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What is “burden”?. DALY = YLL (death) + YLD (disability) For TB ~ 90% DALYs due to death death is why TB is among top 10 in “burden” league table. LOSS OF HEALTHY LIFE DUE TO TB. Decline in TB, Alaska 1950-73. 6. cases 13%/yr. 5. t. = 5 yr. 1/2. 4. 3.
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What is “burden”? • DALY = YLL (death) + YLD (disability) • For TB ~ 90% DALYs due to death • death is why TB is among top 10 in “burden” league table
Decline in TB, Alaska 1950-73 6 cases 13%/yr 5 t = 5 yr 1/2 4 3 Incidence or death rate/10K/year 2 1 0 deaths 30%/yr -1 t = 2.3 yr 1/2 -2 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 source: Grzybowski Tubercle 1976
Impact of TB control on cases and deaths Netherlands 1950-94 6 5 incidence 7.0%/yr 4 CFR 15% 3 2 1 0 CFR 1.5% -1 deaths 12.3%/yr -2 -3 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 year
TB cases and deathsUruguay, 1945-1995 Cases Deaths GTB, 1997
Trends in TB death registrations 1200 Former Soviet Union Central Europe 1000 Industrialized 800 Latin America Geometric mean number of deaths 600 400 200 0 1985 1990 1995 2000
Impact of improved TB control: deaths reduced in Peru 20000 other defaulted DOTS 1991 15000 untreated Estimated number of deaths 10000 5000 0 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99