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Extended range prediction during 2013 season Using Ensemble Prediction System based in CFSv2 And

Extended range prediction during 2013 season Using Ensemble Prediction System based in CFSv2 And GFSv2 forced with Bias corrected CFSv2 forecasted SST. Extended Range Prediction Group Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Strategy:. Ensemble Prediction using CFS/GFSv2 (T126).

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Extended range prediction during 2013 season Using Ensemble Prediction System based in CFSv2 And

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  1. Extended range prediction during 2013 season Using Ensemble Prediction System based in CFSv2 And GFSv2 forced with Bias corrected CFSv2 forecasted SST Extended Range Prediction Group Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

  2. Strategy: Ensemble Prediction using CFS/GFSv2 (T126) • Ocean and Atmospheric Initial conditions (IC) are obtained from NCEP. • Technique was developed to perturb ICs to generate 11 members. (Abhilash et al., 2013) • Model has been integrated for 45 days for each 11 ICs at five day intervals starting from 1st May (Eg: 01May, 06May, 11May, 16May, 21May, 26May,31May, 05Jun........etc).Climatology has been calculated from 10-year hindcast climatology. • Bias correction in daily forecasted SST from CFSv2 for each lead time has been done by removing the daily mean bias for corresponding lead time (model climatology-observed climatology) from forecasted daily SST. (Sahai et al., 2013; Abhilash et al., 2013)

  3. Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa CFS forecast based on IC=21 May 2013

  4. Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa bias corrected CFS forecasted SST forced GFS Forecast based on IC=21 May 2013

  5. Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 200hPa CFS forecast based on IC=21 May 2013

  6. Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 200hPa bias corrected CFS forecasted SST forced GFS Forecast based on IC=21 May 2013

  7. CFS forecast based on IC=21 May 2013 Actual Anomaly

  8. GFS forecast based on IC=21 May 2013 Actual Anomaly

  9. CFS-GFS Forecast Over Homogenous Regions MZI, CEI, NEI, NWI & SPI

  10. MZI GFS CFS P1 P2

  11. MZI GFS CFS P3 P4

  12. CEI GFS CFS P1 P2

  13. CEI GFS CFS P3 P4

  14. NEI GFS CFS P1 P2

  15. NEI GFS CFS P3 P4

  16. NWI GFS CFS P1 P2

  17. NWI GFS CFS P3 P4

  18. SPI GFS CFS P1 P2

  19. SPI GFS CFS P3 P4

  20. How MISO is computed: (ref: Suhas etal., 2012) • Extended EOF analysis is carried out similar to Wheeler and Hendon 2004 using • standardized rainfall anomalies up to lag -15 days, averaged between 60-95E for • the latitudes -12 to 30. The rainfall anomalies for the lag days are appended side • by side to create the extended data matrix. • The EOF analysis is carried out using IMD-TRMM merged data from 1998-2011. • The real time data for 2013 is projected onto the EOFs created from the 14 years of • past data. • The amplitude of EOF1 and EOF2 (PC1 and PC2 ) are plotted in a PC1/PC2 • phase space similar to Wheeler Hendon 2004 to get an idea of the evolution • of ISO and its strength.

  21. Composite Rainfall anomalies in different phases Phase1: Peninsular India Phase2: Central India Phase3: Central India Phase4: North India Phase5: Foothills Phase6: South Indian Ocean Phase7: Indian Ocean Phase8: Southern tip

  22. MISO monitoring and forecast for next 25 days GFS(bias corrected) CFS

  23. MISO monitoring and forecast for next 25 days GFS(bias corrected) CFS

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