Habitat, conflict, and poaching of Asiatic black bears Ursus thibetanus in Central China

1. Habitat, conflict, and poaching of Asiatic black bears Ursus thibetanus in Central China Liu Fang, Wang Dajun, Zhu Xiaojian – Peking University, Beijing, China William J. McShea, Conservation and Research Center, Smithsonian Inst. David Garshelis, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Grand Rapids

2. Distribution of Asiatic Black Bears The current map of black bear distribution based on expert opinion collected by IUCN Bear Specialist Group

3. Population Trend (IUCN Bear Specialist Group, Japan 2006) Most countries either “status unknown” or “known to be declining”

4. 1997 Population Estimates Derived from: Interviews, all species sign surveys & habitat extrapolations; 10,000 transects covering >22,000 km2 Asiatic Black Bears in China Within China, there had only been one survey of black bears as part of a 1997 all-species survey. This resulted in 3 different estimates of bear numbers and 1 official state number. It is very difficult to estimate numbers of bears and a better way to track populations is needed.

5. Sichuan Province 48,000 km2 Sichuan province is the size of France and has a broad range of elevations and habitat types

6. Why are bears having problems in China and particularly in Sichuan Province? • Crop damage • Wildlife trade – restaurants andtraditional medicine Bears in China have the same problems as bears throughout Asia – conflicts with villagers over crop damage, and poaching to supply the restaurant and medicine trade.

7. Asiatic Black Bears in Sichuan • Province-wide survey • Village interviews • Sign transects • _____________________ • Trained reservestaff used

8. 2015 15 x 15 km cells There are 6 physiographic regions in Sichuan province and we condensed this into 3 zones for analysis – East (I-IV), West (V) and South (VI)

9. Selected grids County border Unselected grids Sichuan border Forest cover Elevation “Final” Selection 372 cells (18%) Road Density We decided where to look based on forest cover, elevation and road density. Our final selection had a good range of each combination of values.

10. 494 cells surveyed (24%) We surveyed 24% of the province. Each cell (15km x 15km) was visited, with interviews and ground surveys conducted.

11. 1,800 interviewrecords from>400 townships All interviews were conducted by Liu Fang (Peking University) and staff of Wanglang Nature Reserve

12. Inspecting bear feeding platform in Ye Minority Area in southern Sichuan.

13. Bear Sign Examples of bear sign: Claw marks and feeding platforms (nests)

14. More Bear Sign

15. Examples of foods eaten by bears in these forests

16. The protocol • In suitable habitat • 5 transects - 100 m x 20 m across slope • All trees examined for sign • No sign located with villagers or by transect = no bears When no villagers could bring staff to bear sign, the staff established transects in best forest and looked for sign.

17. Results 360 red cells (73%) - with bears Green cells – no bears Dark green lost bears > lifetime Light green (33% of green) lost bears in their lifetime Results: 73% of the cells surveyed contained evidence of bears. Red cells = bears / Green cells = no bears / Lighter green = decrease in bears

18. Logistic Model Construction • 3 regions (eastern, southern, western) • Used AIC values to rank models of all sensible combinations of variables • Considered models with delta AIC < 2 equivalent • Eastern region – best models – forest, agriculture, and shrub cover; number of towns; elevation • Western and Southern region – best models – forest, agriculture and shrub cover; amt of roads • Assigned probability of occurrence to each cell Statistical model to predict bears across the province. Most important factors are forest cover, amount of agriculture and roads.

19. Probability of Bear Occurrence in Sichuan Province 41% of Province is occupied (> 67% prob.) The darker the green the more likely there are bears. At present 41% of province is occupied. This is the baseline to be used in future surveys. We have overlaid the present park system and many giant panda parks could also serve to conserve bears. Need for more reserves in southwest of province.

20. Tipping Points • in Sichuan Province • < 20% Forest cover > 30% Agriculture > 25 towns/cell First 2 can be measured with remote sensing technology Based on statistical model we can see where tipping points can cause loss of bears. When forest cover drops below 30% / agricultural cover increases beyond 30% / number of towns increases beyond 25 per cell – the probability of bears decreases significantly.

21. Use Interview of Local Villagersto Gauge Population Trends855 interviews in cells occupied by bears(July 2005 – November 2006) In areas with bears, we interviewed villagers to discover their attitudes towards bears

22. Average farm – mixture of forest and crops

23. Villager View of Bear Population Trend 58% consider bearnumbers are decreasing - Pink cells No new bear populations

24. Bears are decreasing or extirpated at all levels of habitat quality These ranges of forestcoverand agricultureshould be okay for bears based on ground surveys,yet bears are notprospering You can measure the suitabilityof habitat remotely, but notwhether bears are persisting Are these declining populations found mostly in poor habitat? NO – declining populations can be found in best habitats so at least some decline is related to other factors such as poaching.

25. Does religious background or nationality make a difference? Most wildlife foundin minority regions – Several ethnic groups in Sichuan - 4 ethnic groups in our study

26. What do villagers think about bears*???? • 63% - believe bear numbers decreasing [42% blame poaching] • 48% - dislike bears in area • 43% - no opinion • 9% - favourable to bears • Han, Tibetan, and Yi cultures not significantly different in attitude. • The more contact with bears the less likely a villager to have favorable or neutral opinion (Least Squares Mean, p < 0.01) • More education and less contact are important (stepwise multiple regression, p < 0.01) Most people interviewed do not like bears. The problems are centred around crop and livestock damage. Tibetan culture, which is very favourable to wildlife conservation goals, did not prevent villagers from having negative opinions of bears * based on 850 interviews in bear occupied cells

27. Bear damage and conflict occurs throughout province 360 cells with bears 174 crop damage 114 livestock damage 49 attacks on people Bears and humans do have conflict. Villagers throughout the region report crop damage, livestock damage and attacks on humans. These conflicts are the root of many bear conservation issues in Sichuan province.

28. Poaching reported in 112 cells (1/3 cells with bears) In all areas where bears were present we asked villagers about the level of poaching. Poaching was reported across the province. It was not limited to one region or one ethnic group.

29. Poaching activity related to bear population trend Taking the admittance of poaching in the previous slide as an index of where poaching occurs, we can see that these places are where bear populations are more likely to be declining. 80% of populations are declining in areas of poaching activity 38% of populations are declining in areas of nopoaching

30. What do villagers do about bear conflicts? (472 replies) • 54% - Tolerate • 30% - Complain to Gov. • 14% - Poaching / poison • 2% - Non-lethal prevention (dogs, fires) No government programme to compensate or educate

31. It is difficult to obtain a true picture of how much poaching impacts bear populations. The most information here is that few villagers use non-lethal means to deter bears and 1/3 complain to the government, even though there is no programme to redress their losses

32. QinLing Min Shan Qionglai Sichuan Basin Xiangling Liang Mountains With the exception of the northern QinLing mountains, this study encompassed all the current range of giant pandas outlined in yellow.

33. The range of bears overlaps entirely the known range of giant pandas in Sichuan province. Most reserves in the heart of the bear range were established for giant pandas and not for bears.

34. Asiatic black bears more indicative of conservation priority area than pandas Bears may be a better species to assess conservation hot spots than pandas. The light green area is the extent of the Tibetan area hot spot as identified by Conservation International. The range of giant pandas is in red and the range of bears in Sichuan province is the boxes. The boxes more closely track the conservation area than do the red areas. In Sichuan province tracking bear populations may be a good surrogate for tracking the health of the conservation area.

35. Acknowledgements National Zoo (FONZ) Sichuan Forestry Department Wanglang Reserve Staff International Bear Association Animals Asia Foundation (AAF) Earthwatch Wildlife Conservation Society Virginia Tech University Peking University World Society for Protection of Animals (WSPA) China Wildlife ConservationAgency

36. Thank You!