran’s 20-Year Perspective Document Says: • The first country in the region at economic, scientific and technology levels • line of thinking, i.e. the prioritization of becoming an “economic and technological power” over other policy areas, is very evident in Iran’s 20-Year Perspective Document

39. Iran’s Soft Power 1-Culture: -Persian Language -Iranian Traditions -Islamic Shiite 2-Political Values -Democracy -Elections -Women’s rights -Civil society 3-Foreign Policies -Legitimacy -Prestige -Public Relations

40. Bibliography • Nye, Jr. Joseph S.; Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics; New York: Public Affairs, 2004. • Nye, Jr. Joseph S.; “The Long View on China, Political Islam and American Power”, financial Times, Feb. 15, 2007. • Nye, Jr. Joseph S.; “Russia’s Fragile Power”, Today’s Zaman, Feb.. 16, 2007. • Chaulia, Sreeram: “India’s soft power: Lessons from Nehru”; RXPNews, Mar 12, 2007.

41. Thank you maleki@caspianstudies.com