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Global warming and severe weather : hurricanes

Global warming and severe weather : hurricanes. Hurricanes and global warming. More hurricanes Warming SST’s (sea surface temperatures) suggest greater source of energy for hurricanes, hence they should be more frequent. (1944-2005). SST.

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Global warming and severe weather : hurricanes

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  1. Global warming and severe weather: hurricanes

  2. Hurricanes and global warming • More hurricanes • Warming SST’s (sea surface temperatures) suggest greater source of energy for hurricanes, hence they should be more frequent

  3. (1944-2005) SST N. Atlantic hurricane record best after 1944 with aircraft surveillance.

  4. Hurricanes and global warming • Fewer hurricanes • Increased wind shear • Increasing atmospheric stability

  5. La Nina Drawing

  6. El Nino Drawing/animation

  7. Southern Oscillation and global warming • ENSO not caused by global warming • ENSO is natural cycle • More El Nino conditions under global warming

  8. Source of uncertainties • Small sample size (only a few hurricanes each year)

  9. Early view of hurricane structure, 1946

  10. Radar-based hurricane tracking, 1960

  11. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html

  12. Source of uncertainties • Difficult to separate natural and anthropogenic influences on the conditions leading to hurricane development

  13. Source of uncertainties • Different ways to quantify hurricane activity? • Strength? • Frequency? • Duration of season? • Tracks?

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