Population and Employment Trends in the South: Rural Renaissance or Urban Sprawl? Mitch Renkow

Population and Employment Trends in the South: Rural Renaissance or Urban Sprawl? Mitch Renkow Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics North Carolina State University

Trends in Population Growth in the 1990s • In some states rural counties grew nearly as much as urban counties, while in others rural population growth lagged

Population Growth in the South, 1990 - 2000 State Rural Counties Metro Counties All Counties AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN VA WV 9.2% 9.4% 25.2% 18.5% 8.6% 3.6% 7.5% 16.0% 6.0% 13.2% 16.7% 10.2% -0.2% 10.5% 19.1% 23.4% 30.2% 10.9% 6.7% 17.6% 24.3% 12.2% 15.9% 16.6% 15.8% 2.3% 10.1% 13.7% 23.5% 26.4% 9.7% 5.9% 10.5% 21.4% 9.7% 15.1% 16.7% 14.5% 0.8%

Trends in Population Growth in the 1990s • In some states rural counties grew nearly as much as urban counties, while in others rural population growth lagged • 13% of counties in the South experienced population decreases. Most (85%) were rural counties, and most of those were not adjacent to metro counties

Southern Counties Losing Population in the 1990s State No. of Counties % AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NC OK SC TN VA WV 12 20 0 8 14 14 13 3 20 4 0 11 27 17.9 26.7 0.0 5.0 11.7 21.9 15.9 3.0 26.0 8.7 0.0 10.5 49.1

Trends in Population Growth in the 1990s • In some states rural counties grew nearly as much as urban counties, while in others rural population growth lagged • 13% of counties in the South experienced population decreases. Most (85%) were rural counties • Most rural population growth occurred in counties adjacent to urban areas • Most population growth in remote rural counties associated with retirement communities, tourism

4,500 1980 - 1990 4,000 1990 - 2000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Metro Counties All Counties -500 Rural Counties -1,000 Net Migration in the 1980s and 1990s ‘000 migrants

700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 AL AR GA KY MS NC OK SC TN WV -100,000 LA Net Migration in the 1990s by State Rural Counties Metro Counties

Commuters’ Share of the Workforce in 2000 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Rural Counties Metro Counties All Counties In-Commuters Out-Commuters

50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% FL AR OK AL NC TN SC LA KY WV MS GA VA Commuters’ Share of the Workforce by State In-Commuters Out-Commuters

Distance Traveled by Inter-county Commuters in the South in 2000 No. of Commuters (‘000) Distance (miles) % of Commuters 0 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 50 - 60 60 - 70 70 - 80 > 80 875 2,288 3,460 1,154 392 166 102 54 332 9.9 25.9 39.2 13.1 4.4 1.9 1.2 0.6 3.8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Trends in Commuting • Steady increases in the mobility of workers due to: • -- Falling transportation costs -- Growing numbers of dual income households -- Increased importance of residential amenities • Significant growth in rural-urban commuting, especially in rural counties located near cities Rural population growth strongly linked to expanding of urban labor markets

Allocation of New Jobs among Different Kinds of Workers in North Carolina Kind of Workers Jobs in Metro Counties Jobs in Rural Counties New in-commuters Previous out-commuters Previously unemployed New residents 32.4% 37.3% 1.7% 28.7% 51.5% 28.4% 1.7% 18.5% Whether or not these phenomena are common in other Southern states is an open question . . .

Issues Associated with Population Growth • Economic impacts • -- Jobs • -- Housing prices • Demands for public goods and services • -- Who pays? • -- Who benefits? • Land use planning • -- Farmland conversion • -- Zoning • Culture clashes

Conclusions • Continued increases in “suburbanization” likely in rural counties adjacent to urban areas • Increasing strains on local public finances in rural counties • Farmland conversion issues aren’t going away • Land use planning becoming more important than ever

Population and Employment Trends in the South: Rural Renaissance or Urban Sprawl? Mitch Renkow