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Global Economic and Energy Outlook International Aviation Fuel Conference and Exhibition

Global Economic and Energy Outlook International Aviation Fuel Conference and Exhibition. Christof Ruehl, Chief Economist, BP p.l.c . Beijing, April 2012. Outline. Global trends Energy markets Transport fuel outlook Risks and unknowns. 2. Income growth: The long run. GDP growth.

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Global Economic and Energy Outlook International Aviation Fuel Conference and Exhibition

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  1. Global Economic and Energy OutlookInternational Aviation Fuel Conference and Exhibition Christof Ruehl, Chief Economist, BP p.l.c. Beijing, April 2012

  2. Outline Global trends Energy markets Transport fuel outlook Risks and unknowns 2

  3. Income growth: The long run GDP growth GDP growth per capita 2010-2030 % per year % per year 1970-1990 1990-2010 2010-2030 3

  4. Not so new: Income and population shares World GDP shares World population shares % of world GDP % of world population * *Includes UK, France, Germany, Italy 4

  5. Medium term growth risks Consumption and inequality Central banks’ balance sheets Gini coefficient % of GDP Trillion $US* % of world GDP Fed + ECB + BoJ (rhs) *At constant 2011 exchange rates 5

  6. Outline Global trends Energy markets Transport fuel outlook Risks and unknowns 6

  7. Energy demand growth Billion toe Billion toe * Non-OECD OECD *Includes biofuels

  8. India and China, again Population Energy GDP Billion Billion toe Trillion, $2010 PPP Rest of World India China 8

  9. Energy consumption follows development India China Billion toe Billion toe * *Includes biofuels 9

  10. Patterns of economic development Industrialisation Energy intensity Industry as %GDP Toe per thousand $2010 GDP China India $2010 GDP per capita (000s) 10

  11. Industry vs. transport in energy demand Primary energy growth by fuel China: final energy demand by sector Billion toe Billion toe China India * *Includes biofuels 11

  12. Energy: Consumption growth by sector By sector and region to 2030 By sector and fuel to 2030 Billion toe Billion toe Final energy use Inputs to power Final energy use Inputs to power

  13. Outline Global trends Energy markets Transport fuel outlook Risks and unknowns 13

  14. Global liquids, demand and supply Demand Supply Mb/d 2030 level Other Other Iraq S&C Am Saudi Mid East Oil Sands NGLs Biofuels India Brazil US China 14

  15. Liquids supply growth - OPEC and North America Liquids supply by type Growth from 2010 to 2030 Mb/d Mb/d OPEC share (rhs) Other Saudi Arabia Brazil US Shale Oil Iraq Biofuels NGLs Canadian Oil Sands Other RoW 15

  16. Liquids demand growth: non-OECD transport Liquids demand by sector Liquids demand by product group Mb/d Mb/d 16

  17. Non-fossil fuels: Growth led by OECD renewables OECD Non-OECD Billion toe Billion toe Renewables in power Biofuels 17

  18. Global renewables in power and transport Share of power generation Share of transport sector EU Other OECD World Non-OECD

  19. Transport fuel demand By energy type By Region Billion toe Billion toe 19

  20. Aviation fuel demand By energy type Aviation Demand by Region Billion toe Mb/d Oil - aviation Oil - other 20

  21. Outline Global trends Energy markets Transport fuel outlook Risks and unknowns 21

  22. Energy imbalances improve in the Americas FSU Europe N. America Mid-East China India Key: Billion toe Gas Oil Coal Africa S. & C. America Other Asia Pacific Net importers Net exporters 22

  23. Import dependency rises in Asia and Europe India China EU27 US Billion toe Importshare of respective fuel 42% 80% 47% 91% 80% 94% 32% 40% 6% 57% 199020102030 199020102030 199020102030 199020102030 23

  24. Carbon emission growth: More action coming? Global CO2 emissions from energy use Billion tonnes CO2 Billion tonnes CO2 Base Case Policy Case Coal IEA “450 Scenario” Non-OECD Gas OECD Oil 24

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