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An operational system for air quality monitoring and forecasting over Europe

An operational system for air quality monitoring and forecasting over Europe. Honoré C. (1) , Menut L. (2) , Bessagnet B. (1) , Meleux F . (1) ,Rouil L. (1) , Vautard R. (2) , Beekmann M. (3) , Poisson N. (4) , Peuch V-H (5) 1 Ineris; 2 LMD/IPSL; 3 LISA; 4 ADEME; 5 Meteo-France

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An operational system for air quality monitoring and forecasting over Europe

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  1. An operational system for air quality monitoring and forecasting over Europe • HonoréC.(1), Menut L. (2), Bessagnet B.(1), Meleux F.(1),Rouil L. (1) , Vautard R.(2), Beekmann M.(3), Poisson N.(4), Peuch V-H(5) • 1Ineris; 2 LMD/IPSL; 3 LISA; 4 ADEME; 5 Meteo-France • This platform is proposed by the PREV ’AIR consortium - http://www.prevair.org • Questions about PREV ’AIR? Please send an e-mail to frederik.meleux@ineris.fr

  2. PREV’AIR : www.prevair.org • Built for operational purposes: • In France public information related to pollution episodes (threshold exceedances) can be driven by observations but also by forecasts since 2003 • The system : • a cooperative system for air quality monitoring, forecasting and mapping over Western Europe and France ; • set up in 2003 by: • Builds up and hosts the prev ’air system • Model development : CHIMERE AQ expertise for the Ministry • INERIS • Public organization under the supervision of the Ministry of Ecology • ADEME • National Agency of Environment • Builds up and hosts the NRT databaseAQ expertise for the Ministry • CNRS • National Research Centre • Model development : CHIMERE • Météo France • National Meteorological services • Model development : MOCAGE Meteorological forecasts

  3. Other objectives • Complement the French air quality monitoring network • Complete areas little or not at all covered by fixed measurement stations • Technical support to the French Ministry for Ecology in the framework of international negotiations about transboundary air pollution (implementation of integrated policies aiming at reducing pollutant emissions in Europe) • Science: Validation of the models and of our knowledge • Provide operational boundary conditions for smaller-scale forecasting systems

  4. Architecture of the system • 3D CTM • CHIMERE (CNRS/INERIS) • MOCAGE (Météo-France) • Input data • Meteorological forecasts • AVN / NCEP + MM5 • ARPEGE, ALADIN • Emissions inventories • EMEP • EDGAR • Boundary concentrations • LMDzINCA+GOCART • MOCAGE • BASTER / ADEME NRT obs. data • Post processing tools • Statistically adapted forecast • Analyses • Evaluation • Extraction of numerical data

  5. Domains Over Europe Over France Horizontal resolution: 0.5°x 0.5° 0.15° x 0.1° Vertical resolution: 8 levels from surface pressure up to 500 hPa Meteorological forecast data AVN / NCEP for initialisation and boundary conditions MM5 higher resolution forecasts (36km - 18km) Chemical scheme MELCHIOR reduced (~45 species, ~120 reactions) Aerosol module Dust, PPM, SOA, nitrates, sulphates, ammonium, Water Contents 25 reactions (aqueous and heterogeneous phase) Other model configurations: meteorology: ECMWF, ARPEGE / ALADIN BC: MOZART, LMDZ-INCA, GOCART See http://euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere The CHIMERE Model Set-Up in PREV’AIR

  6. The MOCAGE Model Set-Upin PREV’AIR • Domains • Global Model / Over Europe / Over France • Horizontal resolution:4°x 4° 0.5° x 0.5° 0.1° x 0.1° • Vertical resolution: 47 levels from surface pressure up to 5hP • Meteorological forecast data • ARPEGE and ALADIN • Chemical scheme • RACMOBUS(118 species, 381 reactions) • No aerosol module

  7. PREV’AIR Outputs: Daily Forecasts • Available at D+0, 01-06 h LT • Daily peak and averaged concentration maps • D+0, D+1, D+2 • Pollutants: O3, NO2, particulate matter • Global scale, Europe, France

  8. The Observation Network 41 Air Quality related organisms (AASQA) 680 monitoring stations O3, NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2.5 Collected in real time tothe national AQ database BASTER Downloaded for being used within Prev’Airfor evaluation and correctionprocessing

  9. Ozone peak, rural stations, RMSE (µg/m3) D+0 (15/06/2006 - 15/09/2006) • Statistics and Scores -Each summer and winter, scores are estimated. Ozone peak, rural stations, correlation (%) D+0 (15/06/2006 - 15/09/2006) -Summer 2006 from April to September CF: Chimere over France OI: with Optimal Interpolation • -For ozone the model slightly overestimates the peak values • -The correlation decreases but slowly highlighting the robustness of the model.

  10. PREV’AIR monitoring: Analyses • Analyses are combination of obervations and model outputs (NRT) • Kriging method • Outputs: • Ozone peak concentration • PM peak concentration • Daily data July 25, 2006

  11. Statisticaladaptation • Modelled concentrations corrected withclimatology - over the last past years : • From 2003, 2004, and 2005 a linear regression is built for the ozone concentration error for each station : • Statistical adaptation: kriging • method • Available at D+0 for D+0 D+1 • and D+2 [O3]error=[O3]sim-[O3]obs over 240 stations (rural and suburban) [O3]error= station Tsim° + station [O3]sim

  12. Finer grids

  13. User Information Exchange • Since the information is daily published on Internet and filed in a database, the Prev ’Air system is opened to all persons and organisation that would like to, personally or professionally, be informed on the continent-wide evolution and trends of pollutant behaviour in the short and medium term. • PREV ’AIR numerical data • Extraction over user-defined domains • Available through internet for Air Quality Institutions (user accounts) • Applications • 3D data: Boundary Conditions for Air quality simulations at a local scale • 2D data : for Air Quality monitoring and forecast •  Feedback from Prev ’Air Users

  14. Ozone map on French public television • For the summer 2006, 17 days with ozone forecast broadcasting. In 2005, there were 18 days with ozone forecast on TV

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