1 / 14

An Introduction of the BET model -An Integrated Assessment Model Including End-Use Technologies

An Introduction of the BET model -An Integrated Assessment Model Including End-Use Technologies. Hiromi Yamamoto Masahiro Sugiyama Junichi Tsutsui Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Tokyo 2013/07/30 32 nd USAEE / IAEE North American Conference, Anchorage.

havard
Download Presentation

An Introduction of the BET model -An Integrated Assessment Model Including End-Use Technologies

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. An Introduction of the BET model-An Integrated Assessment Model Including End-Use Technologies Hiromi Yamamoto Masahiro Sugiyama Junichi Tsutsui Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Tokyo 2013/07/3032ndUSAEE/IAEE North American Conference, Anchorage

  2. Background • An IAM(integrated assessment model) , which evaluates interactions between energy, the economy, and the environment, is a tool to guide policy discussions for long-term, global sustainable development (Weyant1999). • Recently, advanced end-use technologies have received increasing attention as a key component of options for climate change mitigation (Kyle et al. 2011). Advanced electric technologies include heat-pump water heaters and EVs. • A combination of low-carbon power generation (such as renewables, thermal power with CCS, and nuclear) and advanced electric end-use technologies are a promising solution for drastic GHG(greenhouse gas) reduction.

  3. Objectives • To develop an IAM (integrated assessment model) based on a general equilibrium technique (Ramsey’s optimal growth theory) and including advanced end-use technologies such as heat pump water-heater and electric vehicles. • Using the model, to analyze the effects of the advanced end use technologies. • We conduct on-off analyses of the advanced end-use technologies and evaluate the importance of the advanced end use technologies.

  4. BET model • Basic-Energy-Economy-Environment-and-Enduse Technology Model (BET). • A MERGE-RICE type global model hard-linked with enduse technologies like MARKAL-MACRO. • The economic module is an one-sector CES(constant elasticity substitution) type production function. • The energy module is a bottom-up type model that describes vintage of energy facilities and electric load curves. • The primary energy includes coal, oil, natural gas, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, photovoltaic, and backstop. • World 13 regions; Simulation period: 2010 to 2230 with 10 year-intervals; an NLP model.

  5. Figure The model structure

  6. Table Energy Services In the model

  7. Regions and Energy systems

  8. Formulation of production function: Patty -Clay type -function. YN: (patty) production; Yt = (1-ζ) Yt-1 + YNt; ζ is a deplation rate. KN: (patty) capital, ln: (patty) labor. DN: Energyservices; DN = f(E). Income identity: EC is the sum of energy systems cost including enduse technologies. Objective function: θ: Negishi weight, df: discount rate..

  9. population Basic performance of BET. GDP TPES

  10. GDP losses(Base case =0%) GHG accumulation targets Off: Advanced End use Techs Are Off; On: Advanced End use Techs Are On.

  11. FigPower generation,upper: 2050lower:2100

  12. FigEnergy services,upper: 2050lower:2100

  13. FigEnergy services in vehicle services,upper: 450-off Lower: 450-on

  14. Conclusions • Using the BET model, we have conducted simulations and obtained the following results. • (1) Turning off the advanced end-use technologies results in GDP losses. Such losses become larger with a more stringent climate policy. The advanced end-use technologies are a way to contain GDP loss when the climate target is stringent. • (2) Electricity demand is relatively stable, but non-electricity demand decreases as the GHG constraints become more stringent. This is because electricity can be supplied using various low-carbon options such as renewables, nuclear , and thermalpower with CCS. • (3) Electrification rates based on energy services are high under stringent GHG constraints. The combination of electrification and advanced electric end-use technologies is a powerful method to achieve strict GHG constraints.

More Related