Weather and Climate Risk Perceptions: Understanding Public Perspectives

Rain or shine? Understanding public perceptions of weather and climate risk Dr Andrea Taylor Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment a.l.taylor@leeds.ac.uk

University of Leeds • Prof Wӓndi Bruine de Bruin • Prof Suraje Dessai • University College London • Dr Carmen Lefevre • Carnegie Mellon University • Prof Baruch Fischoff • Dr Kelly Klima • London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine • Dr Sari Kovats

Funding

Climate change is a concept that can be difficult to understand • Linking it to specific types of weather events may make it more concrete and personally relevant • - Weber and Stern (2009)

Why is this important to explore this? • Awareness • Mitigation • Adaptation

Local warming • Climate change concern amongst US public influenced by local temperatures. • However, not all countries experience frequent hot summers. • (e.g., Deryugina, 2013; Egan & Mullin, 2012; Hamilton & Stampone, 2013; Risen et al., 2011)

Residents in temperate regions may even look forward to the prospect of warmer summers (Bruine de Bruine et al., 2016; Lefevre et al., 2015 Palutikof et al., 2004)

However, increased temperatures are not the only projected impact of climate change • The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment projects an increase in rainfall and flooding Rochdale Town Centre, Boxing Day 2015. Photographer: Chris Birtles

Studies 1 and 2 (Taylor et al., 2014; Lefevre et al, in review) • To what extent are perceptions of weather linked to beliefs about climate change amongst UK residents? • Robert Wade http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/1925559 • Gordon Hatton http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/126451 • John Brightley http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/2201581

Study 1 A lot more frequent No change At lot less frequent “Do you think that the following have become more or less frequent over your lifetime” (n=2007: Survey conducted by Ipsos MORI, 2013)

Relationship between perceived change in weather climate change concern *Sig at p≤.05 **Sig at p≤.01 ***Sig at p≤.001 • Note: OLS regression model (β) controlled for demographic variables

Explanations • For UK residents extreme wet weather is easier to recall • Availability Heuristic: Threats judged to be riskier when they are easily recalled (Tversky and Kahneman, 1973) • For UK residents hot weather is often felt to be pleasant • Affect Heuristic: Threats judged to be more risky when they (Slovic et al., 2004)

Limitation: This study only looked at perceptions at one point in time. We can’t tell what causes what. • Experiential Reasoning: • Motivational Reasoning: • Perceived • weather • Climate • concern Climate concern Perceived weather • (e.g. Myers et al., 2012; Weber, 2010)

Study 2: A national UK sample was presented with the same questions as Study 1 at three points during 2013/14 *Sig at p≤.05 **Sig at p≤.01 ***Sig at p≤.001 • Note: OLS regression model (β) controlled for demographic variables

Motivational reasoning was found for wet and hot weather. • Experiential reasoning was only found for wet weather. • Conclusions • For UK residents concern about climate change leads to greater perceived experience of wet and hot weather. • However, only perceived experience of wet weather leads to greater climate change concern. • Attributable to the greater “availability” of wet weather, and the positive “affect” evoked by hot weather.

Study 3 (Taylor et al., in review) • What are UK residents expectations and priorities with respect to the future impacts of climate change?

PREPARE (Ipsos MORI, 2013: n=2007) • Each participant randomly shown 10 out of 19 impacts. • Impacts included opportunities as well as threats. • Participants rated expected likelihood, expected concern and willingness to allocate resources. • We compared concern with expert assessments of severity (Climate Change Risk Assessment, 2012) Taylor et al. (IN REVIEW)

Threats perceived as more likely that opportunities • Public expectations not always consistent with expert assessment. • Wet weather and flooding perceived as most likely (and most concerning). • Concern about specific impacts predicted willingness to allocate resources.

Conclusions • Concern about specific impacts rather than broader climate concern is linked to greater willingness to expend resources. • However, residents may be less well prepared for future increases in hot weather than future increases in wet weather

Study 4 (Taylor et al., in preparation) • How accurate are UK and US residents perceptions of recent temperature and rainfall? • Do UK and US residents differ in the extent to which they link perceived experience of temperature and rainfall to personal threat from climate change?

Perceived seasonal temperatures: UK and US residents “Warmer than normal” “About normal” “Colder than normal” US=488 participants, UK=462 participants

Perceived seasonal rainfall: UK and US residents “Wetter than normal” “About normal” “Drier than normal” US=488 participants, UK=462 participants

Key findings • Recalled national conditions did not always match observations, and appear to be driven by prominent events. • Peoples appear to generalise perceived experience of to national and global conditions (“attribute substitution”). • Amongst US residents perceived hot summers linked to greater perceived threat from climate change. • Amongst UK residents wet winters linked to greater perceived threat from climate change.

Study 5 (Klima et al., in preparation) • Do UK and US residents differ in the extent to which they are prepared to take steps to adapt to different types of climate change impact?

Expectations about future weather US=474 participants, UK=607 participants

Willingness to adapt US=474 participants, UK=607 participants

Note: OLS regression model controlled for demographic variables

Key findings • US residents more willing to adapt to increases hot than wet weather. • UK residents more willing to adapt to increases in wet than hot weather • For both UK and US residents expectations about future weather predicted willingness to adapt.

Conclusions • Concern about climate change and its impacts linked to “availability” and “affect”. • Perceptions of weather can drive climate change concern, but climate change concern also drive weather perceptions • Public recollections and expectations do not always match expert observations and projections. • Willingness to adapt may be driven more by concern about specific impacts than general concern about climate change

Implications for communication • Mitigation • Be aware that the impacts that people associate with climate change varies between regions. • While weather experience can drive concern, concern may also influence perceived weather experience. • Adaptation • Focusing on specific impacts rather than general climate concerns may be more effective in increasing preparedness.

Climate Change Adaptation Group • http://lubswww2.leeds.ac.uk/cdr/ • http://www.see.leeds.ac.uk/research/sri/climate-change-adaptation-group/

Thank you!

Jul Jul Jul • Experiential path Motivational path • Note: Covariance paths and control variables are omitted for presentation purposes. • ‡p< .10 ; *p<.05; **p<.01; ***p<.001

For US residents perceived threat from climate change was linked to perceived experience of hot summer temperatures.

For UK residents perceived threat from climate change was driven by perceived experience of winter rainfall.

Weather and Climate Risk Perceptions: Understanding Public Perspectives