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Rocky Mountain Commercial Real Estate Expo & DU Fall Forecast. November 12, 2004. G REYSTAR. Greystar Offices . Regional Offices. Denver, CO. Charleston, SC (Headquarters). Phoenix, AZ. Dallas, TX. Jacksonville, FL. Austin, TX. Tampa, FL. Houston, TX. Ft. Lauderdale, FL.
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Rocky Mountain Commercial Real Estate Expo & DU Fall Forecast November 12, 2004 GREYSTAR
Greystar Offices Regional Offices Denver, CO Charleston, SC (Headquarters) Phoenix, AZ Dallas, TX Jacksonville, FL Austin, TX Tampa, FL Houston, TX Ft. Lauderdale, FL Regional Offices Greystar Presence (Management, Construction or Investment) National in Presence Regional in Practice
Four Lines of Business Property Management Greystar Construction Development Investment GREYSTAR
DEVELOPMENT • Develop with a national perspective and local expertise • Over $800 million of real estate developed over the last ten years • Product types include multifamily housing, office, industrial, retail and hotels GREYSTAR
INVESTMENT • Greystar sponsored investments approaching $2 Billion • One-stop shopping for investors, bypassing traditional investment advisors • Opportunistic. Create value at all stages of investment cycle and execute with in-house capabilities • Investment partners include Crow Holdings, JMI, Oregon Pension Fund, Goldman Sachs, Prudential, Recap, FNMA and Morgan Stanley GREYSTAR
PROPERTY MANAGEMENT • Manage over 60,000 units • 12th largest property manager in nation (Source: NMHC) • 3rd largest third-party multifamily manager • 1,850 team members in 30 markets • 5 largest clients: Sendera, Invesco, Fannie Mae, Investment Associates, and Merrill Lynch GREYSTAR
CONSTRUCTION • Construction Volume: $150M • 90% 3rd party business • 10 % construction services for Greystar projects • Diverse product types: multifamily, senior living, hotels, and retail • $100 million in Bonding Capacity GREYSTAR
GREYSTAR Growth of the Real Estate Investment Market • Amount of Money in the Market • Stability of the Market • Historical Real Estate Returns
GREYSTAR Cap Rate and Interest Rate Relationship • National • Denver
GREYSTAR Investment Analysis Case Study • Yesterday’s Investment • Today’s Reality • Tomorrow’s Bet
GREYSTAR The Future • The Rising Tide
GREYSTAR Growth of the Real Estate Investment Market • Amount of Money in the Market • Stability of the Market • Historical Real Estate Returns
GREYSTAR REITS – 1993 Vs. 2004 Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update
GREYSTAR Capital Chasing Deals Billions +63.2% Since January 97, the money supply has risen from $3.8 to $6.2 Trillion. Source: Federal Reserve Board – M2
GREYSTAR Public Securities And Real Estate Performance S&P 500 Stock Index NASDAQ Comp. Index NAREIT REIT Index NCREIF Property Index Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update
GREYSTAR Public Securities And Real Estate Performance S&P 500 Stock Index NASDAQ Comp. Index NAREIT REIT Index NCREIF Property Index Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update
GREYSTAR $100 Investment Performance - 1994 - 2004 Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update
GREYSTAR 10 – Year Treasury Yield Source: Federal Reserve
GREYSTAR Total U.S Sales Volume By Property Type (Billions) Source: Real Capital Analytics
GREYSTAR Metro Denver Historical Real Estate Investment (millions) Source: CoStar Group and Apartment Appraisers
GREYSTAR Metro Denver Historical Price per Square Foot Source: CoStar Group and Apartment Appraisers
GREYSTAR Historical Commercial Mortgage Flow Source: Federal Reserve
GREYSTAR Cap Rate and Interest Rate Relationship • National
GREYSTAR National Cap Rates By Property Type Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update
GREYSTAR National Multifamily Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve
GREYSTAR National Multifamily Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Spread 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.6 4.5 2.6 Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve
GREYSTAR National Office - CBD Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve
GREYSTAR National Office - CBD Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield 3.0 2.6 2.9 Spread 2.8 4.4 5.4 3.5 Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve
GREYSTAR National Industrial Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve
GREYSTAR National Industrial Cap Rate Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Spread 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.1 5.2 3.4 Source: ULI’s Real Estate Capital Markets Update and Federal Reserve
GREYSTAR Cap Rate and Interest Rate Relationship • National • Denver
GREYSTAR Metro Denver Historical Cap Rates Source: CoStar Group and Apartment Appraisers
GREYSTAR Investment Analysis Case Study • Yesterday’s Investment • Today’s Reality • Tomorrow’s Bet
GREYSTAR The Summit at Flatirons • 500 Units • 481,569 Total Square Feet • Average Unit: 963 Sq.Ft.
GREYSTAR 2000 Proforma
GREYSTAR Today’s Reality
GREYSTAR Tomorrow’s projection
GREYSTAR Rising Tide • Interest Rates • Delinquency Rates • Cap Rates • Employment
GREYSTAR Rising Tide • Interest Rates
GREYSTAR One Month LIBOR Forecast Source: Morgan Stanley
GREYSTAR Rising Tide • Interest Rates • Delinquency Rates
GREYSTAR Mortgage Delinquency Rates Source: Freddie Mac
GREYSTAR Rising Tide • Interest Rates • Delinquency Rates • Cap Rates
GREYSTAR Rising Tide • Interest Rates • Delinquency Rates • Cap Rates • Employment
GREYSTAR Metro Denver Employment Growth 1994 - 2003 Source: Metro Denver EDC
Rocky Mountain Commercial Real Estate Expo & DU Fall Forecast November 12, 2004 GREYSTAR