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Climate Change Initiative Beijing: Asian G-WADI meeting 17 July 2010

Climate Change Initiative Beijing: Asian G-WADI meeting 17 July 2010. Dr. Sedigheh Torabi Ministry of Energy “Head of Policy Making and Water Allocation Sector”. Khajou Bridge – Isfahan (Constructed 17 th Century) . Table of Content. General Overview Water Governance in Iran

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Climate Change Initiative Beijing: Asian G-WADI meeting 17 July 2010

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  1. Climate Change Initiative Beijing: Asian G-WADI meeting 17 July 2010 Dr. Sedigheh Torabi Ministry of Energy “Head of Policy Making and Water Allocation Sector” Khajou Bridge – Isfahan (Constructed 17th Century)

  2. Table of Content General Overview Water Governance in Iran MOE Organizational Chart Climate Change in Iran Climate Change Initiative General Four Years Plan Next G-WADI Meeting

  3. I.R. of IRAN • Area: 1.648 million km2 • Population: 70 million • No of provinces: 30 • Average Rainfall: 271 mm • Neighboring Countries: • Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey Arab States in Persian Gulf • Language: Farsi, Azerbaijani, Kurdish, …

  4. What happened in the past? • First Book: “the Excavation of Hidden Water” Karadji – about 1000 years ago • 50 dams more than 200 yrs old • Quanat: the famous underground water system Which backs to at least 2500 years ago

  5. Population growth 2021 100 2001 66.0 1961 24.3 Unit: Million people

  6. Iran Climatological Condition Very humid region 5.3% Semi-Arid area %20 Sum: 15.5% Dry desert region 29% Humid region 6.3% Over dry region 5.35 % Sum: 84.5% Mediterranean region 5% Semi- humid region 4.3% Renewable water resources of Iran are around 25% of the world mean value.

  7. Water Resources

  8. Internal Surface Water Resources 92 Transboundary Resources 13 Total Water Resources 105 Infiltration from Surface Water 13 Total of Available Surface Water 92 Direct Infiltration from Rainfall 25 Total Infiltration (including direct infiltration from rainfall) 38 Available Fresh Water Resources 130 Return Water from Consumption 29 BCM Water Cycle in Iran Total 159

  9. Renewable Fresh Water

  10. Water Consumption at a Glance

  11. Surface Water 42 BCM Ground Water 50 BCM 6 BCM 1.1 BCM 85 BCM A Glance to Water Consumption

  12. Water Demand Water Consumption Vision 100 million Population Consumption increase due to urbanization and improved welfare

  13. We need 30 BCM more In the Normal Situation Water Supply Water Consumption Vision Water Demand 123 BCM

  14. Challenges: 1- Excess withdrawal of ground water resources. 2- Shortage of environmental water supply of aquaticbodies. 3- Not considering the effects of new water resources development projects on downstream operational and under construction projects. 4- Lack of equality between economical development of upstream and downstream regions of basins.

  15. Excess withdrawal of ground water resources. Number of Plains = 609 Population Forbidden Plains 2007 70 246 1961 24.3 0 Unit: Million people Unit: Number

  16. Groundwater Depletion 0 50 100 150 200 m groundwater Level (m) 200 250 300 ? 350 Year 400 450 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  17. Land Subsidence as a result of ground water overdraft

  18. Restricted plains

  19. Water Governance in IRAN • Ministry Of Energy: Water Supply and Allocation; Wastewater Affairs • Ministry Of Jihad-Agriculture: as most important water user (92%) • Ministry Of Health: Control of drinking water • Department Of Environment: Protection of water bodies

  20. MOE Organizational Chart Ministry of Energy Regional Water authorities Central selection board Security office Bureau of operation assessment Bureau of public awareness & international objects Ministry officials Deputy of Conservation& Parliament relations Deputy of Electric energy Deputy of Water & Wastewater Deputy of Research & Human resources Deputy of Planning & Economic objects Water Allocation Sector Water & Wastewater macro planning Bureau Planning Sector Engineering & Enviormental standards Bureau Budget Sector Water &Wastewater Operation & Conservation Bureau Water Economy & Operation Optimization Bureau

  21. Vulnerability and Adaptation (Objectives) Identification of vulnerable sectors Finding answers for questions regarding climate change impacts. Providing the necessary information for making country’s development programs … Climate Change in IRAN National Climate Change Office, december 2009

  22. Vulnerability and Adaptation:Climate modeling and change study • LARS-WG • MGGICC- SCENGEN • PRECIS • This study was conducted by the National Center for Climatology of IRMO. National Climate Change Office

  23. LARS WG Results • 2010-2039 Temperature Increasing 0.5 degrees of Centigrade in mean annual temperature National Climate Change Office

  24. Spatial Distribution of Temperature (2010-2039) National Climate Change Office

  25. Spatial Change in Average Rainfall 2020 National Climate Change Office

  26. Summary of LARS WG Results • 9% reduction in average rainfall • Average temperature will increase by 0.5 C • Threshold of heavy rainfall will be increased, therefore the flood index will be increased • Drought and number of dry days will be increased National Climate Change Office

  27. MAGICC-SCENGEN Results • 2000-2100 Change in Temperature National Climate Change Office

  28. MAGICC-SCENGEN Results • 2000-2100 Change in Rainfall % National Climate Change Office

  29. Summary of Climate Change Models: • 9% reduction in average rainfall • Average temperature will increase by 0.5 C • 36% reduction in average runoff of Karun and Karkhe Basins • Reduction in average runoff in 25 basins • Increase in average runoff in 5 basins (max 12%) National Climate Change Office

  30. Climate Change initiative Ultimate goal: Understand impacts of climate change to plan for adaptation/mitigation • Step 5: • Devise of an adaptation plan for each of the G-WADI basins • Identify immediate measures for CC adaptation • Costs associated with climate change and its adaptation Step 4: Modeling , climate projection, risk assessment Step 3: Identify the root causes of changes Step 2: Observe carefully signs of CC impacts Step 1: Define a baseline for the study + appropriate criteria for CC including shift in changing climate phases

  31. General 4 years Plan: • Year 1: Getting started and review of available sources • Engage with partners • Identify resources • Review existing strategies •  Collection of available data

  32. General 4 years Plan: • Year 2: Baseline Definition • Collection of field data • Defining a baseline for climate comparison and devising climate change criteria • Developing a comprehensive report on observed changes at the basin level

  33. General 4 years Plan: • Year 3: Modeling Phase • Identifying root causes of observed changes • Scenario development and future climate modeling • Cost analysis to estimate costs associated with the predicted climate change

  34. General 4 years Plan: Year 4: Devising an Adaptation Plan • Devise of a CC adaptation plan for each G-WADI Basin • Recommending immediate, mid-term and long-term measures for adaptation to the CC in each basin • Recommendations for formulation of the national CC adaptation plan A workshop shall be held at the end of each year to discuss achieved results and for coordination among different units.

  35. Next G-WADI Meeting: Hosting a G-WADI event in Iran in 2011

  36. Thanks forYour Kind Attention 1

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