Under the hood of a 2006-2013 slow down in population growth of Auckland

1. Under the hood of a 2006-2013 slow down in population growth of Auckland James Newell, MERA (Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) www.mera.co.nz Quality Hotel Parnell, Auckland 21st-May 2014

2. Outline • Auckland Council level • Under the hood of 2006-2013 population changes • Auckland Local Boards and Case Studies • Comparing net change 2006-2013 • Overall - reflecting this audience – a focus on child age groups

3. Big Picture – Auckland Council area .. • Contributors to Population change in Auckland • Overview • Births spike … • Net Migration rates by age • Increase in Households (occupied dwellings) lags population growth – small increase in mean household size • Indicators of emerging trends in population .. • New Residential Building permits.. • International immigration and emigration

4. Population AccountsOverviewLocal Authorities of the Auckland Council Region (Based on raw uncorrected census counts, Draft only)

5. Auckland Council Area : Population Change by Inter-censalPeriod

6. Reconciling national population accounts and net international PLT flows over intercensal periods ..

7. NZ Pop Accounts compared with Net PLT External Migration Flows ..

8. Are these differences between Net PLT Migr and est net migration age specific?

9. Possible reasons for these differences • A change in the extent of undercount between 2006 and 2013? • Switch between stated international movement intentions and actual

10. Is there an increase in the undercount from 2006 to 2013? Comparing the census and roll counts for 2001, 2006 and 2013 …

11. Auckland - Census Population counts by age of child

12. Auckland – July roll counts by age of child

13. Undercount? How do School rolls and census counts compare? School rolls % higher or lower than census count

14. Under the hood –Auckland population growth rates, drivers and composition – overview

15. Net Changes in Population by Age Group 2006-2013

16. Auckland Population by age group 2001-2013 (Census)

17. Annual Population Growth rate comparisons ..

18. Auckland Live Births – December Years

19. Estimated Auckland net migration by age – from population accounts

20. Estimated % Per Annum Net Migration Rate by AgeAuckland Council : Inter-censal Periods 1991 to 2013

21. Estimated net migration gain by 5 yr age groupAuckland Council : Inter-censal Periods 1991 to 2013

22. Estimated net migration gain Children and young adults by 5 yr age groupAuckland Council : Inter-censal Periods 1991 to 2013

23. Changes in Auckland household types and size?

24. Large increase in multi-family households 2006-2013 Note : 8.1% increase in households vs 8.6% incr in population – increase in mean hh size

25. Looking forward - Auckland population projections .. and indicators of recent trends post census ..

26. Looking forward - projected Auckland Population Change 2013 to 2031..? Note – 2006/11 period for projections but used 2006/13 for census counts Source – Statistics NZ 2012 Subnational Population projections and population census counts

27. Auckland Population 1981 to 2031..?

28. Number of residential building consents by year to June 2013

29. Auckland permanent long term migration flows – (immigration and emigration …)

30. 12 Mth Moving Average – Auckland Permanent Long Term Flows – to March 2014

31. Auckland Permanent Long Term Flows to March 2014 – under 5’s

32. Auckland Permanent Long Term Flows to March 2014 – 5-9 yr olds

33. Auckland 2013 Local Boards View

34. Some High Growth Boards

35. Long Term Trends for selected Local Boards

36. Long Term Trends under 5’s for selected Local Boards

37. Long Term Trends 5-9’s for selected Local Boards

38. Long Term Trends 10-14’s for selected Local Boards

39. Population distribution / redistribution within Auckland • Population density changes … what is driving them / why?

40. % Change in Population 2006 - 2013

41. Change in Population Density : 2006-2013persons per sq km (reds incr – blues decrease..)

42. Compare with changes in Population Density : 2001-2006persons per sqkm (reds incr – blues decrease..)

43. Reasons for population density changes ..? • Increase in population density .. • Increase in number of dwellings or in occupancy rates of dwellings • Increase in mean household size - psns per dwelling • Increase in dwelling density • Decrease in population density .. • Decrease in number of dwellings (rezone non-residential) or in occupancy rates of dwellings (housing corp policies, seasonal / cyclical residence) • Decrease in mean household size - psns per occ dwelling • Decrease in dwelling density

44. Why a decrease in population density in some areas ..? e.g. South Auckland Case Study :Otara – Papatoetoe Local Board Area

45. Some insights into ethnic compositional changes from school enrolment data 1998 – 2013(a repeat of some material from the March 2014 seminar..)

46. Board Selected % Ethnic Composition – School Rolls 2013

47. Board % Asian Composition – School Rolls 2013

48. Change in Auckland Total School Roll by Ethnicity (1)

49. Change in Auckland Total School Roll by Ethnicity (2) - Pasifika

50. Change in Auckland Total School Roll by Ethnicity (3) - Asian