A Systems Approach to HSCB

2. A Systems Approach to HSCB • Geo-Political Environment • Military • NGO, DoS, etc. • Human Environment • Power Environment

3. A Systems Approach • Deterministic Systems • Chaotic Systems • Complex Systems • System of Systems . . .

4. Understanding the Military Environment: Range of Military Operations (ROMO) Hybrid / IrregularWarfare Relevance / Capability TraditionalWarfare Phase 0 1 2 3 4 5 Deter Crisisdefined Seize Initiative Assure friendly freedom of action / access theater infrastructure Dominate Establish dominant force capabilities / achieve full-spectrum superiority Stabilize Establish security and restore services Enable Civil Authority Transfer to civil authority and redeploy Shape Prevent prepare

5. Understanding the Human Environment • Economic Stability, Growth, Prosperity • Law & Order (Rule of Law?) • Governance • Food • Water • Shelter

6. Environment of Power/Influence Fundamentalism Religious state Tribalism Ludite-ism Zionism Traditionalism New Caliphate

7. Three Dimensions of the Environment Power & Influence Context Geo-Political (including military) Human Context

8. Key to Understanding the Environment • Anthropology • Criminology • Communication Sciences • Education • Economics • Geography • Political Science • Psychology • Religion • Sociology • and others . . . • Economics • Political Science • Psychology • Sociology

9. Goals Summary I IV Long List Short List II V POWER Economics Political Science Psychology Sociology III Long List Long List Functional Integration Long List Long List

10. Goals Summary II • Need a new Paradigm for “Systems Engineering” • Applied to Complex System of Systems • Rigorous despite difficulty in establishing definitions • & cause ability • Attributes of re-produce ability & scalability • Data & hypothesis driven • Ability to forecast outcomes

11. QUESTIONS? QUESTIONS?

12. Back UP

13. Decomposition - Sociology • Demographics • Sex and Gender • Sociology of Law • Collective Behavior & Social Movements • International Migration • Political Economy of the World-System • Children and Youth • Crime, Law, and Deviance • Mathematical Sociology • Peace, War and Conflict • Racial and Ethnic Minorities • Political Sociology • Population Sociology Adapted from American Sociological Association

14. Human, Social, Cultural & Behavioral Sciences Vision Mastery of the social, cultural and cognitive factors that optimize the warfighter’s ability to influence human behavior in the full range of military operations. Mission Integrated portfolio to study influence of cultural, social and cognitive factors on human behavior, develop data collection methods, build computational models, and validate operationally applicable tools. Objective • Advance the state of the art in social science theory to apply to Naval missions and challenges. • Develop methods and tools to enable socio-cultural data collection and generation for a range of mission and environmental conditions. • Provide analysis methods and computational models to support course of action decisions and operational planning. • Produce training and education tools and materials to support cross cultural interaction in support of Naval missions. Understanding Behavior Computational Models Social Network Analysis Cross-Cultural Training Key Research and Technology Investment Areas • Theory and Understanding • Data Generation • Methods to collect socio-cultural data in new and austere environments • Methods and tools to generate data • Analytics and Modeling • Analysis techniques and tools to support decision makers • Computational Models that incorporate socio-cultural data and knowledge • Socio-Cultural Training & Education • Methods and materials to support cross-cultural T&E • Tools for training generalizable cross-cultural skills • Methods and tools to improve warfighter adaptability in cross cultural