The Maryland-National Capital Park & Planning Commission

1. The Maryland-National Capital Park & Planning Commission Managing growth in Montgomery County Adequacy of school facilities Housing September 13, 2003

2. Presentation Outline • What are the trends affecting school enrollment and classroom capacity? • How does the AGP test the adequacy of public school facilities? • What are the trends in housing, including affordable housing?

3. What are the trends affecting school enrollment and classroom capacity?

4. Factors affecting school enrollment • Enrollment September 2002: 138,891 • Overlapping factors: • Births: • Aging through: • Migration (moving into both new and existing housing) • Overall: new development is responsible for about 20% of enrollment growth.

5. County births reach all-time high in 2002 Montgomery County Resident Births One child born every 40 minutes 3

6. MCPS enrollment change from prior year

7. Grades K-5 enrollment begins increasing again in 3 years MCPS Grades K-5 Enrollment Actual 1980-2002 & Projected 2003- 08 61, 800 59,112 33,146

8. Grades 6 –8 enrollment reaches plateau over next six years MCPS Grades 6-8 Enrollment Actual 1980-2002 & Projected 2003- 08 30,407 30,112 18,661 7

9. Grades 9 - 12 enrollment increases for most of six year forecast MCPS Grades 9 - 12 Enrollment Actual 1980-2002 & Projected 2003- 08 42,121 39,306 26,777

10. Total enrollment continues to increase over next six years 144,801 138,891 91,030 8

11. Since 1983, MCPS enrollment growth exceeds 48,000 MCPS Enrollment by Race/ Ethnic Group, 1970 - 2002 HISPANIC ASIAN-AMERICAN AFRICAN-AMERICAN WHITE African-American, Asian-American & Hispanic populations increase

12. MCPS Operates 191 Schools in 2003-04 Number of MCPS Operating Schools

13. Number of relocatables increases MCPS - Number of Relocatables in Use, 2003-04 & Reason For Use Beginning in 2000-01 682 Increase due to enrollment growth & class size reductions 22

14. How does the current AGP test the adequacy of school facilities?

15. Current school test • Schools tested at 3 levels (elementary, middle, high) for every cluster. • Compare future enrollment to future capacity (5 years from now). • Capacity: kindergarten: 44 or 22; grades 1-5: 25; secondary grades: 22.5 • Cluster with enrollment over 100% of capacity: use capacity in adjacent clusters. • Damascus cluster’s moratorium (FY2002) lifted due to new Clarksburg High School.

16. School test example Quince Orchard Elementary Schools 2008 Enrollment 2,915 2008 Capacity 3,015 Capacity Avail. 100 Watkins Mill Elementary Schools 2008 Enrollment 3,147 2008 Capacity 3,079 Capacity Deficit 68

17. School test concerns • When schools are over-crowded, the test shouldn’t say “adequate.” • Are we using the best measures of enrollment and capacity? • Using capacity from adjacent clusters is problematic. • Need mechanism for development to pay toward school facilities.

18. Comparing enrollment & capacity 100%, No Borrowing “AGP Capacity” 100%, No Borrowing “MCPS Program Capacity” Enrollment exceeds capacity Enrollment below capacity

19. Planning Board’s recommendation & the school test • Individual development proposals are not subject to a school adequacy review. • School adequacy taken into account in setting Preliminary Plan Approval Rate. • Proposal benefits schools in two ways: • Slows pace of residential development approvals • Requires payment of development impact tax for schools at building permit. • Endorsed by Board of Education

20. Planning Board’s proposed school impact tax rates Residential (proposed) Detached Town Garden Hi-Rise Senior MPDUs $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $1,600 $0 $0 Residential rates per unit; “Senior” means multi-family senior housing; “MPDU” means “moderately-priced dwelling unit” as defined by County law.

21. What are the trends in housing, including affordable housing?

22. About 65,500 new units were built from 1988 through 2002 5,485 Single-Family Detached Townhouse Multi-family Townhouse and multi-family increased in 2002; 2002 completions exceed prior 12 years Source; M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

23. Housing prices continue to rise Median price of single-family home Source: M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

24. Housing affordability shows slight decline. Affordability index for existing single-family homes Interest rate increases are a potential threat to affordability gains in the past decade. The higher the score, the more affordable the housing is. A score of 1 means the monthly cost of buying a home equals 28% of gross income. Source: M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center

25. 2002 brings marked increase in most prices New Single Family Median Prices Existing Single Family New Townhouse Existing Townhouse Source: M-NCPPC Research & Technology Center 2002 prices are for the first half of the year only.

26. Apartment vacancy rates riseEconomic downturn, new units reduce pressure Vacancy rate Source: Montgomery County Office of Landlord-Tenant Affairs

27. Rents continue upward trend Monthly rent, in dollars Source: Montgomery County Office of Landlord-Tenant Affairs

28. Summary • School trends: the challenge will continue as enrollment increases and becomes more diverse. • Current school test: Almost never imposes moratorium, but most enrollment growth is not due to new development • Proposed school impact tax: Would provide a dedicated revenue source for 20% of CIP • Housing: Demand is very high and most trends threaten affordability. One that doesn’t: more multi-family units are being built.