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Produced By Cairo Node of the Millennium Project, Egypt Arab Futures Research Association,

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Produced By Cairo Node of the Millennium Project, Egypt Arab Futures Research Association,

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  1. THE STATE OF THE FUTURE IN EGYPT, 2011Major and Minor Changes(1) The Popular Uprise In Egypt, and Egypt 2020 Real Time Delphi Study. (2) The Democracy Spring In the Arab Region. (3) Future Studies And Research Potentials In Northern Sudan And Yemen States.(4) The Millennium Project 15 Global Challenges Addressed On Friday’s Sermons And In the Public Media.(5) SOF 2010, 2011 Arabic Version Collaboration (Egypt, Kuwait, Dubai)

  2. THE POPULAR UPRISE ANDEGYPT 2020 RT-Delphi STUDYPresented By Kamal Z. M. Shaeer, NedaaEzzat , and OmneyaHamzaWorld Future Society Annual Conference, Millennium Project Planning CommitteeJuly 7-10, 2011 Vancouver, Canada

  3. Produced By Cairo Node of the Millennium Project, Egypt Arab Futures Research Association, And the Collaborative Partners, IDSC, ACED

  4. Introduction

  5. STATE OF WILDCARD* FUTURE CHANGES • In-calculable, unexpected, high uncertainty. • Movement, Riot, Uprising, or Historical Revolution ?! • Out of the Blue?! (Unknown, Metaphysical, Supernatural) • Out of the Black ?! (Man’s Plot ,Man’s Plan) • Revolutionaries?! (legal, illegal) • Scenarios?! “ Low-Probability, High-Impact Changes” *W. Warren Wager, 1996: Encyclopedia of the Future, Kurian GT and Moliter G TT, eds

  6. NATIONS OF WILDCARD CHANGES [1979, 89, 91] • The Persian Spring , 1979 • The European Spring, 1989 • Democratization of Eastern Europe. • Fall of Berlin’s Wall, reunification of Germany. • The Breakup of Soviet Union, 1991 “Most visionaries failed to plan for, a few scattered visionaries considered the ramifications, thus gained superior position in the emerging changing markets”* Poland Romania Ukraine *W. Warren Wagar , 1996

  7. NATIONS IN WILDCARD CHANGES [2011] Democratization Revolutions, Of North Africa and the Middle East Most visionaries failed to plan for, only the authors of the State of the Future , 2010; of the Millennium Project reported: The Arab Spring, 2011 “ The growing gap between recent setbacks in political rights, and the emergence of global democratic consciousness , driven by new means of communication and growing interdependence” (SOF 2010 , p 18)

  8. Egypt

  9. Egypt Revolution Timeline Before 25th Jan-11 Mar-22nd May-27th Mar-23rd Mar-19th Feb- Jan 11th The Ousting Friday Feb-12th Jan- Jan 25t th“the Uprise day” Jan-28th”Anger Friday” Mar-3rd Mar-5th Apr-1st Feb-2nd Interim Constitution C. Referendum

  10. Egypt Revolution Timeline Before 25th Jan-11 Mar-22nd May-27th Mar-19th Mar-23rd Feb-11th Feb-12th Jan-25th Jan-28th Mar-3rd Mar-5th Apr-1st Feb-2nd Bread Freedom Dignity Humanity

  11. Egypt Revolution Timeline Before 25th Jan-11 Mar-22nd May-27th Mar-19th Mar-23rd Feb-11th Feb-12th Jan-25th Jan-28th Mar-3rd Mar-5th Apr-1st Feb-2nd Suffering from Inflation and lack of the day to day life necessities Plans for Gamal Mubarak to rule after his dad Law wasn’t applied in all scenarios

  12. Egypt Revolution Timeline Before 25th Jan-11 Mar-22nd May-27th Mar-19th Mar-23rd Feb-11th Feb-12th Jan-25th Jan-28th Mar-3rd Mar-5th Apr-1st Feb-2nd Shutting down The Internet and Mobile Services Hundreds of thousand demonstrated peacefully faced with violence from the police forces. Police forces were withdrawn from the streets, and the military was deployed. curfew was declared a day after.

  13. Egypt Revolution Timeline Before 25th Jan-11 Mar-22nd May-27th Mar-19th Mar-23rd Feb-11th Feb-12th Jan-25th Jan-28th Mar-3rd Mar-5th Apr-1st Feb-2nd Violence escalated as waves of Mubarak supporters met anti-government protesters, and some Mubarak supporters rode on camels and horses into Tahrir Square, reportedly wielding swords and sticks. After Mubarak made another televised address and offered several concessions on the 1st of Feb-11

  14. Egypt Revolution Timeline Before 25th Jan-11 Mar-22nd May-27th Mar-19th Mar-23rd Feb-11th Feb-12th Jan-25th Jan-28th Mar-3rd Mar-5th Feb-2nd Apr-1st 11th of Feb-11 “Friday of Departure”

  15. Egypt Revolution Timeline Before 25th Jan-11 Mar-22nd May-27th Mar-19th Mar-23rd Feb-11th Feb-12th Jan-25th Jan-28th Mar-3rd Mar-5th Feb-2nd Apr-1st “1st revolution were protestors clean the streets after them”

  16. Egypt Revolution Timeline Before 25th Jan-11 Mar-22nd May-27th Mar-19th Mar-23rd Feb-11th Feb-12th Jan-25th Jan-28th Mar-5th Mar-3rd Feb-2nd Apr-1st Ahmed Shafik stepped down as Prime Minister and was replaced by Essam Sharaf.

  17. Egypt Revolution Timeline Before 25th Jan-11 Mar-22nd May-27th Mar-19th Mar-23rd Feb-11th Feb-12th Jan-25th Jan-28th Mar-3rd Mar-5th Feb-2nd Apr-1st State Security Intelligence (SSI) buildings were raided across Egypt by protesters

  18. Egypt Revolution Timeline Before 25th Jan-11 Mar-22nd May-27th Mar-19th Mar-23rd Feb-11th Feb-12th Jan-25th Jan-28th Mar-3rd Mar-5th Feb-2nd Apr-1st The constitutional referendum was held and passed by 77.27%

  19. Egypt Revolution Timeline Before 25th Jan-11 Mar-22nd May-27th Mar-19th Mar-23rd Feb-11th Feb-12th Jan-25th Jan-28th Mar-3rd Mar-5th Feb-2nd Apr-1st Parts of the Interior Ministry building catch fire during police demonstrations outside

  20. Egypt Revolution Timeline Before 25th Jan-11 Mar-22nd May-27th Mar-19th Mar-23rd Feb-11th Feb-12th Jan-25th Jan-28th Mar-3rd Mar-5th Feb-2nd Apr-1st The Egyptian Cabinet orders a law criminalizing protests and strikes that hampers work at private or public establishments. Under the new law, anyone organizing or calling for such protests will be sentenced to jail and/or a fine of LE500,000

  21. Egypt Revolution Timeline Before 25th Jan-11 Mar-22nd May-27th Mar-19th Mar-23rd Feb-11th Feb-12th Jan-25th Jan-28th Mar-3rd Mar-5th Feb-2nd Apr-1st "Save the Revolution" Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators filled Tahrir Square for the largest protest in weeks, demanding that the ruling military council move faster to dismantle lingering aspects of the old regime.[123] Protestors demanded trial for Hosni Mubarak, Gamal Mubarak, Ahmad Fathi Sorour, Safwat El-Sherif and Zakaria Azmi as well.

  22. Egypt Revolution Timeline Before 25th Jan-11 Mar-22nd May-27th Mar-19th Mar-23rd Feb-11th Feb-12th Jan-25th Jan-28th Mar-3rd Mar-5th Feb-2nd Apr-1st "Second Friday of Anger" • Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators filled Tahrir Square, besides tens of thousands in each of Alexandra, Suez, Ismailia, Gharbeya and other areas; in the largest demonstrations since ousting Mubarak's Regime. Protestors • Demanded No Military Trials for Civilians, the Egyptian Constitution to be made before the Parliament Elections and for all the old regime gang and those who killed protestors in January and February to be put on fair Trial

  23. THE STATE OF EGYPT, 2010 • Chronically Hesitant, Despotic, and Corrupt Ruling Regimes • (from foreign to national, civic to military, • socialist to capitalist, reformative to corruptive ) • Declined and Marginalized Regional and International Influence of Egypt. • Slowly Developing Economy and Population • (unemployment, social injustice, overpopulation ) • Prevailing Triad of: Poverty, Illiteracy, and Ill-Health

  24. THE STATE OF EGYPT, 2011 • Towards an Egyptian age of Renaissance of Thinking \to Chart the Future. • Would Egypt invent the first 21st century new form of democracy ? • Egypt 2020 RT-Delphi Study • Developments that may shape the future of Egypt • What would insure the revolution momentum? • What would counter the revolution spirit?

  25. EGYPT 2020 RT-DELPHI STUDYTHIRTY-FOUR DEVELOPMENTS THAT MIGHT SHAPE THE FUTURE OF EGYPT • As listed by, their average likelihood to be achieved by 2020 • As rated by , Panel invited by the Cairo Node of the Millennium Project • As expressed by the public opinion and media Al-Ahram weekly, The Egyptian Gazette newspapers..etc

  26. INSURING THE REVOLUTIONARYSPIRIT AND MOMENTUM • Continued persistent uprising and peaceful demonstrations in “Friday's million marches”, whenever required. • making real gains politically, socially, economically and spiritually. • defending their rights. • confronting despotic regime forces. • Old power structures have to be eliminated, or at least weakened. • New power has to be institutionalized, fair balanced division, sharing and control of power. • Establish one or two parties for the civic state.

  27. INSURING THE REVOLUTIONARY SPIRIT AND MOMENTUM [Cont’d] • Fast and sustainable successes in socio-economic development. • Tough and drastic lawful measures to fend off sectarian clashes and calm down religious tensions (within the framework of law ). • Participation of the public and private sectors , in adopting the values of the revolution, and supporting social solidarity. • Change the tactics of the revolutionary movement and discourse, to identify and present key issues for the future, to the people allover the country.

  28. COUNTERINGTHE REVOLUTIONARY SPIRIT • Re-emergence of political corruption, among political parties by former politicians of the former regime. • Creating state of unrest, by uncontrollable reactions, for the ruling Military Council, to use violence. • External turmoil emerging from the neighboring countries. • External interference of some countries, to achieve certain objectives. • Lack of commitment by the government pledges. • Divisions with and among the revolutionaries. • Resorting to foreign aid with tough preconditions, to avoid national bankruptcy.

  29. SCENARIOS • Democratic Majority State, Despite Despotic Opposition Minority (Plausible) • Military Oligarchy Facing Civic Anarchy (Possible) • Theocratic Not Secular State • (Least probable)

  30. Egypt 2020 RT-DELPHI Study Pros Cons Detailed and Covering all the aspects Very long especially in the given on going changes. Way Forward • Continue the study for 1 year. • Host the questionnaire on EAFRA website for better follow up and regular analysis on the results. • Shorter questionnaires will be formulated each covering a certain topic and will be sent to the experts over a period of time to cover all the up coming changes.

  31. Egypt 2020 RT-DELPHI Study Is Still Ongoing at the time of printing. Those interested in the continuing study, should contact Dr. Kamal Zaki Mahmoud Shaeer, Chair of The Millennium Project Node in Egypt and the Egyptian-Arab Futures Research Association at kzmahmoud@hotmail.com. www.eafra.org

  32. EAFRA new Website To Interact with the Youth Questionnaires and its Data base

  33. شكـــــــراTHANK YOU

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