Back To Basics: A Return to the Essentials of Urban Growth

1. Back To Basics: A Return to the Essentials of Urban Growth Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Presidential Fellow, Chapman University Confederation of Danish Industries Copenhagen, April 2, 2008

2. “Every city is in a natural state of war with every other, not indeed proclaimed by heralds, but everlasting.” Competition Between Cities and Regions is a Fact of Life -- and has been for Over two millennia Plato, 4th Century BC

3. Rise and Fall of Cities “Human prosperity does not abide long in one place” Herodotus Greek Historian 5th Century BC

4. Key Factors for Decline • Inability to absorb newcomers • Lack of upward mobility • Inattention to basic infrastructure • Lack of shared common culture • Decline of Family

5. Families as History’s Bedrock “…the good news from the recovered history of the family: This smallest and seemingly most fragile of institutions is proving itself to be mankind’s bedrock as well as its fault line .” --- historian Steven Ozment

6. The Cosmopolitan City The miracle of toleration was to be found, “wherever the community of trade convened.” French historian Fernand Braudel on Venice, Antwerp, Amsterdam and London in the early Modern Period

7. The Expansion to Outsider Groups “the honor that knowledge will give us will be entirely ours, and it will not be taken from us by the thief’s skill…or by the passage of time.” Louise Labé 16th Century French Author

8. “there is no sin but ignorance” Christopher Marlowe,1576

9. New Attitudes and Knowledge Shift the Global Balance of Power In 1601, Britain’s revenues were less than a tenth of Mogul India’s; within two hundred years, the relationship was totally reversed in England’s favor by a similar margin

10. “Attacks on people’s property remove the incentive to acquire and gain property” Ibn Khaldun14th Century Arab historian

11. The Key to the first Great City “The Greeks boasted of their ‘useless’ art and Egypt’s legacy lay in idle pyramids, but what were these compared to the fourteen aqueducts that brought water to Rome?” A Roman Historian

12. Arts and Culture: A Look Back in Time Great Cultural Centers generally rest upon commercial success Venice, Florence, Amsterdam, London, New York, Los Angeles all became cultural centers after developing an expanding economy and strong middle class Patrons of arts, not the public, key to development of cultural institutions from Macenas to the Medici, Carnegie and the Rockefellers of the 20th Century to today’s multi-billionaires

13. America’s Talent: Laying Foundation of the Future National Road proposed by Jefferson (1806) Period of Canal Building (1800-1850) Construction of Railroads (1840-1900) Carnegie Libraries Interstate Highways (1930-1970) Airports, Telecommunications

14. 1880-1920 Progressive Reform Reformers in Europe, US and other industrial countries develop new sanitation systems Development of parks in cities in Europe, the US and Australia Commuter trains spur development of suburbs to bring people to the countryside

15. Depression Era: Works Progress Administration Majority of Expenditures into “hard” infrastructure such as roads, bridges, airports, schools, electrification Arts less than 7% of budget Employed 3 million workers with roughly 10 million dependents Employed 175,000 engineers

16. US : Forgetting the Basics Average Public Capital Value and U.S. Population Growth 70% 300,000,000 60% 250,000,000 50% 200,000,000 40% 150,000,000 30% 100,000,000 20% Percent "Core Infrastructure" Capital Value Growth (scale left) 50,000,000 10% US Population (scale right) 0% 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 1999 Sources: Demographia (2006) and Calvert-Henderson (2006)

17. Class Inequality: One result of fading infrastructure spending The top decile income share, 1917 - 2002

18. Identifying Key Trends • No simple formula and there are almost always exceptions to every rule • Aging Population threatens Europe, US less so • Cities Moving away from central mission • Need to focus on sustainable economics and family friendly environment to maintain middle class • Sustainable culture must be based on liberal principles and economic opportunity

19. Long Term Demographics—The Recent Past Annual Average Population Growth, 1997-2007 Source: U.S. Census International Database

20. Long Term Demographics—The Advanced Countries Projected Population Growth, 2007-2050 Source: U.S. Census International Database

21. Getting Older Slower Population Over 65 Source: U.S. Census International Database

22. Roots of Current Urban Problems • Difficult city administration forces businesses to periphery • Inattention to basic urban infrastructure • Lack of focus on expanding middle class

23. The Ephemeral City: The Future of the Core? “a bazaar, a great gallery of shops and places of concourse and rendezvous.” H.G. Wells — description of urban centers in the future

24. Thoughts on Ephemeral Cities: A Model for Europe’s cities? “Poor but sexy." Mayor Klaus Wowereit on Berlin “A cross between Carmel and Calcutta” Kevin Starr on San Francisco

25. Cities without Children Percent Less than 18 Years, Select Major U.S. Cities

27. U.S. Population in Urban, Suburban, & Rural Areas Millions 1950-1999 People (millions)

28. Growth: City vs. Suburb US Metropolitan & Central City Population: 2000-2005 Demographia

29. In Most advanced countries, the Single Family Home Has Predominated as “The Universal Aspiration” —Los Angeles urbanist Edgardo Contini “The suburban house is the idealization of every immigrant’s dream--- the vassal’s dream of his own castle. Europeans who come here are delighted by our suburbs. Not to live in an apartment! It is a universal aspiration to own your own home.”

30. Where Americans Would Like To Live Fannie Mae, 1998

31. Declustering: A Global Perspective Percentage Change in Population 1965 - 2000 Source: Demographia

32. Economic Declustering: Jobs Head out Percentage of Metropolitan area employment Source: Edward Glaeser, Matthew Kahn and Chenghuan Chu, “Job Sprawl: Employment in US Metropolitan Areas”, Brookings Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy, May 2001

33. The Archipelago of Villages: Towards “Smart Sprawl” • Housing near jobs • Emphasis on families • Strong role for village shopping streets and markets • Provision of open space around the village core and housing estates- • Solving the problem of “sprawl” within the Sprawl

34. The British Vision of Urbanity:The Garden City “Town and country must be marriedand out of this joyous union will spring a new hope, a new life, a new civilization.” Ebenezer Howard

35. The Big Trend: Digital Impact Percent change by mode, journey to work 1980-2000 Source: US Decennial Census

36. Total Annual Greenhouse Emissions By Dwelling Type Tonnes CO2/Person/Year Tonnes CO2/Dwelling/Year Institute of Public Affairs

37. What We Lost: the Pre-industrial City “The biggest jolt the Industrial Revolution administered to the Western family was the progressive removal of work from the home.” — Dr. Peter N. Stearns, historian

38. Global Declustering:Telecommunications Changes Everything Monthly Cost of leasing a line from Bangalore to Los Angeles source:Oncept,Inc.

39. Technology Shifts the Locational Paradigm • New technology could telescope the distance between communities • Corporate functions can be more efficiently dispersed to economies with specific expertise • Technology turns everyplace into a potential global hub

40. “‘Town’ and ‘city’ will be in truth, terms as obsolete as ‘mail coach.’” -H.G. Wells, Anticipations of the Mechanical & Scientific Progress Upon Human Life and Thought (1902)

41. Smaller cities and towns already plug into dispersed digital networks “You look ahead and you can see the possibilities of a lot of vibrant communities in these places. You have a low cost of living, a great quality of life --- there’s a population there that wants to be there but can still participate in cutting edge, substantial work.” Doug Burgum, Great Plains Software

42. Virtuality is Coming… I leave my house in the country and drive 17 miles through the blue grass. But when I open my computer I am at my center, it feels like I am back in San Jose. It's a kind of virtual Silicon Valley.”Alan Hawse Director of CAD DevelopmentCypress Semiconductor

43. The Key to a Successful National Strategy This above all: to thine own self be true William Shakespeare

44. A Useful Insight “If you need a campaign to prove you’re hip and cool, you’re not.” Michigan talk radio host on Governor Jennifer Granholm’s “Cool Cities” initiative

45. Beyond Hip and Cool: Migration of Educated Workers 1995-2005 Net Domestic Migration of College Educated, Number of Migrants per 1,000 total Population,1995-2000 and 2004-2005

46. The Biggest Challenge: The Issue of Potential Immigrant Underclass Growth of poorly educated newcomers and youngsters poses a unique problem, particularly with the end of the property boom Sense of separation from society needs to be addressed aggressively Economic development needs to focus on their upward mobility — not “luring” the middle class, but creating one”

47. American Experience: When the kids get together…something happens… • Mixed race designation is officially at 2.5percent • But intermarriage rates are up, particularly in second generation • Barack Obama, Mariah Carey, Tiger Woods all multi-racial role models

48. Intermarriage rates in Los Angeles Five County area

49. The American future: the rise of hybrid society… • A survey of LA and NYC Latino and Asian youths finds culture more important than race • 85% of first generation Latinos, 97% second identify first as Americans • American Muslims out-perform national norms in income, education and voter participation. They are also more satisfied with their lives than most Americans • Cross-culture Latino , Asian , Middle Easter influence move into mainstream • Ethnicity matters, but less than class or culture.

50. Official multiculturalism is not the answer…Middle class Opportunity and Personal Contact between individuals represent the best way to the future